KY-PPP (D): Generic D +10 vs Bevin

[Alben Barkley]

Some of these posts are so bad I — a lurker — literally felt compelled to sign up just to rebut them.

Clearly many of you understand little about Kentucky politics, but know just enough to be dangerous. As someone born and raised in the state, and who is very in-tune with its current political climate, allow me to explain a few things:

Yes, Kentucky has become far more inflexibly Republican over the past couple decades, and yes, this trend has been seen to some extent even in state level races. BUT that does not mean it is lost to Democrats forever in any race for any office against any candidate.

Jack Conway was a rather disliked figure in the state, or at least not particularly liked. There was little-to-no enthusiasm among just about anyone in the state to vote for Conway, not even among those who would have voted for him if forced to choose, which was why turnout was abysmal that year and why he lost decisively even though he led in the polls. It said nothing about Matt Bevin’s popularity in particular or a total reversal of Kentucky’s tendency to favor Democratic governors in spite of its heavy lean towards Republicans on the presidential/senatorial level. It just said everything about poorly motivated Democratic voters and strongly motivated Republican voters in 2015.

Now, however, Matt Bevin is an exceedingly unpopular known quantity who will most likely run against the son of a very popular governor — who won two statewide landslides within the last 15 years, long after the state went deep red — who himself managed to win statewide office the same year Bevin did, with far more voter enthusiasm in the Democrats’ favor this year than in 2015. He’s toast.

And I say this not just based on wishful thinking or some Louisville or Lexington bubble; my staunchly GOP, Trump voting relatives in south central and eastern Kentucky called Bevin, and I quote, “a f—ing idiot” last time I talked to them. He is literally the least popular governor in the country. His tenure has been plagued by extremely unpopular decisions and mutiny from his own party, which he has no firm grasp on or strong support from whatsoever. He has been booed heavily during speeches in eastern Kentucky and even at the Kentucky Derby. He’s about as popular as Roger Goodell now. Beshear will wipe the floor with him.

And no, a Trump endorsement will not save him any more than it saved Roy Moore, Patrick Morrissey, etc. Kentucky might be inelastic at the national level, and its recent polling history might be dubious, but I am still confident the state is capable for voting Democrat for governor against an incumbent as ridiculously bad as Matt Bevin, who is less popular than Ernie Fletcher ever was.

Yes, I base much of this on anecdotal experience, personal conversation, and gut instinct — but that proved more reliable than polls in 2016, when I became convinced Trump would win after driving through Ohio and Michigan and seeing Trump signs everywhere but no Hillary signs. Now I get the opposite feeling in this race; the support for Bevin is just not there. Everyone I know from all over the state and the political spectrum either openly hates him or is lukewarm about him at best. Beshear will win comfortably, improving on his own 2015 AG map. Mark my words.