Orange County, California: Rise and Fall (?) of a Conservative Bastion

[Sbane]

I think the housing crisis inflated Obama's numbers in inland parts of southern california( basically half of OC and all of the inland empire). That being said, Obama winning the 48th must certainly cause some concerns for Republicans. If they nominate someone like a Palin, Huckabee or even Gingrich they may lose OC. If they nominate Romney or Pawlenty they will probably see OC trending towards them.

[Sbane]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

[Sbane]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

[Sbane]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

Depressed Republican turn out.

And what is this based upon?

[Sbane]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

Based on trends, demographics, the fact that Jim Costa can't even visit small farm towns anymore, and an overall GOP rebound in CA and nationwide.

First of all those small towns are not really representative of the Central Valley. If Republicans are bouncing back there (and I wouldn't be surprised since it got owned hardcore by the housing crisis) they will be doing better in the bigger cities. Secondly this does not explain how the suburbs of OC are going back to the Republicans. These areas are very well educated and well educated people are staying with the Democrats.

[Sbane]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

Depressed Republican turn out.

And what is this based upon?

Lack of enthusiasm for John McCain, nationwide low Republican turnout, and the fact that Obama was able to get 48% in Orange County. How much clearer could it get?

Was there really low Republican turnout in 2008? Remember that a lot of Republicans dumped their party and went independent during the fiasco that was the 2nd Bush term.

[Sbane]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

Does OC really have a large veteran population? It may have been true once but I am not sure if that is so anymore. Remember a lot of older whites from California have been leaving the state for years. These people live in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho these days.

[Sbane]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

Does OC really have a large veteran population? It may have been true once but I am not sure if that is so anymore. Remember a lot of older whites from California have been leaving the state for years. These people live in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho these days.

He's referring to SD, which McCain did lose by a slim margin.

Ah that makes sense. Of course SD has always had  liberal areas and the well educated areas went towards Obama this time. The 50th CD would be an example. The housing crisis factored in a bit also.

[Sbane]

McCain barely carried my rather rich (some parts very rich as one reaches the top of the hill) and WASP dominated precinct in OC, which has almost no Hispanics in it, and might be 10% Asian or so, and 5% Jewish, among those who voted.  That swing  was replicated in large part throughout my suburb, which while on average less rich, has about the same demographics. The sharp swing to Obama vis a vis Bush in OC had little to do with the Hispanic vote. 

Well look at the swing in Santa Ana or the 47th district as a whole. Hispanics were certainly a key reason for the swing (remember Hispanics tend to fit in with their environment which would explain why they are more republican in OC), but the secular upper middle class was also an integral part of the swing.