KY-Lake Research: Andy Beshear (D) +15 vs. Gov. Matt Bevin (R)

[Alben Barkley]

All you smug circlejerkers who have never set foot in Kentucky in your lives are making complete fools of yourselves. Bevin is absurdly unpopular here in Kentucky. Far more so than the last GOP governor, Ernie Fletcher, ever was, and he was easily beaten. The people who are actually going to be motivated to show up to vote on this off-year will not be Bevin fans, unlike 2015 which was a bad environment for Democrats, had abysmally low turnout, followed two terms of Democratic control, and the Dem nominee was a failed tainted Senate candidate rather than the son of a popular governor who still managed to win a statewide race that same year. Even then Bevin won by single digits.

And with every poll that shows Bevin farther and farther behind — Hell even after his pitiful showing in his own GOP primary he barely scraped by in — you are just willfully removing yourselves farther and farther from reality with your absurd mental gymnastics to explain how ackshually Bevin is ahead.

And no I don’t live in Louisville. I don’t live in a blue bubble. Half my family and friends at least are Republicans. All of those Republicans have said they will not vote for Bevin. Some have outright said they will vote for Beshear. Who has gotten endorsements from Republican State reps and mayors across the state. He has no support whatsoever from HIS OWN STATE PARTY. The man is toast. And it will be SO gratifying to see that become reality come November, and how quiet I imagine most of you will be then.

[Alben Barkley]

Yes, said Representative Amy McGrath.

The polls for McGrath almost uniformly showed it as an extremely close toss-up, with FiveThirtyEight’s final forecast showing it as almost exactly a 50/50 toss-up. Then she lost... 51-48. Wow! So inaccurate! Say people who have no idea how polls work...

The McGrath argument has to be the dumbest in this thread, which is saying a LOT. A House race in a state that has always had a major gulf between how it votes in federal and state races was accurately forecasted by polls, therefore the polls of a gubernatorial race featuring the least popular governor in the country vs. the son of a popular two-term former governor who won statewide office on the same day as the current governor MUST be inaccurate! The logic there is nonexistent.

But, you know, Trump won Kentucky bigly and has even endorsed Bevin! So that means the state will never vote for another Democrat for any office ever again, right? And obviously any polls showing otherwise are wrong. I mean, just ask Senator Morrissey of West Virginia!