2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Alben Barkley]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

[Alben Barkley]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

If the theory that a big part of the reason for Biden’s low approval is dissatisfied progressives holds water, then I’d guess the former. Which could mean one of the most underwhelming midterm performances by the opposition in years.

It doesn't hold water. It's pure hackery by people who refuse to accept that polling continues to overestimate democrats egregiously.

Except it didn't in 2018 or even 2014 or really any election without Trump. Sometimes even underestimated Democrats. And the crosstabs support it (terrible Biden approvals among young Democratic voters for instance). Like, some of the very same polls finding Biden deep underwater are also finding Democratic candidates comfortably ahead. Literally the exact same polls, same sample of people saying they disapprove of Biden yet will vote for Democrats. How else do you explain that? It's not "hackery" to logically analyze the numbers instead of just knee jerk dooming.

[Alben Barkley]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

“Doomers” were ones to call BS on Dems winning FLA and NC. “Doomers” thought Biden winning Texas was laughable. “Doomers” laughed their ass off at polls saying Biden +17 in Wisconsin.

Other than my stubborn stance on Georgia…. “Doomers” on here are right.

GOP +2 is a GOP House of 240 seats and a likely takeover of the Senate.

TIED is a GOP House if 230 seats and a Tilt GOP takeover of Senate
Dem +2 is a GOP House of 220-225 seats and a Dem 50/50 Senate or Tilt D 51/49
Dem +3.5 is a tossup House with approx 220-216 seats and Dems gain in Senate
Dem +4 is a Dem house of 225 seats and a Dem 52-48 Senate.

Doomers thought Trump would win outright, and were dead wrong on that. Kind of the big one. Certainly didn’t think Biden would win Arizona and Georgia. Or that Dems would take back the Senate. And don’t even get me started on how dead wrong doomers were in 2018/2019, which may be more comparable to this year.

If you are always negative OR always positive, naturally you’ll be right sometimes, but cherrypicking the few times doomers were somewhat right does not somehow prove you’re always right.

[Alben Barkley]

If this midterm goes as badly as it looks like it will, here's one question I have: Why would any party want to win the presidency? If even women losing their bodily autonomy doesn't change a single vote in a midterm, nothing can. Moreover, to those who say it's happening due to Biden's unpopularity: I honestly don't think any President will ever be popular again at this point in their term.

There is no way in hell you're not a textbook concern troll.

[Alben Barkley]

Seltzer’s GB numbers look good, Democrats would absolutely take that. Would suggest a D+0 year nationally (maybe R+1 if you assume Midwest will trend left this year because of Dobbs/Dem weakness with non whites).

So basically, a neutral year, which still probably favors Rs due to their advantages in the Senate (all of NV, GA, PA, and AZ are to the right of the nation). But we could still squeak it out or at least limit their gains. The House of course is long gone.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1588916015869878272?t=J9Wz9Bfa732UFxcf6...

This critique makes so sense to me. It’s like if you were to complain that the right wing media is symatically dishonest, and I were to reply “Well, the left wing media could always just lie more to make up for it”.

Rather than making stuff up, I think he's saying if the Dems had good internals, they could release them, but the fact that they aren't suggests that they don't have them.