These "likely voter" models are a joke. And they are going to (yet again) be so vastly, comically off that the next polling "scandal" will be about how horribly inaccurate these stupid models are now.
Mark my words.
lol if only you spent the same amount of time/energy critiquing polls in 2020 instead of gloating about them and how accurate they'd be and predicting a fantasy landslide that even those polls didn't support.
lol if only any of that ever actually happened instead of only in fantasies inside your mind
I took into account the possibility that the polls were way off in 2020 by correctly predicting Biden would win at least 290 EVs (2016+NE-02/MI/PA/WI/AZ -- in that order!) and possibly as many as 413 EVs (assuming a polling error FAVORABLE to Biden, which could NOT be ruled out based on elections as recent as 2012!)
At no point did I say he was definitely going to win a landslide based on the polls, and at no point did I say the polls were infallible. What I DID say is that the polls were consistently showing a Biden lead so significant that an UNPRECEDENTED and VERY UNLIKELY error would have to occur for Trump to win, and I was totally right about that (as was Nate Silver, by the way). My prediction was more accurate than those of most so-called "experts." Much as certain people here would like to skew it otherwise in order to paint me as some kind of hack making outlandishly optimistic claims for Dems, that literally never happened. All of you, every last one of you, without fail, who has tried to do that has completely misrepresented what I actually said and/or taken it out of context. What I ACTUALLY said AND predicted, on record, was that I figured Biden would win at least 290 EVs. On my personal map for the final results, I deliberately flipped every state that could possibly go to Biden his way for 413 EVs, and BEFORE the election even occurred I outright said that I was doing that more out of hope than reason. Because I didn't actually KNOW which way the polls would be off by (though I ALWAYS assumed they would be off a little at least, and have NEVER at any time in history blindly believed polls), and just figured I might as well go all-in on hoping they'd be off in a way that would favor my side.
In any case, I was criticizing polls left and right long before the 2020 election and I continue to do so now. In this case, we have pollsters who apparently haven't even learned from the CA-GOV election that occurred mere weeks ago, let alone the 2017 VA-GOV election. They deserve ridicule for their outlandish "unskewing" procedures as a result. I remain adamantly convinced that my own beliefs about what is actually going on in the minds of voters and on the ground is correct. Nothing I have seen from any pollster or the results of actual elections (including the KY-GOV 2019 election in which I was maybe the only person on the entire forum to be right on the money, INCLUDING my confidently ridiculing a poll shortly before the election which had Bevin up by eight) has dissuaded me into thinking otherwise.
Fact of the matter remains that I have NEVER actually predicted a SINGLE election result wrong overall in my entire history on this site. I have predicted a couple highly specific county votes wrong, yes, but EVEN THEN was off only by a few hundred votes and fractions of a percent, and we're talking counties many others predicted would have been landslide victories for Rs. (Namely, Franklin KY and Monongalia WV.) But my record as far as predicting the overall results of ANY major race on this site remains undefeated.
And, on a related note, I have to say it's amazing how the doomers on this site have shamelessly tried to spin their miserable, utter failure to come even remotely close to correctly predicting the 2020 results into some kind of win for them. Literally all of it comes down to "Well, Biden didn't win as big as FDR or Reagan or something, so it doesn't count!" Absolutely ridiculous. Even if you want to call your nonsense a "moral victory," it really wasn't even that as Biden ultimately won an NPV victory on the scale of Obama 2012 and electoral victory that literally matched Trump 2016. It wasn't even all that close, frankly. And was certainly WELL within my range of predicted outcomes! Granted, I didn't think GA over NC was all that likely at first, but early on election night, I changed my tune! There's proof in that thread that by 5 AM I had the race completely predicted down to every last EV, long before most people did.
Oh and I also find it EXTRA funny how some on the other side call ME a "doomer" now. Folks, I am not nor have I ever been a tribalist. I literally just call it as I see it at all times, simple as that. In 2020 I thought Trump was screwed, period. Nothing anyone said changed that, and rightfully so. Today, I think Biden is in a real bad spot and needs to turn it around quickly and if he DOESN'T that LIKELY is very bad for Dems next year. But I also still think T-Mac will win comfortably in the end and that Biden's fate is by no means sealed. I am simply a realist. I know that pisses off ideologues on all sides, but it is what it is lol.
