KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Alben Barkley]

If McGrath is still leading at the end of the night, she'll almost certainly win due to an advantage in mail-in ballots (Booker's surge didn't come until pretty late). Even if she's losing narrowly, she'll probably win after all the ballots come in.

Booker would probably want to be closer than within 12 points by now. Because while he will likely win Jessamine Jefferson* County, it probably isn't gonna be a blowout there big enough to make up for losing the rest of the state.

*Clearly I've had too much bourbon tonight...

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/HolmesJosh/status/1275574879916605441

...Based on the same day voting only. Doubt that will hold in the end.

[Alben Barkley]

And this must be said

This is not a liberal vs moderate contest. This is a candidate propped up by out of state suburbanites and a candidate supported by local longtime (and I will say #populist ) democrats. Let's go Charles.

I don't really like either of them. McGrath is clearly a weak candidate. If that wasn't clear before (it was to this KY-06 Jim Gray voter, who was indeed kind of pissed that in 2018 she came out of nowhere and spoiled the race for a great mayor), it certainly should be if she barely beats a guy no one had heard of a week ago despite having all the money and DSCC support on her side.

But Booker is even more DOA in this state than she is. The kind of "populism" supported by the Sunrise Movement does not play well in most of Kentucky. It's really just a matter of who will lose to McConnell and by how much.

I don't know, at this point I'm kind of hoping both will somehow lose. I voted for McGrath weeks ago, reluctantly. But I'm not even sure I still would today. I will have some schadenfreude if she ends up losing to an upstart in a similar fashion to what she did to Jim Gray. And yeah, Booker is at least a real Kentuckian.

All I know for sure is I REALLY wish Rocky Adkins or even Matt Jones had run, and I'm pissed at Schumer for apparently picking McGrath over Jones. If he had bothered to ask me or anyone else who lives in her district, we would have told him how bad a candidate she was. Her flashy Marine fighter ads couldn't make up for that. She totally blew that very winnable seat.

[Alben Barkley]

Louisville primary results to be released earlier than expected today:

https://www.wdrb.com/politics/louisville-primary-results-to-be-released-earlier-than-expected-on-tuesday/article_94081890-ba23-11ea-8ab4-5b487597e80d.html

Should be here by 10 AM.

[Alben Barkley]

Well looks like it's gonna turn out just about exactly how I predicted: Quite close due to Booker's dominance in Jefferson/Fayette in the same day vote, but his getting crushed elsewhere in the state combined with the early mail-in vote favoring McGrath in a big way killed his chances.

Still a very weak performance for McGrath, however. And it's quite possible Booker would have won if there was no early vote due to his late surge. Just like Biden probably would have won some of the Super Tuesday states without the heavy mail-in vote that Bernie won, as he surged late as well.

[Alben Barkley]

Likely R -> Safe R

LOL no.

Safe R -> Safe R

[Alben Barkley]

McGrath comes off so emotionless and sterile. At least Booker would've put up a fight and increased downballot turnout.

What evidence are you getting the idea that Booker would have increased downballot turnout from? Where would he have done that? Clearly McGrath does better in just about all of the state except Louisville and Lexington, which are already the most Democratic parts of the state and will probably just trend more that way this year anyway. Not saying much, but at the end of the day the differences between these two candidates' performance in the general would likely be marginal as their strengths and weaknesses would more or less offset each other. Neither is a good candidate for Kentucky at all. Adkins or even Jones would have been much better.

But still, McGrath will probably do slightly better than Booker would have simply due to the fact that a black left-wing progressive who supports the Green New Deal would have been pulverized in Eastern Kentucky to a much greater extent. McGrath at least might hold on to Elliot County and others in the region that have never voted for McConnell. Booker might have lost even those, even if his margins in Fayette/Jefferson may have been slightly larger.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1148561454037184512?s=19

I mean, he ain't wrong.

That performance was far from impressive. She easily could and should have won. She lost due to incompetent campaigning. Totally blew it.

[Alben Barkley]

Tonight's debate.

https://twitter.com/donmoyn/status/1315810457110958081

Goddamn I wish he could lose. I don't want him to die knowing he never lost an election, which he probably will because he probably won't run again after his next term. It's just not fair.