Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Alben Barkley]

https://www.wbur.org/news/2020/04/24/warren-biden-vice-president-chances

[Alben Barkley]

Article has nothing of substance and just quotes some people speculating. Ignore it.

NPR doesn’t usually publish crap. Combine these expert opinions — speculative though they may be —  with earlier reports from inside Biden’s camp that Warren is being seriously considered, and I think there’s a decent chance she really could be the pick.

[Alben Barkley]

When Obama picked Biden everyone thought that he was too old to ever run for president again.
And yet here we are.

And we’re not necessarily better off. Biden and Bernie effectively shut out every other candidate in the race. We’ll not have had anything near a wide-open primary in 16 years come 2024. I’d prefer a candidate secure the nomination on their own strengths (Obama ‘08, Clinton ‘92) than on de-facto incumbency (Gore ‘00, Clinton ‘16, Biden ‘20).

You can call it de-facto if you want, but the three candidates listed (Gore, Clinton, Biden) were also the most experienced candidates in their respective fields.  Like it or not, experience is a strength.  

Actually it’s usually a weakness. This is the only cycle since probably ‘68 where experience has been a positive.

Was HRC really the most experienced candidate? She spent 8 years in the Senate and then 4 as SoS sure that seems like a lot but Biden was a Senator for 36 years and then Vice President for another 8 years, Gore was a Congressman for 15 years and then VP for 8. Not to mention his service in Vietnam and his political father. In 2016 Bernie was a Congressman for 25 years and then a Mayor for 8 years before that, O'Malley spent 8 years as Mayor and 8 years as Governor, Chafee spent 8 years in the Senate, 4 years as Governor, and 6 years as Mayor, and was also the son of a prominent politician.


If you want to compare that to the least experienced Democratic nominees since 1968, before their nomination.

George McGovern, US Representative from South Dakota 4 years, US Senator from South Dakota 9 years, Director of "Food for Peace" 2 years, WW2 Veteran

Michael Dukakis, 9 years as Governor of Massachusetts, 8 years in the Massachusetts State Assembly, US Army Veteran

Jimmy Carter, 4 years in the Georgia State Senate, 4 years as Governor of Georgia, Navy Veteran

John Kerry, 2 years as Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, 19 years US Senator from Massachusetts, Vietnam Veteran

So the only Democratic nominee since 1968  that HRC had more experience then was Jimmy Carter, but if you exclude legislature time then Dukakis as well.

This is all quantitative, completely ignoring the qualitative element. Being a senator for more years doesn't necessarily mean you're more prepared for the presidency because you've been in a lot of leadership roles or anything like that. Bernie for example ranks near dead last for actual leadership in Congress according to measures of how often the bills he sponsors get to the floor and gets passed, etc.

Hillary was a pretty active senator even though she wasn't there as long as some of these others, and moreover four years as SoS is EXTREMELY valuable foreign policy experience that NONE of these others could compare to. And considering the most power the president directly has is probably in the field of foreign policy, that's pretty damn significant.

Plus, being First Lady can't simply be brushed off either. She had an active office in the White House and was tasked with more responsibility as First Lady than any other in history with the possible exception of Eleanor Roosevelt. Had more power and influence too. She and Bill were partners in just about everything they did. I mean for Christ's sake, she was in charge of one of the most significant and difficult tasks of his presidency -- healthcare reform. It didn't work out, but not for lack of trying on her part. She not only took an active role in Congress, she toured the country trying to sell the legislation to the public.

So when you take 8 years of being almost co-president, plus 8 years in the Senate, plus 4 years as SoS -- that's a damn impressive resume. The important thing was we all knew she would know exactly what she was doing from day one when she entered the White House. She knew everything that had to be done and everybody that had to be talked to. Hell, she knew exactly where to go in the White House itself. It's hard to beat that kind of experience. Just sitting in the Senate for a while isn't quite the same.

The only person who I think is about as experienced as her is John Kerry, due to his time as both a Senator and SoS. They are quite literally the two most qualified people on Earth to be president.

And if you want to talk about being a Mayor of a small town as relevant experience to the presidency... No. Just no. This is why Buttigieg was a non-starter for me. South Bend might as well be on a different planet from Washington, same with Burlington.

[Alben Barkley]

Amy tows the party line. She said what she said with the full blessing of the Biden campaign.

It's not going to be Warren.

That’s probably right since Biden quickly tweeted this in response:

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/1273816170081193984?s=21

[Alben Barkley]

Is there any meaning to the fact that Biden is apparently gonna do a live joint fundraiser with Warren the night before he’s supposed to announce his pick?

[Alben Barkley]

This is a lot like the 2020 primary. Everybody knew it was going to be Biden so they wanted to see other candidates and the moment the crazy pick look it going to win everybody went to Biden.  

Although, to be fair, the downfall was partially due to the Bernie campaign deciding to hyperfocus on turning out their base. Turns out making enemies with everyone leaves you unable to break past 30%.

I’m glad to see at least some of his supporters understand that.

Still, I think it would have been an uphill battle for him to ever gain enough votes in this party to win even if he ran a kinder, gentler campaign. The moderates/establishment were likely gonna consolidate around SOMEONE, be that Biden or whoever else. And the harsh fact is most black voters (and, seemingly, a lot of WWC voters who only voted for hin last time as the “someone else” option) simply do not trust Bernie and were not gonna be swayed to vote for him no matter what. Bernie could have made it more competitive, but I honestly think 2016 may have been almost his best case scenario. He was doomed to lose a one-on-one with Biden and most other candidates. Maybe his only hope actually was praying that the field remained divided long enough for him to pull off a Trump 2016 and scrape by with a plurality as a factional candidate.

[Alben Barkley]

The circlejerk of hate here for Rice is bizarre and irrational. I’m almost hoping she gets it now just to spite you all.

She has some liabilities maybe (“BENGHAZI!!!”), but is certainly skilled and experienced enough for the job. She is not a “hack,” nor does the fact that she is a “millionaire” matter — so is Biden, and so is (GASP) Bernie!

Plus, it’s not necessarily a bad thing that she has no electoral experience. Maybe someone who isn’t going to overshadow Biden and be campaigning for her own presidency from day one could be for the best?

[Alben Barkley]

The clock emoticons are set at 3 o'clock and, if it's a stopwatch, it could mean we'll be getting the announcement in another 9 hours.

9 hours would be 9:30 EST, 6:30 PST

That'd be maximum coverage for both time zones, but particularly the west coast.

California is on the west coast.

Ergo, Karen Bass is the pick!

I think you're reading into it too much. That's just what the clock emoticon looks like by default.

[Alben Barkley]

Which is more likely to happen?

-Biden’s running mate announcement within 24 hrs
-Wonder Woman 1984 being released in theaters this fall
-The Detroit Tigers winning the 2020 World Series

All are more likely than Nate Silver’s model being released before the election.

[Alben Barkley]

She was definitely following him before. Maybe her account is being revamped idk

Only other explanation than pettiness I can think of is that it IS her and their pages are being consolidated to some kind of Biden/Harris hybrid or something.

[Alben Barkley]

Harris never struck me as the vindictive type and honestly what purpose would unfollowing Biden on social media serve?  I wouldn't read much into this.

Lmao what if it's Obama

Not constitutionally eligible.

Not necessarily. The constitutionality is up for debate. We had a thread about this: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342226.msg7031969#msg7031969

Either way I was joking

He wouldn’t be eligible.

The constitution states: “But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States“.

But the Constitution never says Obama is ineligible to the office of President, only ineligible to be ELECTED to the office of President again. Important distinction.

[Alben Barkley]

Harris never struck me as the vindictive type and honestly what purpose would unfollowing Biden on social media serve?  I wouldn't read much into this.

Lmao what if it's Obama

Not constitutionally eligible.

Not necessarily. The constitutionality is up for debate. We had a thread about this: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342226.msg7031969#msg7031969

Either way I was joking

He wouldn’t be eligible.

The constitution states: “But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States“.

Yup.  Pretty clear.  There may be a debate about this...but one side of that debate is just plain wrong.

Eligibility for the office & eligibility for election to the office are 2 different things, given that one can succeed to the office without being elected to it.

Did nobody teach you about how textualism works?

Yeah, I don't get the distinction.  Are you saying he can run but can't serve?

No, the opposite.

[Alben Barkley]

Maxine Waters may know something?

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1292939934660272170?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Anyone else thing Biden ia deliberately trolling us now?

Could Biden be an atlas user lol?

There's a sizeable chance someone like Bitecofer, Silver, or someone else like that is a member of atlas and hides behind a fake account

I mean we know we have JHK.

[Alben Barkley]

When's the latest ya'll can reasonably see something happened tonight? 8 EST?

8 EST seems reasonable — prime time on the east coast, quitting time on the west coast. Not totally unfathomable it could even come later, but the chances get real slim after like 9 EST.

[Alben Barkley]

It seems pretty clear the decision has been made, what with those teasing tweets and all. I wish they’d just release the damn name. I’ll be real disappointed if they don’t tonight.

[Alben Barkley]

It's also possible Whitmer was interviewed not just for VP but also other possible cabinet positions too?

I’d rather just stay Governor of Michigan if I were her.

[Alben Barkley]

Looks like the model and the VP are most likely coming on the same day — Wednesday, my dudes.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1293262239332532226?s=20

No event doesn’t necessarily mean no announcement... right? RIGHT???

[Alben Barkley]

Well there you go:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1293262951839944709?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/D_jeneration/status/1293259437822447616?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Thank god Bass is out. Florida still in Biden’s column then.

[Alben Barkley]

No surprise here, but Abrams is out:

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1293279116494540800

[Alben Barkley]

And so, after all this drama, the most predictable ticket people have guessed since like 2017 turns out to be the ticket.

[Alben Barkley]

This creates another parallel to 1980 by the way: Reagan chose his primary rival who infamously attacked him on the debate stage as VP.