USA Today/Gallup (NOT TRACKING): Mac 50, Obama 46 (RV); Mac 54, Obama 44 (LV)

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If it's still like this in 3-4 days, then I'll be concerned. If McCain is still up by this much by next weekend, then I'll be scared sh!tless.

What if he's up by this much before election night?

I would put all my assets in gold. Good thing I don't have that many assets.

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If it's still like this in 3-4 days, then I'll be concerned. If McCain is still up by this much by next weekend, then I'll be scared sh!tless.

What if he's up by this much before election night?

If McCain is up by 3-4 or more by election day. It's over. I still think the best thing Hillary did for Obama is force him to develop operations in all 50 states during the primaries. I still think that the superior GOTV operation will give Obama a 1-2 point bump from what the polls will show on the eve of election day.

To whom would you give the advantage to if the consensus was that the candidates were tied?

I'd say Obama. Through superior registration efforts that the polls haven't completely captured, enthusiasm (a gap that favors Obama but seems to be closing somewhat), and a good(hopefully) GOTV effort. I'd go to Obama by about 1-2%, I think.

I actually think that McCain will have the advantage, because of things like the Bradley effect.  Even though it may not be very statistically significant, it could affect swing states there are above average racial tensions (i.e. Ohio).

It would be pretty much a dead heat, though, perhaps as close to the Gore-Bush popular vote margin.

I think if the race is tied going in then the election itself will be horrendously close as well. Obama has the advantage when you factor in non-polling of cell phones, GOTV, enthusiasm but he will probably lose that advantage due to the Bradley effect. The bradley effect will vary from state to state and I would say if CO is tied before the election it goes to Obama but if Ohio is tied it goes to Mccain. West vs East basically.

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JJ you don't think Obama has a better GOTV operation in critical states than Mccain? I think that in itself gives him a 1-2 point advantage which is of course taken away by the bradley effect. Thus if the polls say the race is tied before the election, the result will be extremely close( 2000 style).

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JJ you don't think Obama has a better GOTV operation in critical states than Mccain? I think that in itself gives him a 1-2 point advantage which is of course taken away by the bradley effect. Thus if the polls say the race is tied before the election, the result will be extremely close( 2000 style).

With the energized GOP....our GOTV will be huge too.

I am talking about the organization of it. In 2004 the churches pushed Bush big time and did a lot of the organizational stuff for him and that got him those huge margins in SW ohio. Will it happen again this year? Palin is the x factor. Anyways Obama has proved he is a much better at GOTV than other candidates and will probably be better than Kerry.

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I'm really shocked. Palin has turned out to be a genius move!

This has nothing to do with that.

You think McCain would be leading by 10 if Mitt Romney was chosen as VP? No way.

It's called a "convention bounce". Romney? Probably not. Pawlenty or anyone else without sky-high disapprovals? Probably, (though "leading by 10 is quite misleading)

Of course it's a convention bounce. Why can't the Democrats get something called a bounce?

But Palin has energized this ticket. Pawlenty and Romney would not have come close to doing that.

The democrats were getting a nice little bounce but then Palin came up and got her own bounce and messed things up. If the palin pick did not happen that friday I would not have been surprised if Obama got a couple days of numbers close to +8. He actually did get one night of numbers near +11 in gallup.

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JJ you don't think Obama has a better GOTV operation in critical states than Mccain? I think that in itself gives him a 1-2 point advantage which is of course taken away by the bradley effect. Thus if the polls say the race is tied before the election, the result will be extremely close( 2000 style).

You're basically asking two questions.

Q1.  Will Obama have a good GOTV?

Q2.  Will Obama have a qualitative better GOTV?

The answer to the first question is yes, probably.  There could be a funding problem, and I'll explain that on a different thread.  It's a potential problem, it isn't there yet, but it could occur.

The answer to the second question is no.  Obama is going to rely on the same people, basically to GOTV at the local level.  Kerry in OH is an example.  Kerry in OH, from what I've heard, had a fantastic ground game; everybody did everything right.  He lost OH. 

At the local level, really at the presinct level, the people that can turn out the vote are the local people that are already there.  They know the needs of the voter on election day.  They know that Joe will vote, if you give him a ride.  They know that if Mary isn't at the polls by 3:00 PM, you better give her a call.  That is local knowledge, but that is the true GOTV.  Anyone "new" won't help with that.

Some things, like getting volunteers for lit drops, election day driving, phone bank callers, will help, but I don't know if that will be a qualitative improvement over Kerry in terms of true GOTV.  It can help, slightly, with motivation of a voter prior to election day; it will have limited value getting voters to the polls.

I have heard that Obama has currently got a better ground game in critical states than Mccain. This is expected due to Obama having competed in basically every state in the primary but will Mccain be able to overcome that advantage? As for funding problems are you talking about Obama or Mccain?

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I think many are getting freaked out since we never really got to see Obama's big bump due to the Palin pick. We seemed to be getting it earlier this week but then the RNC started. I think we should all calm down and wait a couple of weeks.

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I have heard that Obama has currently got a better ground game in critical states than Mccain. This is expected due to Obama having competed in basically every state in the primary but will Mccain be able to overcome that advantage? As for funding problems are you talking about Obama or Mccain?

Not in terms of GOTV, possibly excepting CO, but I don't know what they are planning there.

The idea of the actual GOTV improving because of the Primary is not accurate.  I also know, from watching, that his Primary GOTV was poor in PA.

Their could be an Obama funding problem, if the polling starts looking bad.  It was a gamble to decline matching funds, a gamble that his popularity would still be high in the Fall.  If he has 2-3 weeks of bad polling, people won't "invest" in Obama at the rate needed to sustain the campaign.  That is the critical problem at this point.  What's Obama's cash on hand like?

Well his current problems could actually lead to more people sending him money. If he makes a huge gaffe then its a whole another story. As for GOTV I was just pointing out that Obama has had people in these states for a long time now and they must be coordinating with the local dems to create a better GOTV system. I dunno why but I just feel at the grassroots level this team is much better than other democratic candidates. Rove created one hell of a grassroots network for Bush in 04 and I really think that is what provided him his margin of victory. Every possible Bush voter got to the poll in the key states.

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I have heard that Obama has currently got a better ground game in critical states than Mccain. This is expected due to Obama having competed in basically every state in the primary but will Mccain be able to overcome that advantage? As for funding problems are you talking about Obama or Mccain?

Not in terms of GOTV, possibly excepting CO, but I don't know what they are planning there.

The idea of the actual GOTV improving because of the Primary is not accurate.  I also know, from watching, that his Primary GOTV was poor in PA.

Their could be an Obama funding problem, if the polling starts looking bad.  It was a gamble to decline matching funds, a gamble that his popularity would still be high in the Fall.  If he has 2-3 weeks of bad polling, people won't "invest" in Obama at the rate needed to sustain the campaign.  That is the critical problem at this point.  What's Obama's cash on hand like?

Well his current problems could actually lead to more people sending him money. If he makes a huge gaffe then its a whole another story. As for GOTV I was just pointing out that Obama has had people in these states for a long time now and they must be coordinating with the local dems to create a better GOTV system. I dunno why but I just feel at the grassroots level this team is much better than other democratic candidates. Rove created one hell of a grassroots network for Bush in 04 and I really think that is what provided him his margin of victory. Every possible Bush voter got to the poll in the key states.

The best GOTV is the guy in the precinct that knows when individuals normally show up, because he's been doing it for five (or twenty-five) years.

Right, which is why the Obama team would work with local leaders but I am saying that they can perhaps provide more resources than before. Plus they must be contacting people who have never voted before as well. Getting those new voters registered and getting them to the polls is something that is essential for an Obama victory. This will be especially true in suburban areas where people don't go door to door looking for votes like they do in philly or other big cities. For example the Bush folks organized mainly by phone calls. I read somewhere that the local church groups made enormous numbers of phone calls motivating people and getting them out to vote on election day.