Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D

[Alben Barkley]

Endorsing McGrath early instead of courting Rocky Adkins or Steve Beshear was a bad idea. (I suspect they couldn't have convinced Matt Jones to jump in, and don't blame them for not waiting after their failed attempt to launch his candidacy in 2018).

I don’t think Adkins or Beshear were ever going to run. Especially not Beshear, who seems to want to stay retired and already lost against McConnell once anyway. And from what I’ve heard (I’m acquainted with a couple people in Kentucky politics), Adkins didn’t run more for personal reasons than because the DSCC favored McGrath. He seems to likes his job working in the governor’s office anyway. Jones kept waffling on whether he was going to run or not for some time; in the end he seemed most interested in publicizing his anti-Mitch book.

I do think all would have been stronger candidates than McGrath, but I also don’t think any would actually be favored. Adkins would come closest; I could see him being kind of like a Manchin for Kentucky. Can’t really blame him for not wanting to go against McConnell though.

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

I haven’t seen Hicks run much of a race so far. I don’t know why people seem to think this district is no longer competitive after 2018. McGrath could have won then if she ran a better campaign (her “no negative ads” strategy really backfired). She might have even been able to win a rematch this year. Better chance than her Senate run anyway.

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure why people are writing off KY so hard. I'm not saying McGrath is gonna win, but she raised a crap ton of money and Beshear proved you CAN win in KY, even under specific circumstances. That, with Trump's sagging approval, Biden on the ticket, and McConnell's low approval - this should easily be McConnell's closest race ever.

He only won by 15% in 2014's wave year. Yes, this is a presidential year, but still.

McConnell only won his first race by 0.4% (it haunts me how close we were to dodging the bullet; probably he only won because it was 1984 and Reagan’s coattails swept him into office) so I highly doubt it could possibly be his closest race ever. Doubt it would even be closer than 1990 when he won by 4 or 2008 when he won by 6.

As for why people are writing it off, well, there’s a familiar pattern with McConnell races. Early polls show it close and McConnell as highly unpopular, so he appears vulnerable on the surface. Then he goes scorched earth in the campaign and by the time election day comes around he easily wins. That’s what happened in 2014. It was supposed to be closer than 15 points according to the polls; some even thought Grimes could actually win and some forecasters had it as a toss-up. Turned out to actually be McConnell’s second-biggest win. He also easily beat Steve Beshear by double digits in 1996, even as Clinton won the state and even though Beshear would later become a popular governor who won two landslides. The guy is just a cockroach who you can’t get rid of. Democrats keep lining up to kick the football like Charlie Brown, but of course Lucy always pulls it away. I wouldn’t be surprised if this race is closer than 2014 even with Trump on the ballot (Rand Paul’s race was closer in 2016), but he’s not gonna lose.

Andy Beshear’s win doesn’t say anything about McConnell’s chances by the way; Kentucky is a state where gubernatorial races have been the exception, not the rule, in that Democrats are much more competitive than they are in federal races. Indeed both Republican governors elected this century have been one-termers, along with every Republican governor in state history. And again, Beshear’s dad won by much more. Didn’t stop McConnell from both beating him directly and winning twice while he was governor.