KY Gov - Emerson - Tied

[Alben Barkley]

Well I'm not too surprised. I've felt the race tightening in recent days. Will be a nailbiter most likely, unfortunately not an easy win for Beshear.

[Alben Barkley]

Well I'm not too surprised. I've felt the race tightening in recent days. Will be a nailbiter most likely, unfortunately not an easy win for Beshear.

Who do you think wins?

Still Beshear, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Cameron pulls it off. This is the first poll with him leading by any measure however.

[Alben Barkley]

Well I'm not too surprised. I've felt the race tightening in recent days. Will be a nailbiter most likely, unfortunately not an easy win for Beshear.

Who do you think wins?

Still Beshear, but I wouldn't be too surprised if Cameron pulls it off. This is the first poll with him leading by any measure however.

Where do you expect Beshear to lose the most ground from 2019?

Probably the Eastern Kentucky coalfield. If you look at the 2022 abortion map, I think that is more realistic for him than that he wins all those counties again. He'll win Rowan and maybe Elliott if it has a last hurrah moment, but probably not much if anything else in that region.

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

It could be, and I hope it is. I just highly doubt it based on my 30+ years of knowledge of Kentucky. Also at least a couple other polls showed the race about this tight, but no others had Beshear leading by as lopsided a margin as the last one.

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

It could be, and I hope it is. I just highly doubt it based on my 30+ years of knowledge of Kentucky. Also at least a couple other polls showed the race about this tight, but no others had Beshear leading by as lopsided a margin as the last one.

Why do you trust this poll more than the 2022 final Emerson polls?

And besides, most polls had Beshear with a modest lead. This is the only one to have Cameron actually on the verge of winning and is an outlier in that regard.

There were a couple other polls (albeit R-sponsored ones, granted) that had the race within a couple points, within the margin of error.  You're right that it is the only one that shows Cameron actually outright winning by any measure, and I still do expect Beshear to win so it's not that I really trust this poll. I just think a race that comes within a point is far more likely than a 16 point blowout, simply based on state partisanship, the national environment, and the 2019 results.

[Alben Barkley]

I feel the need to tell everyone that it is highly unlikely that Cameron closed a 16-point gap in just a month, but Atlas is gonna Atlas.

Well, it's also highly unlikely that there ever was a 16 point gap.

Then what exactly was the issue with the first poll?

Outlier, like Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020.

How do you know this is not an outlier like the 2022 ones that had Oz, Masters, Laxalt leading?

It could be, and I hope it is. I just highly doubt it based on my 30+ years of knowledge of Kentucky. Also at least a couple other polls showed the race about this tight, but no others had Beshear leading by as lopsided a margin as the last one.

Why do you trust this poll more than the 2022 final Emerson polls?

And besides, most polls had Beshear with a modest lead. This is the only one to have Cameron actually on the verge of winning and is an outlier in that regard.

There were a couple other polls (albeit R-sponsored ones, granted) that had the race within a couple points, within the margin of error.  You're right that it is the only one that shows Cameron actually outright winning by any measure, and I still do expect Beshear to win so it's not that I really trust this poll. I just think a race that comes within a point is far more likely than a 16 point blowout, simply based on state partisanship, the national environment, and the 2019 results.

Yes it’s more likely than a 16 point blowout, but that doesn’t necessarily make it more likely than a modest 3-4 point Beshear win.

I don't disagree. I wouldn't be shocked by anything from Cameron +3 to Beshear +5 or so. Anything beyond that in either direction would be a surprise.