POLL: Sinema's fate in 2024

[Alben Barkley]

If Mark Kelly loses next year, the appetite to primary Sinema will mostly be gone I think. Even if he wins but it's close, she will have a persuasive case for why the party needs to keep her to hold the seat. I also just don't know if the votes are there to primary her regardless; sure, lots of online progressives dislike her and loudly call for her to be primaried, but they don't exactly have the best track record of their preferred candidates actually winning outside of a few deep blue House districts. It's also possible that Sinema will pivot just enough to the left to satisfy most AZ Democrats and ward off any potential primary challenge, or that she and the party manage to persuade any serious challengers to stay back.

Still, I almost think she's in more danger of losing the primary than she is of losing the general. I think she very well could be the Democratic Susan Collins of the West. Even if the GOP wins the state in the presidential race, I could see her holding the seat by a relatively comfortable margin. And if the Democrats win the state, especially if it's a good year for Democrats in general, she could win by a blowout margin. She probably will have a lot of crossover appeal that will ensure she will run significantly ahead of the Democratic presidential ticket no matter what.

[Alben Barkley]

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that she’s in a better position for reelection than Mark Kelly and that she’ll outperform Biden/Harris by a few points. Lean D (the primary is obviously safe Sinema).

Why would a centrist senator who has nearly 40% approval among Republicans in her state but lukewarm ratings among her own party (that nearly censured her) be safer in the general than the primary? As I see it, if she clears the primary she’s almost guaranteed to win the general. If only because the AZ Republicans are a bunch of clowns.