% chance mccain wins ohio

[Sbane]

Around 40%

You really think that low? Obama faces big hurdles in southeastern.

I'd say 50-55%.

I think Obama will overperform in the western parts of the state that are contiguous with Indiana. Also I am hoping he does well in the cincy and columbus suburbs. He will definitely get owned in the southeast and will probably slightly underperform Kerry in the northeast. Still Mccain has about a 40-45% chance of winning the state.

[Sbane]

Around 40%

You really think that low? Obama faces big hurdles in southeastern.

I'd say 50-55%.

I think Obama will overperform in the western parts of the state that are contiguous with Indiana. Also I am hoping he does well in the cincy and columbus suburbs. He will definitely get owned in the southeast and will probably slightly underperform Kerry in the northeast. Still Mccain has about a 40-45% chance of winning the state.

The voting patterns in Ohio contiguous to Indiana are very stable, is my recollection, just like in next door Ft. Wayne, the patterns are more volatile (no doubt due to how active JS gets or something ). Heck in a special CD election in Northwest Ohio about a year ago, the Pubbie trounced the Dem based on the normal partisan divide, the only time that has happened over the past two years.

So then what part of Indiana is Obama getting his huge bounce from? The Indianapolis burbs no doubt but Ft.wayne and sorrounding areas also must be moving democratic. Bush got more than 70% of the vote in some of those counties near Indiana. I don't think that will occur again but still most of Obama's gains will have to come from Cincinnati and Columbus.

[Sbane]

Obama is getting a bounce from Northeast Indiana, but something happens at that border. Northeast Indiana has always been more volatile than Western Ohio, since rocks cooled actually.

interesting.....Mccain definitely has a good chance of picking up Ohio imo. It all depends on what the hillbillies want to do.