CA-Sen: California Quake

[Sbane]

If there is any person who can lose this senate race for the Democrats, it is Steyer. He will win the bay area but he will collapse in the central valley among hispanics (water and jobs issue) and quite possibly could in southern california as well. Rich, white liberals are not the swing vote in California, it is moderate to conservative minorities. A generic democrat wins that vote easily in this environment but things get interesting if it is an out of touch billionaire vs a moderate like Kashkari or Swearingen. In any case, California is more likely to vote in a Republican governor before a senator barring unusual circumstances.

[Sbane]

If there is any person who can lose this senate race for the Democrats, it is Steyer. He will win the bay area but he will collapse in the central valley among hispanics (water and jobs issue) and quite possibly could in southern california as well. Rich, white liberals are not the swing vote in California, it is moderate to conservative minorities. A generic democrat wins that vote easily in this environment but things get interesting if it is an out of touch billionaire vs a moderate like Kashkari or Swearingen. In any case, California is more likely to vote in a Republican governor before a senator barring unusual circumstances.

It's California in a presidential year. There's no scenario outside of an R vs. R race that Democrats lose.

An out of touch billionaire obsessed with the climate could make it happen. It would take a realignment in California, of course, with minorities voting Republican in dramatically higher numbers. It will likely happen with the Governor's race way before the Senate though, since the local candidates don't have all the baggage of the idiotic national Republican party.

[Sbane]

Swalwell will decide by month's end.

I hope Swalwell runs because he will get absolutely crushed. A good way to get rid of him in congress too. That bigot (against atheists/agnostics) doesn't deserve to be in congress.

[Sbane]

Why are people thinking Harris won't do well with Latinos? They have no reason not to support her. She has been very friendly on immigrant rights issues and herself is a child of immigrants. If anything, this should attract Latinos to her candidacy. Furthermore, Latinos will only make up about 30-35% of the Democratic voting electorate in the primary, so while their vote is crucial, it doesn't necessarily determine who wins the primary.

[Sbane]

I suspect it will be Sanchez vs Harris.  Sanchez will try to appeal to moderates in the general election, as well as Hispanics.  I could see her winning if she campaigns well.

If she tries to play the Latino card too much, she will lose. She needs to do it covertly, and make sure it is not being printed in the LA times. In the top two primary, Latinos won't make up more than maybe 20% of the vote.