IA-Selzer: Grassley +12

[Alben Barkley]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

[Alben Barkley]

So the last poll suggested a national environment far more Democratic than expected. This poll suggests one more about in line with what was expected. It could have been worse at least. Basically suggests the Senate is still Toss-up/Tilt R. As mentioned, Iowa was 12 points to the right of the nation in 2020, which would make this squarely a neutral year.

Cope. Grassley is a flawed incumbent at this point and likely will underperform, plus IA has the most D favorable early vote. This is looking like an actual tidal wave.

How is this cope? I haven't been under any illusions about Dems actually winning for weeks. I've followed the evidence and the polls and the national environment as it has changed in real time. "Grassley will likely underperform" is a pretty much baseless statement (you could just as easily say "Franken is a flawed challenger") that is pure cope from you because you are now actively rooting for the fall of democracy just so you can be proven right in your eternally dooming outlook apparently. You're getting to the point of being insufferably unpleasant AND irrational, frankly, and it's damn near enough for me to put you on ignore. Give it a rest. It's one thing to doom because you hope for the best but expect the worst, but you actually relishing in this apparently is sick and bizarre.

[Alben Barkley]

Honestly I thought we would see something like 54-43 that indicate that the undecideds in the last poll were all leaning republican. This implies that the democrats have inexplicably lost ground

It's not inexplicable necessarily, it fits with what we've seen across the country. Dems have clearly lost ground. "It's the economy, stupid!" and voters having the memories of goldfish would probably be why.

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.kcci.com/article/brenna-bird-iowa-attorney-general/41738831
Accolades for IndyRep. He got this one right and I got this one wrong.

A guy who thought this race would be an easy R win, along with Pennsylvania, and thought NH would be be at least closer for Rs than WI would be for Ds, because "muh fundamentals" and "muh partisan lean" and "muh actual special elections held this year don't count for anything, idiot" doesn't deserve any "accolades" because he was technically right in a coin flip race that again, he thought would be far from a coin flip.