Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[jeron]

Meanwhile, Almere only at 44% at 17.00. PVV is the largest party there in the city council.

Could you please send me a link of where you are getting the turnout numbers?

You can find them on Twitter. The turnout for Almere is on the local website http://www.almere.nl/bestuur/verkiezingen/uitslagen-tweede-kamerverkiezingen-2017-voorlopig/

[jeron]

Meanwhile, Almere only at 44% at 17.00. PVV is the largest party there in the city council.

Could you please send me a link of where you are getting the turnout numbers?

And there is a website for turnout in Groningen, Utrecht and Rotterdam.
https://groningen.tweedekamer15maart.nl/?utm_campaign=woensdag+15+maart+&utm_medium=email&utm_source=iMailingtool#/

https://rotterdam.tweedekamer15maart.nl/#/

[jeron]

Many cities are now reporting that turnout is already higher than in 2012 with 1,5 hour left. Groningen e.g. at 77%

[jeron]

The AD conducted an exit poll in Heemskerk, one of the places in the Netherlands that votes closed to the national average. The results:

VVD 35
D66 19
PVV 19
CDA 18
SP 16
GL 11
PvdA 10
50PLUS 8
CU 4
FvD 3
PvdD 3
DENK 1
Pirate's party 1

Take it with a grain of salt. SGP and CU probably score low because Heemskerk isn't in the bible belt, I think these parties will be fine in the end. The high score of VVD and the low score of GL both are very surprising. But like I said: take it with a grain of salt. And perhaps Heemskerk won't be close to the national average this time. Iowa voted Obama in 2012 while being to the right of Texas in 2016.

I think they did this just at 1 polling station, so I would be very careful (as are you) to draw any conclusions.

GL is definitely too low

[jeron]

So it's probably going to be a centre-right VVD-CDA-D66-CU government. Excellent result. D66 and CU will clash, but GL and PvdA won't join VVD-CDA-D66 if there is another viable 4 party coalition so it's probably the only option. I actually don't think a formation with those 4 parties should take very long.

What about the possibility of VVD-D66-GL-PvdA? It's difficult for me to see what motivation the CDA would have to go into coalition with Rutte. If they refuse to participate, they essentially force Rutte into purple plus and can position themselves as the main party of the right at the next election. What incentive do they have to play nice?

At this point there's no majority for such a coalition. 33+19+14+9= 75. This coalition also wouldn't have a majority in the senate where it has 35 of 75 seats. That makes it very unlikely.

[jeron]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

CDA voters are gradually dying. Among people aged 65 and over CDA still has 20% of the vote, in all the other age groups it is about 10%. PvdA now has 9 seats and I wouldn't be at all surprised if CDA gets less than 10 seats in the next 10 to 15 years. CDA's highs are getting lower and that probably means its lows will also be lower.

CDA membership:
1980: 150.000
1990: 125.000
2000: 82.000
2017: 47.000

[jeron]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Interesting thoughts, particularly the one about Balkende. I'm surprised though that you think the Duth Left will not come out of this feeling disappointed. PvdA have lost 28 seats, GL gained 10, D66 7. SP lost one. Does´t look good.

And D66 is a progressive but not a leftist party.
PvdA voters went everywhere: PvdD gained 3, Denk gained 3, 50Plus gained 2.

[jeron]

Apparently PvdA did in fact lead in a municipality: Sint-Eustatius, according to Wikipedia. NOS doesn't have results for the overseas territories; anyone have them?

PvdA didn't win on Sint-Eustatius, it was CDA which had a local candidate. Turnout: 23.2%
CDA 76.8%
D66 6.2%
GL 3.4%
A1 3.2%
PVV 1.8%
SP 1.8%
VVD 1.4%
PvdA 1.1%

Saba: turnout 50%. D66 largest party (22%).

Bonaire: turnout 22%
D66 28.6%
CDA 16.2 %
VVD 15.3%
Pvda 8.6%
GL 8.7%
PVV 4.8%

[jeron]

How did the native dutch working class, and the dutch poor vote?

I don't know the exact figures, but generally PVV and SP. although, there seem to be more people voting VVD in this category nowadays. PvdA has largely lost its support in this category, except for people aged 60+.

[jeron]

Judging by the results I think the PVV "won" Hindustanis

1. lol

2. That's an amusingly old fashioned phrasing (I presume a literal trans. from Dutch). Where in India are these people from?

The Dutch Hindustani didn't' come from India to the Netherlands directly.  After slavery was abolished in the Dutch colony of Surinam, the Dutch recruited Indian people to work in Surinam. After Surinam independence many Surinamese people came to the Netherlands including the Hindustani. They are still called Hindustani in both the Netherlands and Surinam.
People who come from India are called Indian in Dutch, Hindustani is only used for the Indian people from Surinam.

[jeron]

The PVV today announced that they will stand in five additional municipalities in the local elections, which will take place in March 2018. Since 2010 the PVV have been part of the municipal councils in Almere (where they are the largest party) and The Hague (where they are the second party), but next year they will also give it a shot in Enschede, Almelo, Twenterand, Urk and Rotterdam. Enschede and Almelo are historically industrial cities in Eastern Overijssel; while Almelo is truly in decline, Enschede seems to have found a way to "reinvent" itself and is the home of Twente University. The PVV did well in both municipalities in the general election: 18% in Almelo, 15.6% in Enschede. Twenterand is a rural municipality (Freek could probably tell us more about it); they got 15.6% there. I don't really know why they picked this place; perhaps they think they have some talented people there. Urk is the heart of the Bible Belt. They will get 2-3 seats at most there.

PVV choosing Twenterand is quite interesting. It is unlike the other rural municipalities in Twente. Villages as Vriezenveen, Vroomshoop or Westerhaar were founded for peat extraction (similar to Drenthe) and later people worked in the textile industry and in construction. It is still relatively poor, with higher than average unemployment, but it is not as bad as in Eastern Groningen. Politically it is on the edge of the Bible Belt (CU+SGP 14% together), and also PVV scores higher than in other municipalities in Twente (but still around the national average).

Only Vriezenveen is truly on the edge of the Bible Belt. places like Vroomshoop and Westerhaar are the poorest parts of the municipality and PVV scored the highest there (one polling station in Vroomshoop had 34% OVV) These villages are probably as bad as bad as Eastern Groningen economically.

[jeron]

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

Most parties don't run in every municipality.

GL, D66 and SP have a low presence in the Bible belt
SGP doesn't run in most cities
CU and SGP generally stay out of heavy Catholic areas.
PvdA didn't run in 2014 in several smaller municipalities last time like Urk, Renswoude and Nieuwkoop.

[jeron]

...wait this is actually happening? Lawd.

You mean a VVD-CDA-D66-GL coalition? I still think the most likely scenario is that the talks collapse in a couple of weeks and a VVD-CDA-D66-CU cabinet will be formed, but I wouldn't be surprised anymore if we actually end up with VVD-CDA-D66-GL.

 a coalition with GL is probably more likely than a coalition with CU at the moment. D66 will do everything to keep GL in these talks and prevent a coalition with CU. if the talks with GL do fail, it will take many more months to form a government with CU (or another party).

[jeron]

There has also been talks about the positions of a new cabinet, althouh it doesnt mean that the coalition negotiations will be succesfully.  In a new coalition the VVD will get 4 ministers, CDA & D66 get 3 and GL will get 2.

According to a source (RTL) the VVD will of course get the prime minister, but also wants to get Social Affair, which Zijlstra wants to get it. CDA logically will get Finance, but also D66 have shown interest in it as well as Foreign Affair (it would of course be either at best for D66). D66 also want to get the Ministry of Economic Affair en Education, the latter Pechtold might get that position. Finally, GL has made it clear it wants to get the Ministry of Environment and Development Aid

It does seem like the four parties are getting closer a to a deal and if they did not think that they are able to succeed they'd have given up by now. Of course there is no real alternative except for a VVD-CDA-D66 minority government.

[jeron]

@Rogier: Fortunately, the NKO still exists; it just takes some time, up to a year or even more, to come up with all the data for an election. For all NKO studies until (and including) 2012, see http://www.dpes.nl/nl/

Hmmm...for some reason there is no downloadable file for me on their pages though? Are you getting that or do I need to switch to a Dutch VPN?

Also, can you explain D66's stance? Is assisted suicide really a vote winner or something really urgent? It seems strange that they would hold up on that.

It became a hot issue during the campaign.  But there are more social isses which D66 sees as important such as legalisation of softdrugs and actieve donor system etc. All of these progressive issues will certainly be blocked in a conservative with the CU, so there is nothing to win when D66 join such a coalition. D66 just doesn't want to support a christian conservative cabinet as they would lose many progressive voters to PvdA and GL.

It's not just about the social issues of course. The previous time D66 entered a coalition with VVD and CDA it was reduced to zero seats in the polls and eventually ended up with 3 seats partly thanks to the Turkish vote. D66 wants to prevent that from happening again at all cost.

[jeron]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

I'm not Dutch, so take my opinion with a grain of salt...

The culture of death is the number one reason I support traditional parties. Compromising on those issues would represent a fundamental betrayal, akin to the Socialist Party cutting taxes for millionaires. Sure family friendly taxes are nice, but they are a secondary issue. If  I were Dutch and CU were to continue to compromise like this, it would make me into a safe SGP voter for a very long time.

I think that is true for many CU voters as well, but apparently Segers is now very keen to get to the negiotating table.

[jeron]

How do CU supporters feel about that? From what little you told me, I would be pissed.

Most of them will be pissed too. It is difficult to see what CU can achieve in a coalition if this happens. CU voters that I know care deeply about this issue and will be disappointed. To be sure, a "compromise" would not mean that CU vote for such a proposal but rather that the issue would simply not be part of the coalition deal and that D66 get to find a majority for it outside the coalition. Of course, this is essentially still a form of capitulation and I did not expect it from Segers after his sabre-rattling on the issue during and after the campaign.

I don't believe Pechtold is truly worried about the stability of VVD-CDA-D66-CU. There are plenty of parties that are willing to provide occasional support on a case-by-case basis. He is rather worried about the electoral prospects of his party, with Jesse Klaver in the opposition being ready to attract a lot of D66 voters. I do think he needed the progressive crown jewels to show his base that D66 are able to achieve things in the government.

Segers always can demand tax cuts for single earners (single earners pay more income tax than dual earners for non-Dutch posters). I suppose most CU voters will forget this if they get their €€€. But I'm a VVD voter so I probably shouldn't assume everyone is as materialistic as we are .

I'm not Dutch, so take my opinion with a grain of salt...

The culture of death is the number one reason I support traditional parties. Compromising on those issues would represent a fundamental betrayal, akin to the Socialist Party cutting taxes for millionaires. Sure family friendly taxes are nice, but they are a secondary issue. If  I were Dutch and CU were to continue to compromise like this, it would make me into a safe SGP voter for a very long time.

In the (likely) compromise they wouldn't vote for it, but it would be a free vote (which pretty much guarantees it passes somewhere the next 4 years). But I understand your sentiment, so I really wonder why they're doing it. In the end D66 pretty much has to negotiate with CU since there aren't really much other options. Even a cabinet without the VVD would include CU. I still think Pechtold eventually would have swallowed his euthanasia law if he had gotten his way on education, climate change and tax reform. It was just a ritual dance to show his voters he was fighting for them.

But we're not there yet, there still are a lot of differences between CU and D66, and even CU and VVD/CDA.

D66 has made quite clear in the past week that it has no interest in a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition. There will probably be negotiations for such a coalition starting monday next week, but they will either fail or come at a high cost for the other parties (and take very long).
Rutte praised Klaver lavishly at the VVD congress past weekend, so it wouldn't be at all surprised if GroenLinks returns to the negotiating table later on.

[jeron]

Wouldn't be surprised if the PvdA change their minds. But I agree, a minority coalition seems the most likely option now.

PvdA will change its mind eventually,  but just not yet. D66 is not too keen on a minority government with VVD and CDA either considering the disaster the 2003-2006 coalition was for D66. In the end, CU was not rejected because of political differences, but because D66 wants another progressive party in this coalition.

[jeron]

Do D66 (and their voters) have some sort of special antipathy to the Christian parties, or is this just a case of D66 knowing they can never pass their social liberal stuff in a cabinet containing CU?

Governing with VVD, CDA and CU would be political suicide for D66, just like governing with VVD without other parties was a disaster for PvdA.

[jeron]

Segers says chances of talks on VVD-CDA-D66-CU haven't become larger and would require a "miracle". Meanwhile, the on Atlas much beloved PvdA MP Dijsselbloem said his party will not be part of any government. This basically leaves us with VVD-CDA-D66-GL as the only option with a majority. Painful for VVD and CDA.

The chances for that coalition were small from the start. D66 made clear to VVD and CDA in March that it was not interested in such a coalition. Of course that did not change after the talks with GL failed.

[jeron]

Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) thinks there should be a center-right government with the PVV. "Voters said: the center-right has to do it. It seems logical that all parties from the center to the right negotiate. The PVV is part of the right, so they will have to find a way to do it with each other. I think that's fair to voters." Aboutaleb also wants a stricter immigration policy and says: "You can only take in refugees to the extent that it is accepted by European citizens. Solidarity does not mean even more uncontrolled migration. Instead of taking in more refugees, we should provide much more development aid. How much are we willing to contribute to improving conditions elsewhere in the world in order to end undesirable types of migration?"He thinks foreigners should have the possibility to apply for jobs in the Netherlands from Dutch embassies abroad.

Aboutaleb is one of the few PvdA-members who actually make sense sometimes. I believe he sees the problems in his own city, rather than the PvdA-elite who seem to live in an alternative universe. I doubt Rutte and Buma will ever be in for a PVV-coalition.

I wouldn't be in for a coalition with someone who blamed me for terrorist attacks in the UK

[jeron]

Seems like GreenRight are going to give it another go.

No surprise, there has not been a real alternative

[jeron]

Rutte is the new Balkende.

He very much isn't. He's been much better at maintaining his personal relations with other leaders and cooperating with other parties, and despite everybody expecting Rutte-II to collapse early there were fairly few coalition crises (bed-bad-brood being the only major one). Of course GreenRight -- if it happens, which remains to be seen -- could collapse early, but that's the norm in Dutch politics.

Seems like GreenRight are going to give it another go.

No surprise, there has not been a real alternative

There was, but Pechtold shot it down. Still hoping Rutte and Buma give Pechtold tit for tat and dump Klaver. A minority government would be a much more viable option than a government including CDA, VVD and Wijnand Duyvendak.

That's why it was no real alternative, because D66 didn't want it and Pechtold made that clear from the start. Even if there had been coalition talks they would have failed after a couple of weeks.

[jeron]

Rutte is the new Balkende.

He very much isn't. He's been much better at maintaining his personal relations with other leaders and cooperating with other parties, and despite everybody expecting Rutte-II to collapse early there were fairly few coalition crises (bed-bad-brood being the only major one). Of course GreenRight -- if it happens, which remains to be seen -- could collapse early, but that's the norm in Dutch politics.

Fair point - I meant in the sense that he will have to contend with rather sensitive parties that collapse governments for sport. GL will not make a mistake like Kunduz again so any GroenRechts government will not last too long IMO.

[/quote]

The VVD/PvdA coalition was stable because Rutte made sure relations remained good. Balkenende essentially called Bos a liar during the election campaign ('you turn and you are dishonest') and it strained relations for the next 3 years. Balkenende was a weak leader who was never able to keep any coalition together.

[jeron]

In the future I could see FvD provide support to a government from the outside, which would be exemplary for the type of change that they want: fewer backroom deals and less detailed coalition agreements, more wheeling and dealing in parliament (but there's a fine line between wheeling and dealing in parliament and creating the impression that backroom deals have only become more important; in some way a detailed coalition agreement is actually pretty transparent). But they are still very new, and of course they would be vulnerable to criticism that they would be "selling out" on the wish to completely transform the system, just like D66 have. It may happen if the next election takes place in 2021 and FvD do really well, but it's unlikely if there's a snap election.

As for the government formation, I don't have a crystal ball (as has been proved numerous times on these forums) and will perhaps be proven wrong as there are always new developments, but I think the following options are possible now. From most to least likely:

1. VVD-CDA-D66 minority
2. VVD-CDA-D66-CU
3. New election
4. VVD-CDA minority
5. VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA

Option 2 will doubtlessly be tried again now (which may take another week or two), but I don't think it will happen given the way the first attempt ended.

Option 5 is much more likely than option 3 or option 4. Option 2 will be tried, but will fail within less than a month, There will huge pressure on PvdA to start talks afterwards and they eventually budge. After that Asscher can make the case that everything has been tried and for the sake of the country etc.