2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Alben Barkley]

So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318580883167825925

Whatever is happening in Texas is completely wild and certainly a change from the status quo, and a change in the status quo in Texas is not good news for Republicans in this environment.

Imagine Texas gets called for Dems on Election Night.

It would all be over right then and there.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1318639589511335937?s=20

Reminder that it's probably only going to be the Midwest that won't potentially be callable for days. Certainly lower level elections might go slower, but the Safe states will still be called at the buzzer and FL, NC, CO, and TX count fast enough to give us enough election night info.

This is why if Biden wins FL and especially TX, it will be over. The best way to avoid any protracted electoral dispute would be Texas going D. It’s a tall order, but we’re counting on you to save democracy, Texans.

[Alben Barkley]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

The latest Florida poll has the remaining vote (ie haven’t vote early yet but will along with ED voters) going 60/40 Trump which isn’t a big enough split to make up 426k

And I like how everyone’s just completely ignoring the fact that Biden is likely winning independents (is according to the polls), meaning the actual difference is significantly higher.

[Alben Barkley]

The PA #s continue to be absolutely insane.

Dems 1,023,402 (70.6%)
Reps 293,318 (20.2%)
Other 132,680 (9.2%)
= 1,449,400

Dem lead now +730K (was +684K yesterday)

https://twitter.com/aabramson/status/1319650608916344832

But I was told (by someone who very obviously does not know how Florida votes or how to analyze early voting numbers) that Biden was doomed because of the early vote numbers in Florida.

[Alben Barkley]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

LOL

Lurker, get back in here so we can all make fun of you!

[Alben Barkley]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

What does this mean

I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.

To simplify it further, when you break all this down it adds up to being on track for about a Biden +5 victory, which fits with the polls and by the way would be the biggest win in Florida since Bush 2004.

[Alben Barkley]

The annoying part about the Doomers is the “heads I win tails you lose” mentality of freaking out overs reps doing better in EV then polling indicated but then not giving a thought to the idea that Dems might turnout on ED better then polling indicates

They have set up a situation where (in their minds) they can’t lose. If Biden wins, they can be like “Gee, so glad I was wrong!” If Trump wins, they get to gloat about being right while everyone else was wrong.

It’s very annoying, and I for one am not gonna let them get away with it when Biden wins. Never let them forget their bedwetting!

[Alben Barkley]

Pennsylvania Supreme Court rules that ballots cannot be rejected due to signature issues. The can’t find anything in the law passed by the legislature that requires it. Big ruling, could help counter some of the naked ballot issues and speed up the counting process.

https://twitter.com/elaijuh/status/1319696427849842688?s=21

EXCELLENT!

This is some of the best news of the day.

[Alben Barkley]

Not that it matters, but when you get a Florida drivers license, they also ask you if you want to register to vote. When me and my family went through the process, I got asked to specify a party. My sister and father did not, so they got registered as NPA. Both are democrats. I think getting registered at the DMV as a NPA voter is pretty common.

This actually does matter as it could help explain why there are so many registered independents/NPA and why they seem to be breaking so heavily Democratic.

[Alben Barkley]

They ain't kidding when they say everything is bigger in Texas.