Turkey local elections 2024

[Logical]

Stronger than expected results for CHP. Perhaps the Sultan must delay his retirement.

[Logical]

Shockingly good victory for CHP. They've decisively beaten the AKP in major metros. They're winning in very conservative interior Anatolian provinces like Adiyaman, Kilis and Kirikkale. Was kicking out the Alevi all they needed to do to start winning again?

[Logical]

Aksener finally resigns as IYI leader after an embarrassing performance. Ultranationalists of all stripes (MHP and its offshoots) did poorly tonight.
This election offers a glimpse of what post-Erdogan politics may look like. The ultranationalists will likely continue to decline, in its place hardline Islamists (YRP, HÜDA PAR) have grown. Future Presidential elections will be determined by how the Kurds and hardline Islamists swing.
Finally, the results validate my belief that Imamoglu would've won in 2023 (at least if the results weren't fudged).

[Logical]

Aksener finally resigns as IYI leader after an embarrassing performance. Ultranationalists of all stripes (MHP and it's offshoots) did poorly tonight.
This election offers a glimpse of what post-Erdogan politics may look like. The ultranationalists will likely continue to decline, in its place hardline Islamists (YRP, HÜDA PAR) have grown. Future Presidential elections will be determined by how the Kurds and hardline Islamists swing.
Finally, the results validate my belief that Imamoglu would've won in 2023.

It seems to me that MHP are doing alright?

Their vote has halved. From 7.3% to 3.6%.

[Logical]

why is New Welfare/Y Refah not included in the People's Alliance on the "electoral alliance" page? Everything I see says they're part of it.

Because they quit the Alliance and are running on their own. They attack Erdogan from the right and use the I/P conflict as a rallying issue.

[Logical]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

Quick explanation of how Turkish local government works. There are two types of first tier local government, Metro Municipalities and Regular Provinces. Metro Municipalities have greater powers and elect a Mayor. Regular Provinces have little power and is mostly administrative/ceremonial.
When they color a result from a Regular Province in the national map, they mean only the result in the Provincial capital (which always shares the name of the province).

As to why CHP is losing in Kirklareli? The incumbent mayor is rather unpopular, it's a local election and these things still mater.

[Logical]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

Quick explanation of how Turkish local government works. There are two types of first tier local government, Metro Municipalities and Regular Provinces. Metro Municipalities have greater powers and elect a Mayor. Regular Provinces have no power and is mostly administrative/ceremonial.
When they color a result from a Regular Province in the national map, they mean only the result in the Provincial capital (which always shares the name of the province).

As to why CHP is losing in Kirklareli? The incumbent mayor is rather unpopular, it's a local election and these things still mater.

Gotcha! So ignore the provinces and go by municipality numbers? Looks like it’ll be a decent side project for me this week to compile all the data. I’ve been unable to find a map that tallies up the combined municipal votes for the provinces in a convenient way.

Though with most of the vote in, it’s good to see the CHP winning big in the growing/heavily populated areas. A solidly pro-European Turkey would be a great thing for the Democratic world as well as for Turkey itself; especially if they can further integrate into the European economy. I think a good economy and upward mobility can nip the islamists in the arse

Some sites that may help
https://secim.aa.com.tr/
https://haberturk.com/secim/secim2024/yerel-secim
https://secim.cnnturk.com/31-mart-2024-yerel-secimleri/secim-sonuclari/
https://secim.trthaber.com/?is_external_url=true

Some clarification on the electoral system
In Metropolitan Municipalities, voters get 4 ballots
-Metropolitan Mayor
-District Mayor
-District Council
-Neighborhood Leader

In Regular Provinces, voters also get 4 ballots
-Provincial Council
-District Mayor
-District Council
-Neighborhood/Village Chief

The results of of Metropolitan Mayor elections and Provincial Council elections are combined to produce national results. However, the color used to paint Regular Provinces in national maps is the color of the party that wins in the Provincial Capital. This creates confusion and may give wrong impressions of how strong a party is in a particular place.

Metropolitan Municipalities have councils too but they are indirectly elected from election results of all district municipalities in the province.

[Logical]

It looks as though the only disappointment(s) for the opposition will be Kırklareli (in European Turkey; an opposition stronghold in national elections) where it appears the Independent mayor will be replaced by the MHP rather than the CHP by ~1% and possibly Hatay (the bit sticking into Syria) which was being defended by the CHP and was 50/50 in the Presidential election where the AKP were expected to gain easily and which is completely neck and neck with 97% reported.

I’m confused about that one too. It has the whole province market for MHP because of Kirklareli. But just to it’s south is a bigger city LÜLEBURGAZ; which has the CHP dominating and still has outstanding ballots. The province should probably be for the CHP off Lüleburgaz alone. Is the map based solely off the capitals of the provinces and disregarding the rest?

Kirklareli city has MHP with a 400 vote lead. But Lüleburgaz has CHP with a 18000 vote lead over AKP. MHP didn’t even seriously contest most of the cities in that province

Quick explanation of how Turkish local government works. There are two types of first tier local government, Metro Municipalities and Regular Provinces. Metro Municipalities have greater powers and elect a Mayor. Regular Provinces have little power and is mostly administrative/ceremonial.
When they color a result from a Regular Province in the national map, they mean only the result in the Provincial capital (which always shares the name of the province).

As to why CHP is losing in Kirklareli? The incumbent mayor is rather unpopular, it's a local election and these things still mater.

Looks like Kirklareli just swung big back to the CHP
CHP 51
AKP 23
MHP 11

That's the result for the Provincial Council of Kirklareli. Confusing I know.

[Logical]

Where can I find any information about the local electoral system?

Is there still a 10% or a 7% threshold? Are parties allowed to enter elections as coalitions in order to bypass the electoral threshold?

Where can I find the results of the council / assembly elections? I'm also interested in the distribution of seats in the new Istanbul city assembly.

There are only results of mayoral elections on this website: https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/31-mart-yerel-secim-sonuclari

No thresholds for local councils, but given the average council size is <20, there is a natural threshold of 5-7% to win a seat.
Results for Provincial Councils here : https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/meclis-secim-sonuclari
Number of seats each party wins will be determined later by the Supreme Election Council when the results are finalized.

The results of of Metropolitan Mayor elections and Provincial Council elections are combined to produce national results. ..

Here:
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/secim-sonuclari

Local/council results?
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/yerel-secim-2024/meclis-secim-sonuclari

Am I right?

Correct

[Logical]

With 99.99% boxes counted.

Metro Mayors (30)
CHP 14 (+3)
AKP 12 (-3)
DEM 3
YRP 1 (new)
MHP 0 (-1)

Provincial Capital Mayors (51)
CHP 21 (+11)
AKP 12 (-12)
MHP 8 (-2)
DEM 7 (+2)
YRP 1 (new)
IYI 1 (+1)
BBP 1 (+1)
TKP 0 (-1)
IND 0 (-1)

District Mayors (922)
AKP 356 (-179)
CHP 337 (+150)
MHP 122 (-23)
DEM 65 (+15)
YRP 39 (new)
IYI 24 (+5)
BBP 14 (+9)
SP 1 (-8)
TIP 1 (new)
SOL 1 (+1)
DEVA 1 (new)
Others 3 (-3)
IND 9 (-4)

DEM changes are in comparison with HDP

The number Mayors won doesn't tell the whole story though.


Districts where CHP mayors won make up 63.3% of Turkey's population. Just 26.1% of the population will live in AKP-MHP controlled districts. It will be a massive test for the CHP to govern these districts well and turn it into a springboard for the next general elections.

[Logical]

Where has TIP won a mayoral office?

Samandağ. Arab speaking Alawite majority area with a small Antiochene Greek minority. Demographically closer to costal Syria than Eastern Anatolia.

[Logical]

When you can't win an election..... Disqualify the other candidate after the votes are counted.
In Kurdish Van the DEM party candidate was deemed ineligible by electoral authorities but instead of holding a repeat election they declared the second place AKP candidate winner.

[Logical]

When you can't win an election..... Disqualify the other candidate after the votes are counted.
In Kurdish Van the DEM party candidate was deemed ineligible by electoral authorities but instead of holding a repeat election they declared the second place AKP candidate winner.

Decision reversed after protests and riots across Southeast Anatolia. DEM candidate declared winner.