Whitman Insights: Biden +10

[Alben Barkley]

With that margin (which is consistent with other national and swing state polls), Trump loses all the states he lost in 2016 in addition to NE-02/WI/MI/PA/AZ/FL/NC/GA/OH. TX and IA are close, but I think Biden barely flips TX (closest state in the country) and Trump narrowly holds IA and ME-02. In other words, a 406-132 Biden win.

So what your saying is, the election isn’t a tossup and maybe just maybe Trump is the underdog?

No, I’ve learned my lesson from 2016, which is why I know better than to jump to such unwarranted and premature conclusions.

How is it an unwarranted and premature conclusion to state the objective fact that Trump is the underdog? Saying that he will definitely lose five months out would be an unwarranted and premature conclusion. But saying he is the underdog at this moment is simply the truth. Almost every relevant factor/data point is against him right now.

[Alben Barkley]

This is a pretty compelling poll if Biden can maintain the lead--this is well outside of what Trump can win the EC with.

Well that’s the understatement of the century. As mentioned above, there is a good chance Biden would win a 400+ EV landslide, the biggest since HW 1988, with a lead like this.