How did Beshear manage to do so well in Appalachian Kentucky in 2023?

[Alben Barkley]

As detailed in this article, the floods probably explain some of the huge swings like Breathitt and flips like Letcher.

But they can't explain everything. Hal Rogers' district, which includes Eastern and South Central Kentucky, is one of the most Republican and Trumpian in the country, and Beshear outperformed Biden there by a whopping 45 points. The Beshear brand is apparently still strong in the Eastern region of the state, with some ancestral Dems still seeing a distinction between the state party and the national Democratic Party. Way more than I thought, actually.

[Alben Barkley]

As detailed in this article, the floods probably explain some of the huge swings like Breathitt and flips like Letcher.

But they can't explain everything. Hal Rogers' district, which includes Eastern and South Central Kentucky, is one of the most Republican and Trumpian in the country, and Beshear outperformed Biden there by a whopping 45 points. The Beshear brand is apparently still strong in the Eastern region of the state, with some ancestral Dems still seeing a distinction between the state party and the national Democratic Party. Way more than I thought, actually.

Honestly, I think there's mounting evidence Appalachia peaked for R's in 2016.  It's not going to vote Dem under normal circumstances anytime soon, but I do think these voters expected something fundamentally different from Trump-era R's on economics than they got, and they clearly aren't as pro-life as assumed.  It's starting to show, particularly in oddly-timed elections when they have to be motivated to turn out.  D's didn't win anything of note, but they did do oddly well in the contested western VA races compared to the statewide results. 

I really hope you're right. It would be amazing if they realized they'd been conned and turned on the con man. But I too will believe it when I see it.

[Alben Barkley]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

It may had some effects, but Beshear didn't do that well in the areas of the state where Wallace had more support in  1968. There are no Wallace1968 - Beshear2023 counties.

Most people who voted in 1968 are dead. And there were hardly any Wallace 1968 counties in KY anyway. I really don't think that's relevant lol.

[Alben Barkley]

5. Daniel Cameron is Black.

This is the biggest factor as to why Beshear did well in Appalachian Kentucky specifically (as opposed to doing well in general, in other sorts of areas.

This is the swing map:



If race was the biggest factor in Appalachia, then why were most of the counties with the largest swings toward Cameron also in Appalachia? Are those places fake Appalachia because they're not racist?

Except most of Appalachia had the heaviest swings to Beshear. Meanwhile more of the Cameron swung counties seem to be in the Southwest.

It's interesting how there seems to be a big divide between Southeastern Appalachian Kentucky and Northeastern Appalachian Kentucky. Even more fascinating is the same divide exists between the 2000 election, where Gore did well in Southeastern Kentucky but not as well in Northeastern Kentucky, and the 2004 election in which Kerry flipped several Northeastern Kentucky counties but lost ground in Southeastern Kentucky.

The flooding, which affected the Southeast, probably has something to do with it but again does not explain everything, especially as you can see the same divide going back 20 years. It's even weirder when you have Elliott in the Northeast as the most staunchly Democratic county for so long, only to have the biggest shift away from Beshear in this election.