New Mexico

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

On one hand, it was extremely close in 2000 and 2004; on the other hand, Obama won it by a massive margin in 2008. Still, McCain pretty much ignored the west to live in Pennsylvania, and I suppose the state could be competitive in a closer election (and/or with Susana Martinez). All in all, I'd call it a Lean D state which could easily become a swing state.

[Kevin]

On one hand, it was extremely close in 2000 and 2004; on the other hand, Obama won it by a massive margin in 2008. Still, McCain pretty much ignored the west to live in Pennsylvania, and I suppose the state could be competitive in a closer election (and/or with Susana Martinez). All in all, I'd call it a Lean D state which could easily become a swing state.

I'd say lean/likely D for now and I think it will go to Obama in 2012. Although it will be a closer result this time around.

[sg0508]

Nothing for the democrats to worry about, although it will be somewhat tighter this go around.

[King]

Lean D.  But certainly winnable if a good GOP candidate emerges.

[NHI]

It'll be close, but Obama will probably take it.

[tmthforu94]

Lean Democratic

The state could vote for Obama with over 60%, then again, it could comfortably vote for the GOP candidate. I think it comes down to (like almost every other state) the overall conditions on election day. I think the GOP candidate (assuming it isn't someone like Bachman) is very likely to make inroads in the state, and having a popular Republican Governor will certainly help.

[pbrower2a]

On one hand, it was extremely close in 2000 and 2004; on the other hand, Obama won it by a massive margin in 2008. Still, McCain pretty much ignored the west to live in Pennsylvania, and I suppose the state could be competitive in a closer election (and/or with Susana Martinez). All in all, I'd call it a Lean D state which could easily become a swing state.

I think that you are right. President Obama maxed out in New Mexico. I just can't imagine him doing better in New Mexico or any other state that he won by a 9% or greater margin (basically DC, a Democratic gimme, any state that went for either Gore or Kerry, and Nevada. The interstate polarization that so marked the 2008 election is unlikely to be repeated, and I can see the President winning New Mexico with a 15% margin only if he wins the US popular vote with about a 15% margin (which would be 57.5% to 42.2%, which is about what Ronald Reagan did in 1984).

President Obama can hardly win re-election without winning New Mexico; without it he also loses every other state that Dubya ever won as well, and probably loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well.  I have noticed a narrowing of approval ratings for the President, with him gaining in states that he lost and weakening in states that he won. Such may reflect a weakening of intrastate polarization. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

That may be one of your shortest posts.

[TheGlobalizer]

Lean D.  But certainly winnable if a good GOP candidate emerges.

Especially if there's a Hispanic candidate on the ticket.

[Person Man]

Let's just put it this way- Republicans don't need New Mexico. Could they win it? Sure. In a big "change" election where they win places that vote the same as New Mexico does. Think the more moderate states in the Northeast and all of the Northwest.

[King]

Let's just put it this way- Republicans don't need New Mexico. Could they win it? Sure. In a big "change" election where they win places that vote the same as New Mexico does. Think the more moderate states in the Northeast and all of the Northwest.

This is a state that voted Republican in 2004 when NE and NW all voted 100% Democratic. 

[5280]

GOP doesnt need NM, should focus on states that are safe GOP or lean GOP.  Try to get back the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington)

[RJ]

I'm going to say New Mexico could become a Democratic stronghold similar to Illinois or California, especially if the GOP keeps pushing the Tea Party and its views on imigration.

[Kevin]

GOP doesnt need NM, should focus on states that are safe GOP or lean GOP.  Try to get back the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington)

Both of those in passed elections have always tempted Republicans yet deny any victory to them, and based upon recent polling both are solidly in the Obama camp despite the fact that the Pacific Northwest has suffered great economic hardship during his term. For instance, statistics on Oregon showing that it has one of the nation's highest unemployment rates, one of the fastest declines in average income, and one of the highest numbers of residents on food stamps/welfare due to a long term inability to find a job.

Anyways I digress, the Republicans and any GOP Presidential candidate would do better to focus on Nevada and Colorado instead.

[Miles]

Likely D. Obama should win it by about 10 or high single-digits, barring a Marteniz VP selection.

[Person Man]

Let's just put it this way- Republicans don't need New Mexico. Could they win it? Sure. In a big "change" election where they win places that vote the same as New Mexico does. Think the more moderate states in the Northeast and all of the Northwest.

This is a state that voted Republican in 2004 when NE and NW all voted 100% Democratic. 

That was 2004.

[TheGlobalizer]

I'm going to say New Mexico could become a Democratic stronghold similar to Illinois or California, especially if the GOP keeps pushing the Tea Party and its views on imigration.

Agree on the effect of the immigration issue, but LOL on the idea of NM becoming a Democratic stronghold.

[King]

New Mexican voters can be easily swayed by theatrics and a charismatic candidate.  It will never be a stronghold anything, even if it votes 60% for one party for a decade, there's still a likely chance it's winnable for the other side.

[RJ]

I'm going to say New Mexico could become a Democratic stronghold similar to Illinois or California, especially if the GOP keeps pushing the Tea Party and its views on imigration.

Agree on the effect of the immigration issue, but LOL on the idea of NM becoming a Democratic stronghold.

Laugh if you will, but I'll bet the GOP said the samr thing about California before 1992.

New Mexican voters can be easily swayed by theatrics and a charismatic candidate.  It will never be a stronghold anything, even if it votes 60% for one party for a decade, there's still a likely chance it's winnable for the other side.

Once again, I point to California. Let's face it---immigration and the tea party are here to stay. That accompanied with the hispanic population going no where but up equates to a real problem for Republicans in this state. I'm not saying it will be a Democratic stronghold but the evidence suggests it.

[King]

New Mexico, unlike California, Arizona, or Texas, has a majority native Hispanic population.  Immigrants are not their brothers nor an issue they care deeply about.

[Person Man]

That's a good point but simply being a native-born may not nuetralize whatever race based politics or populism that exists and is making the trends what they are. Have you been to a majority-Hispanic community in New Mexico?

[RJ]

New Mexico, unlike California, Arizona, or Texas, has a majority native Hispanic population.  Immigrants are not their brothers nor an issue they care deeply about.

It's those same native born hispanics that are so up in arms about Arizona's immigration policies.

[King]

That's a good point but simply being a native-born may not nuetralize whatever race based politics or populism that exists and is making the trends what they are. Have you been to a majority-Hispanic community in New Mexico?

Yes, I am Hispanic and currently live in a poor, largely Hispanic zip code here.  If the Republicans make it more about race than nationality, then they will lose hold of this state.  However, New Mexicans are willing to support a seriously tough immigration policy on Mexico if we keep Arizona profiling out of it.  Gov. Martinez ran with promise of one last fall and oppose Arizona's law at the same time.

It's those same native born hispanics that are so up in arms about Arizona's immigration policies.

Because it has heavy profiling aspects that effect non-Mexican citizens.  New Mexico will vote for a candidate who supports large walls, barbed wire, citizenship to attend public schools, and deportation of all illegals.  They won't vote for one who advocates officers asking for citizenship status on "suspicion" like Arizona.

[TheGlobalizer]

Have you been to a majority-Hispanic community in New Mexico?

Agree with what King said, but want to add:

This is pretty funny to ask -- just take a look at the demographics in NM.  I didn't until I moved out here 6 months ago -- the state is basically 45/45/10 white/Hispanic/Am. Indian.  There are places in NM that are 100% Hispanic and have ALWAYS BEEN.  There are few areas that have large white majorities, mostly the rural south and Santa Fe.  I live in a majority Hispanic CDP (North Valley): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Valley,_New_Mexico  Note the white/Hispanic self-ID totals add to ~130% of the population.  You can't go hardly anywhere in NM without passing through a majority-Hispanic community.

[RJ]

It's those same native born hispanics that are so up in arms about Arizona's immigration policies.

Because it has heavy profiling aspects that effect non-Mexican citizens.  New Mexico will vote for a candidate who supports large walls, barbed wire, citizenship to attend public schools, and deportation of all illegals.  They won't vote for one who advocates officers asking for citizenship status on "suspicion" like Arizona.

All I'm saying is that if the GOP hard liners have their way with more legislation not neccessarily identical but similar to Arizona's, even if it's just espoused, it will cause this state to tip drastically. I don't think New Mexico is there yet, but given 4 of the last 5 elections and the state's demographics it leans Democrat and has 4 of its 5 members of Congress from that party. In a California and Illinois both went Republican every presidential year from 1968-1988 but haven't gone that way since and are now a lost cause. I think New Mexico could be heading the same direction.