MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[Alben Barkley]

Amazing how fast this race has gone from Lean R to Safe D.

[Alben Barkley]

Amazing how fast this race has gone from Lean R to Safe D.

It’s not safe D.

Exaggerationg, but sure favors her now.

[Alben Barkley]

FiveThirtyEight model expects Kelly to win the primary and gives Whitmer a 91% chance of beating him.

[Alben Barkley]

A D+17 sample showing Whitmer up 4 would have Dixon winning indies by like what, 20-30% or something? I have no idea what is wrong there but clearly something is off (unless their sample is somehow D+17 and they weighted it to a better electorate)

Trashfailgarbage is not really so much a pollster as they are an "unskewer." I am convinced their "methodology" is they just take polls and add like 10 points to the Republican and sometimes get lucky when the other polls really are that off, but are hilariously wrong in every other case.

[Alben Barkley]

This...is a pretty weird message to take.

https://www.twitter.com/TudorDixon/status/1568032955964047361

Reminds me of Scott Jensen's ad saying that you should ignore his views on abortion because he can't do anything about it anyway. Is this the new GOP strategy to sidestep the issue?

They seem to be waving the white flag on the abortion issue in certain states. But it's too little, too late. Tudor Dixon is on tape saying she wouldn't support exceptions even when presented with the hypothetical of a 14 year old girl raped by her uncle. Scott Jensen is on tape saying he wants to ban all abortions in Minnesota. No matter what weird pivots they make now to pretend that they'll respect the right to choose, they can't run and hide from their own records that easily.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1575142769043116033

Time to start pouring some of the resources from those states into AZ, NV, and WI instead?

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/craigdmauger/status/1576901181888090113?s=21&t=Hkz9TCSzU...

Oh.

My.

God.

Where to begin?

The motorcycle outfits?

"Gram died alone."

The acting?

The fact that the production value on this ad makes Saul Goodman ads look like Martin Scorsese movies?

"I'm voting for the other chick... What's her name???" Truly a ringing endorsement!

There is only ONE reaction to this ad:

Because I SERIOUSLY am starting to question whether Dixon might be a Democratic plant at this point! If so, she's doing the University of Kentucky (her alma mater) proud!

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/ronowens_/status/1580232810610429952?s=46&t=2ea6TtzQlGJN...

She joins Moore and Shapiro in having endorsements from law enforcement organizations. I want to say that maybe groups like these, that typically back Republicans (especially recently), draw the line at insurrection-adjacent or worse figures within the GOP like Dixon or Mastriano. And if that's the case I guess I'll give American law enforcement at least some credit for being somewhat consistent.

The Fraternal Order of Police in KY also endorsed Andy Beshear over Matt Bevin. (Well before the insurrection at that.) I honestly think these kinds of endorsements can be deal-breakers in tight races, and signs of an absolute landslide in races like this which weren't all that tight to begin with.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1588353941019889664

Ah, the old "If you stop for five seconds to do anything fun or light-hearted, it means you don't take the REAL ISSUES seriously!" either/or fallacy.

Not sure what that implies about all Trump's tweetstorms. Clearly he was wasting way too much time getting into petty fights on social media and not running the country or fighting COVID, to say nothing of his record-breaking golf habit.

And if you're trying to say this is "cringe," well, it's got nothing on "Gram died alone." To put it mildly.

[Alben Barkley]

One thing I think people forget is that MI is about 2 points bluer than either PA or WI yet people seem to often lump it in with the other 2. In close races that extra 2% is meaningful and is why I believe Whitmer is still favored. The state is also generally slightly more urban and less rural.

Actually PA is slightly more urban, but overall agreed.