India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[Logical]

I'm waiting for Surya worship to make a comeback.

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An Indian friend told me that this was the most boring election he has gone through. There is no overarching theme or narrative, and the energy is pretty low. Even politically engaged people are barely talking about it he says.

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Phase 5 turnout. Don't ask me to interpret this. I'm not jaichind.

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Phase 6 turnout. Down in every state. Somewhat worrying for NDA as the seats that voted in this phase heavily favor them.


Turnout change so far. Down in many core Hindi belt areas, the far South and WB. Up in Karnataka, Telangana, and tribal heavy areas like Chhattisgarh. Beyond that I can't say much.

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State by state breakdowns are coming slowly. I'll start with Axis My India since they're usually the most reliable exit pollsters.

                         NDA     INDIA     OTH
TN                    0-2       33-37       0-2
Karnataka      23-25     3-5            
Kerala              2-3       18-19               (INDIA breakdown is 17-18 INC+, 0-1 LDF)
Bihar              29-33     7-10         0-2
MP                 28-29      0-1
Jharkhand      8-10       4-6
Chhattisgarh 10-11     0-1
Rajasthan      16-19     5-7           1-2
Goa                    1           1
Gujarat           25-26     0-1
Delhi                 6-7        0-1
Haryana           6-8        2-4
Punjab             2-4        7-11         2-4  (INDIA breakdown is 7-9 INC+, 0-2 AAP)
HP                     4            0
Uttarakhand     5           0
J&K                    2           3
Ladakh              1           0
WB                  26-31    11-16               (INDIA breakdown is  AITC 11-14, INC+ 0-2)
Assam            10-12     2-4
Nagaland          0            1
Arunachal         2            0
Sikkim               1           0
Megahalaya     1             0           1
Mizoram           0             1
Pondicherry      0            1
Laccadives       0            1
Chandigarh       0            1
Andamans        1            0
Maharashtra  28-32    16-20      0-2
Telangana      11-12      4-6         0-2
Andhra            21-23       0           2-4
Odisha            18-20      0-1         0-2
Uttar Pradesh 64-67    8-12        0-1
Total             361-401 131-166  8-20

[Logical]

We need someone who collects all those politician [X] of subcaste [Y] defects to party [Z] news because I'd rather gouge my eyes out than keep track of Indian politicians.

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Axis My India exit poll for UP
NDA 46% (64-67 seats)
INDIA 39% (8-12 seats)
BSP 8%      (0-1)

Which brings us to nationalwide total of
NDA    361-401
INDIA  131-166
OTH       8-20

Total domination by NDA. I'll try to collect state breakdowns for other exit polls when I get the time.

[Logical]

Breakdown of each alliance according to Axis My India
NDA 361-40 (+29)
-BJP 322-340 (+28)
-BJP allies 39-61 (+1)

INDIA 131-166 (+55)
-INC 60-76 (+16)
-INC allies 71-90 (+39)

Only consolation for INC is that they have regained official opposition status.

[Logical]

Breakdown of each alliance according to Axis My India
NDA 361-40 (+29)
-BJP 322-340 (+28)
-BJP allies 39-61 (+1)

INDIA 131-166 (+55)
-INC 60-76 (+16)
-INC allies 71-90 (+39)

Only consolation for INC is that they have regained official opposition status.

Does official opposition in India even work like the UK/Canada in which they now have the ability to question the PM weekly

They get a government salary, an office, committee and speaking privileges I think.

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Compilation of all exit polls



If you ask me I think there is some herding going on. The states where some exit polls show major differences are West Bengal, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, and Andhra. Every other state is mostly similar, give or take a few seats.

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Axis My India Andhra Assembly exit poll



NDA 98-120 - 51% (+5)
-TDP 78-96 - 42%
-JSP 16-18 - 7%
-BJP 4-6 - 2%

YSRCP 55-77 - 44% (-6)

INC+ 0-2 - 2% (+1)

Odisha Assembly


BJP 62-80 - 42% (+10)

BJD 62-80 - 42% (-3)

INC 5-8 - 12% (-4)

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India Today

NDA 140
INDIA 85
OTH 9

Most seats reporting are form Southern states

[Logical]

India Today

NDA 200
INDIA 113
OTH 9

Gains for NDA in the East and South, losses in the Hindi belt

[Logical]

The good news for INDIA is that under these numbers NDA is on track for 320-340 seats. The bad news is that counting trends usually gets better for the winning party.

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India Today

NDA 250
INDIA 153
OTH 14

INDIA putting up a good fight in UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka.

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Seeing BJP leading in 3 seats in Kerala is quite something.

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India Today

NDA 258
INDIA 182
OTH 19

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Uttar Pradesh

NDA 40
INDIA 32
BSP 2

No one predicted this. Very shocking indeed. Rahul must kiss SP's feet.

[Logical]

The good news for INDIA is that under these numbers NDA is on track for 320-340 seats. The bad news is that counting trends usually gets better for the winning party.

Well NDA better hope that the second trend comes true again, not looking very good right now. Of course, 10 years ago they would have started the celebrations already, but they set the bar so high and promised to do it so again that it’s a narrative defeat right now.

It would be a personal defeat for Modi. Complicates his succession plans.

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India Today

NDA 273
INDIA 218
OTH 21

INDIA with 30+ seats in UP.
BJP crushing BJD in Odisha.
WB continues to be neck and neck between AITC and BJP.
INDIA narrowly leading in Maharashtra.
NDA starting to build some decent leads in Karnataka.
BJP ahead in 4 seats in the deep south.

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I said before that I believed that there was herding in the exit polls. I was right. Exit pollsters are eating the humble pie now.

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Official ECI results in Varanasi. Modi is currently behind now, one to watch for sure.
https://results.eci.gov.in/PcResultGenJune2024/candidateswise-S2477.htm

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India Today

NDA 292
INDIA 218
OTH 30

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Assembly elections

Andhra
NDA 70
YSRCP 11

Odisha
NDA 19
BJD 6
INC 1

Not everything is bad news for the BJP. They are currently on track to gain two state governments. Parties outside NDA and INDIA are suffering from the polarization.

[Logical]

Official ECI results in Varanasi. Modi is currently behind now, one to watch for sure.
https://results.eci.gov.in/PcResultGenJune2024/candidateswise-S2477.htm

Modi now slightly ahead in Varanasi.