Do you consider Minnesota a swing state?

[Alben Barkley]

Well we saw that Minnesota voted about as much or more for Biden as Iowa did for Trump. So since people are asking the question now about Iowa, why not Minnesota too?

I honestly think this state has to be one of the biggest flops for the GOP. A LOT of Republicans (and Horus) seemed very confident they could flip this. Instead it just swung 5+ points left. And probably trended at least a couple points left too once the final NPV is in.

Lots of high hopes for the GOP in this state for years actually, but especially now, and they just didn't pan out. This is a state that voted RIGHT of Michigan in 2012, actually, and not much farther left than Iowa that year. Now it's like 15 points left of Iowa, and 6-7 points left of Wisconsin.

WHY did the GOP seem so utterly incapable of gaining any ground in Minnesota? I remember when the George Floyd riots were supposed to endanger Dems here. I remember when Lake County and other Iron Range counties were supposed to flip. I remember when Trafalgar had Trump winning or close to it here. I remember when people called this a sleeper state that could potentially vote right of Michigan or even Wisconsin again. I remember when Tina Smith was supposed to be in danger.
 
NONE of that panned out. Turned out to be at least as disappointing a flop for Republicans as Texas was for Democrats.

The question is... WHY? Demographically, the state is practically identical to Wisconsin and Michigan aside from being slightly more educated. Is that really the WHOLE difference? I suppose the Twin Cities make it a bit more urban as well. But generally speaking, we're not talking about DRASTIC differences here. And historically, it's rarely voted vastly farther to the left than these states (except maybe special circumstances like Ford getting a favorite son boost in MI while Mondale got one in MN in 1976). In 2016, it was just a 2 point difference, giving the GOP hope.

So what's going on?

[Alben Barkley]

The question is... WHY? Demographically, the state is practically identical to Wisconsin and Michigan aside from being slightly more educated. Is that really the WHOLE difference? I suppose the Twin Cities make it a bit more urban as well. But generally speaking, we're not talking about DRASTIC differences here. And historically, it's rarely voted vastly farther to the left than these states (except maybe special circumstances like Ford getting a favorite son boost in MI while Mondale got one in MN in 1976). In 2016, it was just a 2 point difference, giving the GOP hope.

So what's going on?

Twin Cities: 61% of Minnesota population.
Metro Milwaukee: 27% of Wisconsin population.
Metro Madison: 11% of Wisconsin population.

OK maybe that partially explains Wisconsin, but isn't significantly more of the Michigan population (also very similar demographically in most respects) in a metro area?

Also it seems even the rural areas of Minnesota stay stubbornly to the left of those of Wisconsin; again, see the Iron Range.

[Alben Barkley]

Well anyway, if MN is not a swing state and won't be in the near-future, when WILL it flip if ever? We're talking about the state with the single longest Democratic streak of any, soon to be 50 years since 1972. Pretty astounding it's lasted this long through all that. Is there even a faint chance one of those GOP states that's held out since 1964 -- AK, KS, UT, etc. -- flips first even???