NE-02 D Internal- Biden +11, Eastman +1 (user search)
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  NE-02 D Internal- Biden +11, Eastman +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NE-02 D Internal- Biden +11, Eastman +1  (Read 2016 times)
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
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Posts: 19,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« on: May 13, 2020, 01:04:52 AM »

If Biden wins NE-02 and ME-02 then he only needs to win Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to reach 270 electoral votes.

It will be tough for Biden to make up a 10 point deficit in ME-02.  I can't begin to think how the country will react with a likely/significant Biden PV lead and a 269-269 EV tie.

Trump already swung it from +10 D to +10 R between 2012 and 2016. It could flip again, especially considering that ranked choice is now a factor that already gave the Democrats the seat in 2018. If Trump is really as unpopular in Maine as polling suggests, it could happen. Although granted if it does, Biden has probably already won the election and the NPV by a decent margin. It's unlikely that ME-02 flips before Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. But I could maybe see it flipping before Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, or Texas. Although the former two at least would probably be very close, because if Biden is winning ME-02, that's probably a sign that Trump's gains in WWC support from 2012 to 2016 have effectively reversed. Which would mean an electoral collapse for him.

The scenario in which the ME-02 delegate is the deciding factor is very unlikely, to say the least. But still the existence of these competitive districts in NE and ME gives me anxiety because they do increase the likelihood of a 269-269 tie, or even Trump winning with exactly 270 votes. These would be nightmare scenarios.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2020, 03:21:28 PM »

Good. In a close election, winning this 1 vote could be the difference between winning & losing.

I think if Biden takes NE-2, he has already won the election.

Not necessarily. Suburban areas are turning on Trump in a big way. And NE-02 was already closer than any state Trump won except MI, PA, WI, and FL. It's theoretically possible that the continued suburban trends against Trump are enough to deliver Biden this district but not the rust belt, or at least not all of it. Unlikely, but possible.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,288
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2020, 03:22:26 PM »

The DCCC's hatred for Eastman is hilarious. With this poll they're basically saying "if she wins, it's because of Biden."

Um... are you implying the DCCC outright made up the results of this poll to make Eastman look bad and/or Biden look good?

K.

You ever consider that maybe, just maybe, Biden actually is doing better in this district than Eastman as the poll shows? Would that REALLY be so hard to believe when Eastman already blew this election in a blue wave year in 2018, losing along with every single other Justice Democrat nominee?
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