MN-07: Fischbach in

[LiberalDem19]

She'd absolutely win a general.

Problem is, she has to get through a primary first.

One thing to point out is that the Pawlenty-Fischbach ticket failed to carry the Fischbach senate district in the primary.

I don't think she's the inevitable nominee, but if the GOP is smart, they'll nominate her over Hughes.

And Hughes isn't just some nobody at this point that the GOP pulled off the street.

[LiberalDem19]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

[LiberalDem19]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Okay, but i'd be hard pressed to rate this as Safe R when it's an agricultural district and the Republican wants to continue the current trade policies that are hurting farmers. Toss Up is a fair rating. Also Fischbach's planning on abiding by the party endorsement, and those delegates might go with Hughes. They always endorse the furthest right candidate at the endorsing conventions.

[LiberalDem19]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/09/03/fischbach-says-she-will-back-trump-on-trade-other-issues

You guys sure you wanna rate this as Safe Republican?

I'm sure the district that Trump won by 30 is going to swing hard left because of muh trade issues

Last year some democrats on Twitter thought that Heitkamp would be reelected because of the ''Trade War''.

Yeah, some people on this website just have a hard time accepting the fact that hordes of voters vote against their interests and will continue to do so. Look no further than Appalachia or specifically Kentucky.

I'm not saying Fischbach won't win, but it seems dumb to say this is Safe GOP when there's an incumbent Dem who's won 14 terms. Not only that, but he's proven he can win a sizeable chunk of Trump supporters, since he outran the top of the ticket by 36 points in 2016.

[LiberalDem19]

I said this was safe R the day after the midterms despite countless Atlas posters insisting otherwise and I cannot wait for my vindication.

And that was a silly prediction.  You didn’t have enough information to reasonably base that guess on to make it accolade-worthy.

1) District is trending hard and fast to the right
2) Polarization increases more and more every year, even Klobuchar only won the district by 0.1% and Smith/Walz got crushed there
3) Trump will be on the ballot and once again win the district by at minimum 20+ points
4) Peterson won by a narrow margin last year, doing worse than he did in 2016 against the same opponent despite the NRCC giving him a free pass and the nation as a whole swinging double digits Democratic
5) Unless the NRCC is the most incompetent organization on the planet, they would have to target him this time since it is obviously a seat they need to pick up in order to take back the House

I'd say that's more than enough info.

1) This is a fair point.

2) Peterson regularly over-preforms to the point that I don't think this means much.

3) I could see Trump "only" winning here by 20% which is a 10% drop from 2016.  I think with a little luck and a decent environment, Peterson could survive that against a weak Republican like Dave Hughes.  However, it was unclear for a while whether the Republicans were going to be able to recruit a decent candidate for once or would simply be stuck with Hughes again.  I also think one could easily argue that Peterson was almost caught napping in 2016 and just lucked out that it didn't cost him the seat.

4) This is your best point and why Lean R has made sense for a while now even before we knew Fischbach was running. 

5) I dunno, the NRCC's consultants seem to be pretty dumb about these sorts of things.  Peterson's been given a pass by them since 2014  

Anyway, enough info to say Peterson was extremely vulnerable?  Absolutely.  Enough to start MN-7 at Lean R?  Certainly not an unreasonable prediction.  Enough to start it at Safe R the day after the 2018 midterm?  No, that's just a silly #HotTake.

He also overperformed Obama and Clinton by roughly the same margin in 2012 and 2016 (35 points and 34 points), and actually outperformed Tina Smith by more than he did Al Franken (19 points vs. 8 points), so there's not really much evidence that polarization is hurting him. The people splitting their tickets aren't all of a sudden voting straight line against him.

[LiberalDem19]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

[LiberalDem19]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

Yep, pretty bloody sure

So, an agricultural district with a 14 term incumbent Dem who's also the chair of the ag committee is Safe Republican, not even Lean Republican, when the Republican doesn't know the answer to one of the most basic questions related to agriculture?

That's quite the bold take

[LiberalDem19]

https://kfgo.com/podcasts/news-views-with-joel-heitkamp/117905/michelle-fischbach-on-trump-trade-war-and-what-the-breakout-is-on-mfp-payments-i-dont-know-off-the-t/?fbclid=IwAR1uKAHgYyRqab_BejJsaTh9ucwiSnJyibFeSRnpA0yOBVJSD4OOQK695yg

Are y'all really sure that this race is Safe Republican when the leading GOP candidate doesn't even know what the price of soy is?

Yep, pretty bloody sure

So, an agricultural district with a 14 term incumbent Dem who's also the chair of the ag committee is Safe Republican, not even Lean Republican, when the Republican doesn't know the answer to one of the most basic questions related to agriculture?

That's quite the bold take

I have two questions:

1) Does Trump know any of the basic questions related to agriculture?
2) How do you think Trump will do in this district in 2020?

1) Not much, but he'll be running against Biden, Harris, Warren or Bernie, all of whom Collin Peterson is a much better candidate than.
2) He'll win it, but not by 30 points. He'll probably get it by 20-25 points or so. And I can see Peterson doing 20-25 points better than the Presidential nominee.

Again, I am not disputing a Lean R rating. I'm disputing a Safe Republican rating. It's honestly madness that anyone would say that the district is Safe, given its history of voting in Peterson.