I told you people Texas was gonna be close.
I never disagreed, but that doesn’t mean the rust belt states are gonna be particularly close either. The camp you seem to be part of that thinks “trends” are everything, that Biden will win by more in Arizona than Michigan or something as a result, is wrong. But so is the camp that thinks states like Texas and Georgia “just aren’t there yet” and Biden’s only path is a 2012-esque rust belt map.
In reality, what will happen is Biden will at least partially revert to 2012 numbers in the rust belt AND continue to make gains in the sun belt which is trending rapidly left. Why? Because non-college whites are shifting away from Trump (if not completely back to 2012 numbers) AND college whites are shifting even more away from him. This has been observed in national, state, and district polls. And it’s pretty much what happened in 2018, so this would just be a natural extension of that.
