CA, OH, TX (Emerson) - Biden +30, Trump +3, Trump +6

[Alben Barkley]

The numbers in the Ohio crosstabs are terrible for Biden.  Trump actually looks like he has enough enthusiastic support to retain or exceed his 2016 vote tally. 

36.7% of Respondents are Republican with 43.8% of respondents having voted for Donald Trump in 2016 (51.7% voted for Trump in 2016), and 34.5% saying they voted for Hillary.  While Trump won total voters 51.4 to 48.6 (2.8%), he led among the more decisive voters 46.1 to 42.5% (3.6%), which included a 1% win for him among women. 60% of Biden voters are either unexcited (35%) or mildly excited to support him, while 70% of Trump voters are excited to support Trump.  94% of the people that voted for Trump in 2016 said they will definitely vote for him in 2020, and 2% say they will vote for Biden.  However, 9% of Hillary Clinton voters say they will support Trump in 2020. 

Does anyone see the problem?   It wasn’t until Election Day that Emerson finally showed Trump winning by 7 points, and the crosstabs of those polls demonstrated two culprits: Enthusiasm and Favorability. 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html#polls

Clearly enthusiasm for Biden is about as bad as it can get.  The gap is 20% wider than it was between Clinton and Trump, but Democrats assume the enthusiasm to beat Trump will make up the difference.  It won’t in Ohio where Trump has a 48-49% approval rating, and has a favorability rating around 48%.  Biden usually has a favorability rating of 41% to 43% in Ohio that is either even or underwater to his unfavorable numbers.  Recently Biden’s numbers nationally have tanked to -6, which is near the -6.1 national approval spread for Trump.   
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls

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