Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Alben Barkley]

Tossup/Tilt D is the only correct answer.

And I still think Savannah Maddox is the most likely Republican nominee, though I am less certain about that.

[Alben Barkley]

Likely R because even with a heavily unpopular governor, Beshear only won by the skin of his teeth.

TBF Bevin did not really have any earth-shattering scandals, and was unpopular only because of his policies, and had the full and complete support of Fmr. President Trump.

The biggest thing they hated, by far, more than anything was his contempt for public school teachers and the unions.

Which gives Beshear a pretty easy point to bludgeon any Republican trying to succeed him with: "Do you or do you not believe that public school teachers deserve to be paid fairly and receive the pensions they earned?"

I can honestly say the fact that Kentucky responded so strongly in favor of the teachers brought tears to my eyes; my mother is a public school teacher after all, so I was incredibly moved to see how much of the state responded viscerally in favor of the teachers and against Bevin.

I'm not saying this alone means Beshear will win again by any means. In general I am far less certain about this race than I was about 2019, when I just KNEW in my gut Beshear would win. But I do think that if his campaign manages to tie the Republican nominee, whoever it is, more with Bevin than anybody else, AND specifically manages to tie them to Bevin's clashes with the teachers, that just might be enough for him to be re-elected.

[Alben Barkley]

Except for case, where Republicans nominate their own "Roy Moore", i am reasonably sure in their victory. Not overwhelming, but - solid... Beshear and JBE are "the last of mohicans" for Democrats, just as Hogan, Baker, and Scott - for Republicans. Soon - 95+% of partisan elections in US will be, essentially, useless - utterly predictable from very beginning.. May be - even 98+....

There’s not a single statewide elected Democrat or Democrat in Congress right now who’s genuinely moderate or who will ever actually stand up to their own party. Maybe that has something to do with this so-called 'polarization' that people somehow can’t seem to grasp.

What reason is there for a Republican-leaning voter to even support a Democrat nowadays? Even the ones who brand themselves as 'conservatives' are clearly always reliable votes for their party in the end &, in the case of the governors, prioritize Democratic legislation being implemented or veto power being exercised more than anything else. Elections might become more predictable (not that optimistic, but hope you’re right) because the politicians have become very predictable.

My friend, I know how much it frustrates you that you cannot simply plug "D=X, R=Y, therefore state that is R>D will be Y>X" into your TI-84 and come up with foolproof election results. But alas, that is not now, never has been, and never will be how the human mind works, when it comes to deciding how to vote or anything else. The very fact that Beshear won despite all your (very smug) predictions to the contrary should be proof enough of that. The people in this state and most others simply do not base their votes for the most part on cold mathematical calculations regarding which politician votes most in line with their preferred party most of the time. In fact, this state more than most all others has a long history of people electing politicians AGAINST what those simple calculations would predict, often purely on personal connections people feel to politicians.

In the end, I think Beshear's fate will ultimately rest on that far more than any kind of equation you could conjure up. The simple question will be whether they approve of him personally (and he is certainly a likable man) and his COVID response (a more divisive question in this state but which has for the most part been in his favor) over whoever his GOP challenger turns out to be. If it turns out to be a diehard Bevin disciple like Maddox as I still expect it to be, I think he's got a strong chance to say the least. The GOP would be foolish to write off this race as a guaranteed pick-up, that's for sure; if they really want to win it they need to find a candidate with broader appeal. Someone who ain't gonna lose most of the ancestral Dem counties in Eastern Kentucky and the Cincy suburbs. Because if you do that as a Republican, you are absolutely dead in this state.

[Alben Barkley]

I'm honestly surprised Cameron is running. He could have waited until the slam dunk McConnell seat opened in 2026. This is a huge risk (I think he has at least a 40% chance of losing, and that's assuming he even wins the primary; not odds I'd wanna take over a 100% shot at a likely lifetime Senate seat) and seems he already has cause to regret it. Blunder? He's going up against one of the most popular governors in the country, after all, in a state where said governor WAY overperforms relative to its partisan lean. And who knows what the environment will be like in an off-year like 2023? He better be prepared for a very close, very nasty race, and these opening shots are just the beginning of that. If I were him I sure as hell would not have risked it, because IF he loses, he's pretty much done.

And I still strongly doubt McConnell runs for re-election but I guess we've seen stranger things. The current generation of old fossils seems especially reluctant to just ride off into the sunset, even in their late 80s and beyond. See also: Feinstein, Grassley. (And earlier the likes of Byrd and Thurmond.) Though they weren't in the kind of leadership position McConnell is in. Would be something to see a 90 year old McConnell leading the Republican Party in Congress.

Although: If Cameron does win, that will mark the second time in a row a KY Attorney General beat the governor of the opposing party he famously sparred with throughout his term. Which would be kinda interesting. Sure as hell hope it doesn't happen though!

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.

McConnell is DOA in his primary in 2026. He's extremely unpopular even in his state, there's just never been a credible primary challenger to him, which there WILL be in 2026.

LOL

Tell me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics without telling me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics.

There has never been a "credible primary challenger" to McConnell for a reason. Any such person would be destroyed by the McConnell machine before they had a chance to get off the ground. His unpopularity in the state is totally irrelevant. Anyone who still believes otherwise after 2014 or so is not paying attention.

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure how credible this source is, but big news if it’s true. I think many thought Cameron would be McConnell’s successor, but perhaps a gubernatorial bid while an unpopular Democratic President is in office seemed too tempting to pass up (and besides, winning the Gubernatorial election doesn’t necessarily preclude Cameron from running to succeed McConnell in 2026, and it’s not even a given that McConnell is retiring; McConnell may still run for another term).

https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1524107405159591937?s=21&t=JozbWsp1Q...

My takeaway is that McConnell has decided to run for re-election in 2026.

McConnell is DOA in his primary in 2026. He's extremely unpopular even in his state, there's just never been a credible primary challenger to him, which there WILL be in 2026.

LOL

Tell me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics without telling me you know absolutely nothing about Kentucky politics.

There has never been a "credible primary challenger" to McConnell for a reason. Any such person would be destroyed by the McConnell machine before they had a chance to get off the ground. His unpopularity in the state is totally irrelevant. Anyone who still believes otherwise after 2014 or so is not paying attention.

I could easily see Matt Bevin attempting a primary challenge against McConnell again. I'm sure there's still bad blood there from Bevin's 2014 attempt.

He would be crushed.

Bevin is maybe the least popular politician in this state, of either party. I am literally including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in this calculation. Even if you included Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler in the mix, it might well be a close contest against Bevin!

There is a reason I joined this site in the first place way back in 2019, and it was explicitly to ridicule certain "STaTe PaRtiSAN LEaN iS ALl ThAt MaTTerRS!!!" posters who insisted Bevin was a lock over Beshear.

No one outside the state can fully appreciate how extremely loathed Bevin was and is here. The only reason he even came close in 2019 is because KY has become so red. He would have been crushed by double digits just a cycle before. Might well have lost every county in the state just TWO cycles before.

Fact of the matter is Matt Bevin is a carpetbagger (-1000), a smug elitist (-1000), a phony (-1000), an insufferable hypocrite (-1000), and NOW has the reputation of a guy who let hundreds of violent offenders go free on the way out the door, some of whom have offended again (-1000).

We are talking about a man who literally wore an entire suit with Donald Trump's face plastered all over it in public appearances and who appeared at a rally with Donald Trump in the largest basketball arena in the country the night before the election in which Trump said that if Bevin lost if would be the biggest humiliation of all-time. And he STILL lost!

In a state which twice voted double digits for Trump.

If Bevin was running against Beshear in a rematch, I would mark this race Safe D. I am not kidding. 100% Safe D. I don't care what the national environment is, how strongly R Kentucky's partisan lean now is, etc. Beshear has had four years in KY and what has he done? Been one of the few governors in the nation to consistently score an approval rating above 60%. Meanwhile Bevin was the least popular governor in the nation throughout almost his entire term.

If Bevin tries to primary McConnell he will be lucky to get 2% of the vote. No matter how much Kentuckians might say they hate McConnell, they begrudgingly respect him for the most part; NO ONE respects Bevin. At all. He is a laughing stock. He is literally the reason I am on this site though. I signed up solely to dunk on him and his Northern red avatar doomer fanboys who knew nothing about KY politics, so I guess I owe that to him? Sort of? Might have been better off never joining Atlas though so maybe even that is a curse I can blame on Bevin...

[Alben Barkley]

Beshear has a 60/34 approval rating, per Morning Consult (from Q4 2022)

So then he (probably) wins re-election, paving the way for a Senator Cameron by 2026

How about Senator Bevin?

Stop trying to make Bevin happen. He’s not going to happen.

[Alben Barkley]

Ya'll think this might be another Laura-Kelly esq situation where a lot (but not all) of his rural crossover support erodes but be squeezes a few extra points out of greater Louisville, greater Lexington, the Cinci Burbs, and Bowling Green?

Also, 4 years of population shifts is prolly a slight net to Beshear in KY, but hard to say.

Whether this results in a win or loss is hard to say, especially since KY is a lot more rural than KS.

In terms of the rural vote, remember that there are many voters in rural KY counties who are registered as Democrats out of tradition (since their ancestors were also registered as such) and/or convenience (since most local elected officials are Democrats) but who have voted Republican in recent years, especially for Federal offices at or near the top of the ticket. If you compare the 2019 results with those from 2020 and/or 2022, along with the turnout data from those years (which are broken down by county, party, age, gender, etc.), you will come to the conclusion that there must have been a very sizable share of voters in these rural areas who voted mostly D in 2019 (along with most earlier election years) but then proceeded to vote mostly R in 2020 and/or 2022. The 2023 election results in these counties will tell us whether or not these voters will revert to voting D when no federal races are on the ballot.

We can go even deeper than that. The 'No' vote on the abortion restriction referendum won through a surge of support in the KY-04 part of the state. These weren't all suburbs, many were small-towns inside the orbit of major metros that voted Beshear in 2019 but not by anywhere close to comparable margins. And while the No vote captured most of the Beshear vote in the central Bluegrass rurals, it did not in the southeastern coal country rurals. Which suggests further political divergences may come in November.

Credit for maps from MCI:

I wouldn't necessarily read too much into that. If Beshear wins again, he will almost certainly do so by both outperforming "No" in Eastern Kentucky coal country (even if he doesn't quite match his performance last time there) AND by running up the score in the Central Bluegrass region (I have strong ties to both those regions btw) as well as Northern Kentucky suburbs (even if he doesn't do quite as well as "No" there). Fact is a gubernatorial election is simply a very different ballgame from a referendum on an issue like abortion, brings out different coalitions who vote for different reasons. Basically the situation on the ground here is almost the complete reverse of what it was for Bevin: We have an overwhelmingly popular governor who is near the top of national rankings, but his party is not in sync with the state's partisan trends. This will almost certainly lead to a close race, but just like last time, I would bet on the governor's personal popularity being the deciding factor over partisanship. That means I would predict Beshear to win re-election. And if this was even 10 years ago, I'd predict him to do it by a landslide. As it is, I think a margin similar to the abortion referendum (even if the map isn't exactly the same) would be a pretty decisive win.

[Alben Barkley]

I'm moving my rating to Sae D based on this:

https://twitter.com/KYGOP/status/1622710107707408384?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Kentucky already rarely uses cash bail. It's one of the least using bail states along with Oregon.

And few cities if any in KY have even considered defunding the police but voters will sure hear about it come November. Even the most benign issues will get blown up to stir up any kind of fear and anger. I just want to see Beshear and Dems finally turn this around on Repubs. "Daniel Cameron wants to eliminate cash bail and release violent criminals on our streets!"

At this rate, Daniel Cameron might not make it to November. Don't be surprised if he loses the primary to Craft. Or actually this might turn out to be the perfect scenario: Trump endorses a weakened Cameron who barely wins the primary as a result, he in turn goes up against the very popular Andy Beshear and loses. I don't see Cameron sailing away with the nomination at this point, at any rate.

[Alben Barkley]

Kentucky already rarely uses cash bail. It's one of the least using bail states along with Oregon.

One of the things I'm most proud of my state for btw. Along with the fact that we haven't executed anyone in decades.

[Alben Barkley]

Daniel Cameron is being attacked now by the law and order right for an unearthed 2017 video of him supporting liberal-leaning bail reform, something that NJ, NY and IL has enacted.


https://twitter.com/gekaminsky/status/1653081510373736458

So much worse to think Cameron holds more liberal beliefs on criminal justice but is playing tough in office to get votes and hurting the black community. Especially considering his conduct during the Breonna Taylor case, was that all for show?

I think Craft is even odds to beat Cameron right now, there was a poll that had him only leading by 6 points a couple of weeks ago. Beshear would be the heavy favorite vs Craft. But it'd be interesting to see Beshear flip the script on Cameron and call him 'weak on crime' if he's the nominee.

Unfortunately I think Andy is too soft to really twist the knife on the crime issue the way he could... and would if I were advising him. After all, if he wasn't, if he was a real Bill Clinton type, he probably wouldn't have vetoed the transgender sports/youth transition bills where he was overridden anyway. That can only hurt him in the general election, and he did it anyway. I think he can still win but he's made things a little more difficult for himself.

[Alben Barkley]

Honestly I'm not even sure why Republicans are so invested in flipping KY. Beshear has little actual power as all his vetoes can easily be overridden. He's basically a popular figurehead for the state, like some kind of constitutional monarch or ceremonial head of state. Just leaving him be would be for the best for the state, as it gives us stability and someone Democrats can point to with pride while Republicans can still implement all their policies.

Probably the real reason is to set up Cameron to be McConnell's successor. But I was honestly surprised he ran, as I thought it was an unnecessary risk for him; Cocaine Mitch is probably retiring soon, and Cameron could have been next in line as AG without risking a humiliating defeat in this race. Maybe a secondary motivation is to eliminate Beshear as a threat for a future spot on a Democratic presidential ticket as a popular governor of a red state, and perhaps there's even an element of revenge motivating them. After all, Trump said he'd be the biggest loser ever if Bevin lost. Still, if I were them, I'd just have thrown up a sacrificial lamb candidate and not cared much if Beshear won. The GOP might be getting greedy here; if Cameron loses, which now looks likelier than not, he'll be tainted and less likely to win a primary to be McConnell's successor.

[Alben Barkley]

Hate to say this, but Beshear seems like a slight favorite now. This is despite Beshear being no different than a generic Democrat, who imposed extremely harsh COVID restrictions.

Ryan Brune's take seems to be Beshear winning by 2, like Kelly and Edwards. That seems about right.

Maybe voters may actually want to reward someone for trying to keep them safe!

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen on here.

Republicans literally won VA because of voter anger about school closures and the not-inaccurate belief that McAuliffe would continue to impose restrictions, seeing as he repeatedly lied about how many kids were hospitalized with COVID.

If Beshear wins, it will be in spite of the restrictions, not because of them.

That was part of it sure, but it was also that McAuliffe fell asleep at the wheel. Despite being in a fairly safe blue state, he barely outraised Youngkin. This was also around the height of the conservative panic and fearmongering that democrats would do all sorts of stupid untrue nonsense to kids in school.

This sight dramatically overestimated the impact of school closures. It’s not like it’s just single issue parents vote.

Thanks for reminding me that Kentucky will vote to the left of 2021 Virginia this year.

[Alben Barkley]

This is really the best the GOP has? Beshear comes off totally normal in his ads while Cameron's ads are all more stuff like this. I get this is KY after all, but no wonder Cameron is sort of flatlining

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1692169704616378734

Cameron knows what the GOP base wants, and in Kentucky, that's all you really need.

Of course YOU think that.

Meanwhile, here actually on the ground in a state you've never stepped foot in, I for one think Beshear hurt himself by vetoing that bill, and said so at the time (and now considering it is literally THE subject of the attack ads, when otherwise they would have had virtually NOTHING, I feel vindicated in saying so), but that he is still very much in the race and probably favored.

In this article for example is an excellent new ad I literally just saw on my own local TV, with the old sheriff of Floyd County full-throatedly endorsing Beshear as the best governor in his lifetime:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/candidates-release-dueling-tv-ads-kentucky-governors-race-rcna100188

That kind of stuff speaks to folks here. Although, yes, it does hurt that Beshear lost his FOP endorsement this time. But unsurprising given the Breonna Taylor drama.

[Alben Barkley]

The ads here are something else.

Daniel Cameron: "Beshear hates cops!"

Andy Beshear: "No, here's 6 cops backing me!"

Cameron: "Beshear supports youth transition!"

Beshear: "Nuh uh!"

Cameron: "Beshear released convicts!"

Beshear: "So did Bevin, and you supported him! Also supported him when he tried to strip healthcare away and f--k over teachers!"

It literally is like watching a duel on live TV over and over and over and over again... More than any other election in my memory, which is really saying something. It's obvious both parties see this race as extremely competitive and are investing a lot into it. Probably more for the symbolic value than anything else: If the Republicans win, they can maybe get some momentum going into 2024 and crack down on the narrative that they're out of touch post-Dobbs. If the Democrats win, they can maybe point to it as yet another post-Dobbs victory in a red state and highlight the popularity of a promising young star in their party.

Because at the end of the day, with the GOP's veto-proof majority here, it doesn't matter THAT MUCH on the legislative level who wins, really. But you could never guess it based on how fiercely this race is being fought!

[Alben Barkley]

The ads here are something else.

Daniel Cameron: "Beshear hates cops!"

Andy Beshear: "No, here's 6 cops backing me!"

Cameron: "Beshear supports youth transition!"

Beshear: "Nuh uh!"

Cameron: "Beshear released convicts!"

Beshear: "So did Bevin, and you supported him! Also supported him when he tried to strip healthcare away and f--k over teachers!"

It literally is like watching a duel on live TV over and over and over and over again... More than any other election in my memory, which is really saying something. It's obvious both parties see this race as extremely competitive and are investing a lot into it. Probably more for the symbolic value than anything else: If the Republicans win, they can maybe get some momentum going into 2024 and crack down on the narrative that they're out of touch post-Dobbs. If the Democrats win, they can maybe point to it as yet another post-Dobbs victory in a red state and highlight the popularity of a promising young star in their party.

Because at the end of the day, with the GOP's veto-proof majority here, it doesn't matter THAT MUCH on the legislative level who wins, really. But you could never guess it based on how fiercely this race is being fought!

Long term, is there anyway for Dems to break the GOP supermajority in the KY State Leg? At this point they've basically lost all the remaining conservadem rural seats. It seems like Dems are pretty close to rock bottom in the state leg at this point. There are def tenalzying possibilities long term in greater Lexington and Louisville, and even Bowling Green and outside Cinci. However, it still seems like it'd be pretty hard for them to break the supermajority.

If Republican's Lexington State Senate crack eventually backfires that might be Dems best bet, but that still seems pretty unlikely. Lexington's leftward shift is really underrated imo; not only did Fayette County swing 11 points left in 2020, but the counties around it all swung left by varying degrees.

Obv Lexington alone isn't going to be enough to make KY anywhere near competitive federally, but def could throw Ds KY-06 at some point. Honestly a bit suprised Rs didn't go for the crack.

To me that is just a matter of time. Lexington is going to LURCH left in 2024. Mark my words. Not just at the presidential and other high levels (we WILL here in Fayette crack 60% D for the first time since... ever), but also at the lower levels AND also the surrounding areas will swing hard left. There is a good chance Woodford County (the least Republican county in the surrounding Bluegrass area besides Franklin) flips outright, and Franklin flipping is a foregone conclusion. Certainly KY-06 has potential to be competitive with the right candidates and under the right circumstances; it VERY NEARLY flipped as it was in 2018, with a mediocre candidate in Amy McGrath (her primary opponent, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, outright won the district in his senate campaign in 2016 even as Trump dominated).

[Alben Barkley]

The ads here are something else.

Daniel Cameron: "Beshear hates cops!"

Andy Beshear: "No, here's 6 cops backing me!"

Cameron: "Beshear supports youth transition!"

Beshear: "Nuh uh!"

Cameron: "Beshear released convicts!"

Beshear: "So did Bevin, and you supported him! Also supported him when he tried to strip healthcare away and f--k over teachers!"

It literally is like watching a duel on live TV over and over and over and over again... More than any other election in my memory, which is really saying something. It's obvious both parties see this race as extremely competitive and are investing a lot into it. Probably more for the symbolic value than anything else: If the Republicans win, they can maybe get some momentum going into 2024 and crack down on the narrative that they're out of touch post-Dobbs. If the Democrats win, they can maybe point to it as yet another post-Dobbs victory in a red state and highlight the popularity of a promising young star in their party.

Because at the end of the day, with the GOP's veto-proof majority here, it doesn't matter THAT MUCH on the legislative level who wins, really. But you could never guess it based on how fiercely this race is being fought!

Long term, is there anyway for Dems to break the GOP supermajority in the KY State Leg? At this point they've basically lost all the remaining conservadem rural seats. It seems like Dems are pretty close to rock bottom in the state leg at this point. There are def tenalzying possibilities long term in greater Lexington and Louisville, and even Bowling Green and outside Cinci. However, it still seems like it'd be pretty hard for them to break the supermajority.

If Republican's Lexington State Senate crack eventually backfires that might be Dems best bet, but that still seems pretty unlikely. Lexington's leftward shift is really underrated imo; not only did Fayette County swing 11 points left in 2020, but the counties around it all swung left by varying degrees.

Obv Lexington alone isn't going to be enough to make KY anywhere near competitive federally, but def could throw Ds KY-06 at some point. Honestly a bit suprised Rs didn't go for the crack.

To me that is just a matter of time. Lexington is going to LURCH left in 2024. Mark my words. Not just at the presidential and other high levels (we WILL here in Fayette crack 60% D for the first time since... ever), but also at the lower levels AND also the surrounding areas will swing hard left. There is a good chance Woodford County (the least Republican county in the surrounding Bluegrass area besides Franklin) flips outright, and Franklin flipping is a foregone conclusion. Certainly KY-06 has potential to be competitive with the right candidates and under the right circumstances; it VERY NEARLY flipped as it was in 2018, with a mediocre candidate in Amy McGrath (her primary opponent, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, outright won the district in his senate campaign in 2016 even as Trump dominated).

As someone more familiar with KY, what's the sense you get of Lexington as a community? What types of people tend to be moving there? What types of industry are there?

One thing I find interesting about Lexington is it seems there's quite a sharp dropoff between the suburbs and rural areas.

There is indeed such a dropoff, but not only did such a thing not used to exist, it used to be the REVERSE. The suburban precinct I grew up in used to be among the most Republican parts of town and now is the opposite, while some of the rural parts of KY-06 used to be some of the strongest Democratic parts of the district and now are the opposite.

Honestly this isn't a unique trend at all to Lexington, as we see voting habits shift based on education above all else.

Ultimately, I still see KY-06 as an area with untapped potential for Democrats. The voters here are nothing like deep Southerners. They are not so firmly entrenched in their ways that they would never even consider voting for a Democrat, and this includes even many in the rural R-trending areas. If anything the district is more like Wisconsin than Alabama. Yeah, on paper the R trends look bad for Dems in the rurals, but the suburbs still have room for growth and even the urban areas aren't maxed out yet. And the rurals/exurbs themselves could even whiplash as the Lexington metro expands outwards.

This is why I don't think KY-06 is a lost cause. Far from it. It's why I considered running in the district myself, despite knowing how much of a longshot and uphill battle it was. I knew the right candidate with the right message at the right time could win it and cause huge swings to occur in all the right places. Trump himself, ironically, was my role model in considering my campaign: He caused states that didn't even LOOK competitive under Obama to lurch far right because he was a perfect fit for the perfect moment in the perfect place. It's hard to be that Goldilocks candidate. REALLY hard. But IF you pull it off, the rewards are GREAT.

[Alben Barkley]

It is true that popular governors rarely lose, but it’s not impossible that this might be a KS-2022 situation where the state swings 3% or so to the right due to a far less damaged/comically inept Republican opponent. In KS, that wasn’t enough for a GOP win; in KY, it would be.

JBE also did far worse in his reelection bid despite his popularity, going from winning by double digits to winning by 3% — and that was against a similarly "partisan" opponent. Needless to say, such a shift (not that I expect one of this magnitude) would sink Beshear.

So yes, while incumbent governors rarely lose, incumbent Democratic governors in red states have had some very close calls recently — all of them (Bullock, Kelly, JBE) lucked out, but that doesn’t guarantee Beshear will.

"There you go again!"

Honestly, anyone with your track record predicting THIS particular race who also was capable of even a modicum of shame would just stay out of it.

That being said, and this may shock you, but you aren't totally wrong. It's possible that even a slight Republican swing in the state would flip it. On the other hand, we're talking about a state that just rejected an attempt to outright ban abortion -- albeit by a much closer margin than Kansas did, granted -- and thus may be affected by the post-Dobbs backlash to the GOP. Furthermore, Beshear is now the incumbent governor and routinely scores very high in approval ratings. This is why he's not DOA by any means. If the state was NOT "better off than it was four years ago," I would say he IS DOA as a matter of fact. But by most measures (including the most important one of how people FEEL about the state of things), it IS better off! People generally like Andy around here, and most folks around here don't want to mess with the status quo for no reason. Kentucky truly is a "conservative" state in that regard, which ironically might help the Democrat in this case.

Also there is the frankly unavoidable fact that Daniel Cameron is a black man. Sure, he could win an AG race and a Republican primary under far less high profile circumstances. But is Kentucky really ready to elect a black man to lead our entire state? I don't know about that. I think it's underrated how that could affect turnout in certain parts of the state, to be frank, and in a close election that could make all the difference.

Basically this race is the opposite of 2019 in that we have a POPULAR governor of the UNPOPULAR party in the state! The two factors will, again, likely more or less cancel out and lead to a very close race. I think turnout and swings will actually favor Beshear however; I think he will dominate even more in Lexington and the Bluegrass region and hold up well in Northern KY and Louisville, more than making up for any ground he loses in Eastern KY coal country. But unlike last time, when my gut was just absolutely certain he would win and Bevin would lose, I wouldn't be too surprised to see Cameron winning. There's still a lot of uncertainty here and a lot is going to depend on how things unfold over the next couple months.

[Alben Barkley]

Also, fun fact, I was just recently speaking to my grandmother in her nineties about the race, and her only comment was "We need the blacks to turn out in Louisville and Lexington." I laughed and laughed because, my god, she was right! I guess I was under the impression that she still thought Kentucky was the way it was in the 40s and white coal miners were the ones electing Democrats. But no, she is all too aware of the voting coalitions of today and remains a Democrat regardless!

[Alben Barkley]

I did a fun little "Yik Yak" poll of my college, I asked people who they would vote for in 2023, for context, this is a moderate, left-of-center college in a deep red, suburban county of Lexington. People had 4 options; Andy, Cameron, not voting, and I don't know..
Out of 426 voters in this poll, Beshear won like 60%, Cameron came in 4th place with 9%, lolo. Not really telling of much but still funny.

Wait I'm trying to figure out what "deep red, suburban county of Lexington" there even is that also has a college? Closest thing I can think of is EKU? (Beshear won Madison County last time btw.) Only alternative is Centre in Danville/Boyle County (Boyle voted slightly for Bevin last time, but I expect it to flip to Beshear based on the 2020 -- when it voted left of the state -- and 2022 -- when it voted against the abortion ban -- results there). But calling either Richmond or Danville a "suburb" of Lexington is a stretch; the Lexington metro proper is Clark, Jessamine, Bourbon, Woodford, and Scott, in addition to of course Fayette.

Also I too am amazed YikYak is still a thing. I was out of school by the time it became big but my brother wasn't. I heard they basically destroyed themselves by ruining the anonymity; is it now fully anonymous again?

[Alben Barkley]

Anecdotally: I have been driving around the state recently and seen probably hundreds of Beshear signs. In cities, suburbs, rural areas, small towns alike. Not a single Cameron sign. Some of these Beshear signs are even next to Trump signs.

Now you might say that yard signs don't mean much, that liberals/Democrats are more likely to be politically engaged anyway, etc. (Although that doesn't explain the ones next to Trump signs.) But all I can say is that, driving through Ohio and Michigan in October 2016, that's when I started to get really worried that Trump could win because I saw Trump sign after Trump sign and no Hillary signs. Seems the enthusiasm is on Beshear's side, and even Cameron's Republican voters by and large aren't thrilled with him. Not saying they won't come out to vote for him, but I am increasingly doubting it will be enough. At this point I now expect Beshear to win by a significantly bigger margin than last time, if not by the landslide margin some polls are showing.

[Alben Barkley]

I've noticed the sign wars are kind of a reverse of what they used to be. It used to be you'd see Republican signs in rich areas and Democratic signs in working-class areas. Now it's the opposite.

All I can say is that even taking backwoods rural roads in counties like Jessamine, Garrard, Boyle, Lincoln, Pulaski, I have seen Beshear signs and no Cameron signs. Again, sometimes even next to Trump signs. They're even more prominent in small towns like Danville. (Boyle I think is a guaranteed flip; it BARELY voted Bevin last time, but went on to vote left of the state in 2020 and against the abortion ban in 2022.)

I don't want to sound delusional because this is Kentucky after all, but a mid-sized Beshear win doesn't sound as unthinkable anymore as it once was. Like 10% may be too much, but like Beshear 5-10% seems more likely now than it did before.

It's not really unthinkable. His dad managed to win by over 20 points at the peak of the Tea Party movement and a year before Obama was destroyed in the state, after all. You might say, oh well that was a different time when races for state office were treated very differently, but honestly? This race isn't as nationalized as you might expect. Most of the ads are culture wars over whether Beshear supports sex changes for children or not, and who the cops like more. That kind of strategy didn't work as well for the GOP as some, even myself, expected in 2022 in most states. And Cameron seems to have no answer for Beshear's excellent economic record, no real argument he can articulate as to why Kentucky should change horses in midstream or why he's even running. And again, the guy is absolutely devoid of charisma. He has no answer to the polls showing Beshear destroying him in likability either.

Put it all together and you might have a perfect storm where Beshear at the least pulls off a JBE 2019 sized victory. Which doesn't seem that impressive, to win by 3 points, but as you said, it IS Kentucky, and it IS the Trump era.

[Alben Barkley]

The Republicans are getting desperate: I just saw an absolute blitzkrieg of an ad which attempted to tie Beshear to Biden and the "border crisis" and Cameron to Trump and cops all at the same time. It all happened so fast it probably just confused voters even more.

You can actually smell the desperation. It's not going to work...

[Alben Barkley]

Are people (by which I mean SnowLabrador and company) seriously dooming about Kentucky over a poll from Louisiana??? A Deep South state where there is no Democratic incumbent running and the dynamics of the race and voting coalitions are entirely different? A state which was never expected to be competitive, unlike Kentucky? Even though there IS actual polling in Kentucky, and literally not a single poll so far has shown Beshear behind, the last showing him up by 16???

This is almost like freaking out that Trump is going to win California because a poll shows him up big in Arkansas. It's just comical at best, absolutely pathetic at worst.

Seriously people: Calm down, take a deep breath, and touch some f--king grass!

On another note: I just saw a great Beshear ad with a Trump voter who talked about how he's voting for Beshear because he puts "Kentucky first" like Trump put America first. Not my favorite rhetoric but you know what? It's great for this state! And it's great that Beshear and his campaign aren't afraid to shy away from almost embracing Trump in such a heavily MAGA state.

Meanwhile all Cameron can do is yell "TRANS TRANS TRANS!!!!"