Could Tennessee elect its own Andy Beshear one day?

[Alben Barkley]

Tennessee, while probably (and I hate to admit this) the most similar state to Kentucky, is also a little more "Southern" than Kentucky. A little more racially polarized, a little more religious, a little more rock-ribbed Republican in its Appalachian counties, a little more everything that benefits Republicans. This is probably why you still see some genuine ancestral Dems in Kentucky actually pulling the lever for Ds, but it hasn't really happened in recent years in Tennessee.

[Alben Barkley]

My impression of Tennessee is that Memphis as a city is much easier to be cast as the "villainous urban Democrats" role that Republicans are polarised against; in a way that isn't the same for, say, Louisville.

This is correct. Even though the rest of Kentucky does indeed hate Louisville, that has more to do with basketball than anything else lol

[Alben Barkley]

Not highly likely.

Odd numbered year gubernatorial elections can lead to results that are inconsistent with the states partisan lean.

Had Kentucky had it's Bevin vs. Beshear matchup back in 2018, Bevin would have won.

Bevin would have beaten Beshear in TN in 2019 as well given :

- TN is more conservative than KY

- TN is economically doing better than KY so his austerity measures wouldn’t be as unpopular

Definitely disagree with the claim that TN is more conservative than KY, and I would argue that transporting the circumstances of KY-GOV 2019 to TN results in a slightly bigger Dem win. Remember that KY was last left of TN in Presidential Elections in 1988. Whatever disadvantages TN Dems would have had over KY Dems from slightly more conservative Whites would be overcome and more by the existence of a somewhat more robust Black population in TN.

Literally the only reason TN votes SLIGHTLY left of KY in presidential elections is that there are more blacks in the cities; TN whites are actually SIGNIFICANTLY more conservative than KY whites. In fact, the reason the states still vote pretty much the same in presidential elections is because the lower black population in KY is more or less offset by KY whites still voting to the left of TN whites.

You can't translate this to state elections like governor at all, though. Because in recent years TN whites have shown they are voting nearly as polarized in such elections as they do in presidential elections, while KY whites have shown a remarkable willingness to be more "elastic" and there still somehow are robust pockets of "ancestral Dems" in these elections. It's similar to how Joe Manchin was able to win in 2018 while Phil Bredesen wasn't; KY and WV are... unique states. Again, KY is probably more similar to TN overall, but TN also has a Deep South influence from MS/AL/GA that KY just doesn't have. This is why the racial polarization and religiosity is higher in TN. (By these definitions, TN clearly IS more conservative than KY; if KY whites voted the same but the black population in the state was increased to match TN's, KY would always vote to TN's LEFT.) It also doesn't help that Eastern TN is historically one of the most rock-ribbed Republican places on the planet, whereas that's not the case for KY/WV, especially post-New Deal.

TL;DR: The states vote similarly in presidential elections, and the fact that TN is usually slightly left of KY in those has to do with factors that don't affect gubernatorial elections at all, where an entirely different set of rules are at play.

[Alben Barkley]

Not highly likely.

Odd numbered year gubernatorial elections can lead to results that are inconsistent with the states partisan lean.

Had Kentucky had it's Bevin vs. Beshear matchup back in 2018, Bevin would have won.

Bevin would have beaten Beshear in TN in 2019 as well given :

- TN is more conservative than KY

- TN is economically doing better than KY so his austerity measures wouldn’t be as unpopular

Definitely disagree with the claim that TN is more conservative than KY, and I would argue that transporting the circumstances of KY-GOV 2019 to TN results in a slightly bigger Dem win. Remember that KY was last left of TN in Presidential Elections in 1988. Whatever disadvantages TN Dems would have had over KY Dems from slightly more conservative Whites would be overcome and more by the existence of a somewhat more robust Black population in TN.

Literally the only reason TN votes SLIGHTLY left of KY in presidential elections is that there are more blacks in the cities; TN whites are actually SIGNIFICANTLY more conservative than KY whites. In fact, the reason the states still vote pretty much the same in presidential elections is because the lower black population in KY is more or less offset by KY whites still voting to the left of TN whites.

You can't translate this to state elections like governor at all, though. Because in recent years TN whites have shown they are voting nearly as polarized in such elections as they do in presidential elections, while KY whites have shown a remarkable willingness to be more "elastic" and there still somehow are robust pockets of "ancestral Dems" in these elections. It's similar to how Joe Manchin was able to win in 2018 while Phil Bredesen wasn't; KY and WV are... unique states. Again, KY is probably more similar to TN overall, but TN also has a Deep South influence from MS/AL/GA that KY just doesn't have. This is why the racial polarization and religiosity is higher in TN. (By these definitions, TN clearly IS more conservative than KY; if KY whites voted the same but the black population in the state was increased to match TN's, KY would always vote to TN's LEFT.) It also doesn't help that Eastern TN is historically one of the most rock-ribbed Republican places on the planet, whereas that's not the case for KY/WV, especially post-New Deal.

TL;DR: The states vote similarly in presidential elections, and the fact that TN is usually slightly left of KY in those has to do with factors that don't affect gubernatorial elections at all, where an entirely different set of rules are at play.

Are TN Whites more "reflexively Republican" in State level races because they are more inelastic? Or are they only voting Republican more heavily as a product of State Republicans nominating an overall stronger slate of candidates (and also as a result also not having to run against a Dem incumbent as well). I would think the latter.

You're missing the point. TN whites vote to the right of KY whites even in presidential elections, in every election. TN whites are clearly indeed more inelastic. As I've alluded to in other threads, you don't have a county like Breathitt voting 60%+ for a Democrat in ANY race in 2023 JUST because of "candidate quality." Partisanship has clearly not yet completely taken over all of Kentucky in every race to the extent it has in Tennessee. Also in 2018 you had the strongest possible Democratic candidate in TN and a weak Republican candidate, and he still didn't come close.