Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Logical]

Same as Mariupol, Popasna and Volnovakha. Russia could only capture large urban areas in the Donbas by completely destroying it.

[Logical]

Very interesting window into the life of a Russian Lieutenant captured in Ukraine.

[Logical]

This academic from a marginal academic institution makes the conclusory statement that Russia will splinter into a bunch of statelets. The value of the article to me matches what I paid for it.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3483799-prepare-for-the-disappearance-of-russia/

Well, he does have a Wikipedia article that has existed since 2007: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_J._Motyl

According to the article, his parents were also Ukrainian immigrants to the U.S., so he's probably biased.

That being I said, a Russia that is splintered in several smaller republics would be preferable to me than a large Russia that is a potential threat to the world... weren't it for the possibility of a dozen unstable statelets with nuclear arms in their possession.

The ideal Russia from the Western perspective is a Goldilocks Russia. Not strong enough to threathen its neighbors but not too weak that it breaks up into several states or turns into a Chinese satellite state.

[Logical]

We're not mad! We're not owned!
https://twitter.com/xenasolo/status/1525733919274020864

[Logical]

Any recent casualty estimate?

Personal KIA estimates, based on Western intel reports and losses admitted by both combatants.

Russian Armed Forces: 15-20k
LDPR separatists: 3-5k
Wagner Group: 1-3k
Chechens: 500-1k

Total for the Russian side: 19.5-29k
Ukrainians have also taken at least 1k Russian pows that they were willing to exchange with the last defenders of Azovstal.

Ukrainian losses are harder to estimate since they manage to keep a tight lid on it. My best guess is fewer than the Russians but still significant.

Ukrainian Armed Forces: 10-20k + many more captured on the first days of the war and in Mariupol

[Logical]

A deal has been made regarding Azovstal. Details to follow.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1526264699091922946
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1526280841512509440
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1526275795701964800

[Logical]

M777 go brrrrrrr. The latest package of military aid has been announced.
https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1527359870772514835

[Logical]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

[Logical]

The number of prisoners recorded by Russia matches Ukraine's own accounts so it's probably true. The siege of Mariupol is over.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1527723981478014976

[Logical]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

One of Zelensky's advisors:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1527181698026418176

https://archive.is/i88l1
This interview with the Ukrainian intelligence chief is far more illuminating. He shares what he believes Ukraine needs to win, outlines their war goals and reveals many interesting tidbits about Russian capabilities.

[Logical]

Seems like a fair win/lose categorization map

Why is Transcarpathia like that?

[Logical]

The greatest own goal in history. Most Ukrainians see Russia positively (and would have continued to do so) until Putin invaded.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1529748507866935296

[Logical]

HIMARS on the way! This may be a gamechanger for Ukrainian offensive abilities as they would outrange all Russian MLRS systems when firing advanced MGM-140 ATACMS.
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1529939191378984988

[Logical]

Instead of sending tanks to Ukraine Scholz is posting this:

https://twitter.com/GermanyNATO/status/1530166800490680320?s=20&t=yPngl6RQgx...

Germany might have less of a gas shortage if he wasn’t huffing the supply.

It's hard to decide which one is more embarrassing between Macron calling Putin like a lovesick teenager and Scholz's self indulgent philosophical navel gazing act.

[Logical]

Also, lol:
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1531221313750179841

Sentiments like this can be both real and misleading if they're cherry-picked or otherwise unrepresentative.

Indeed. Complaining is the number 1 past time of soldiers. Just because they complain does not mean their morale is poor. When we reach the point of breaking we will start seeing large units deserting and abandoning their positions but so far we have not seen anything like that.

[Logical]

What is left of Rubizhne. It would take decades to rebuild this. Most of the population will not even return.
https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1531329598474043392

[Logical]

Important thread on the French way of thinking.
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1531289886099132416
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1531289894466863106
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1531289899025973250

[Logical]

More potent aid than HIMARS in my opinion.
https://twitter.com/MichaelStone/status/1532084932415307776

[Logical]

Zelensky's advisor claimed that Russian lost a BTG in Kherson

The media has been downplaying Ukrainian success in Kherson, while overhyping the minor Russians gains in the Donbass. It's hurting morale to make it seem like Ukraine is about to collapse.

Maybe making up for some of the exaggerations the other way, like when they said in the early days of the war there was some ukrainian babushka taking out russian drones with just pickle and tomato jars lol

it was one drone hit by one jar, and it did happen. There have been plenty of exaggerations, but that incident wasn't one of them.

You would probably believe it if you heard that some ukrainian shot down an iskander with a ak74. Meanwhile, I try to put my pro Russian biases aside when looking at how things unfold. When Mariupol was active, a lot of Russian chatter was that they were capturing nato generals, including one particular Roger Cloutier. That was utter bullsh**t obviously, yet some people still believe it and that russia and america are jointly hiding it and using body doubles etc. Also that moron Kadyrov was running his mouth in like late march talking about how we will have Mariupol wrapped up in a few days, and I was thinking lol, this gonna take weeks. He still says outlandish stuff that some very pro russian boomers believe, like we can take Poland out in 6 days next! Or the worst one yet “pfft we didn’t even want KIEV anyways bro”. Difference is, unlike a lot of pro ukrainians here, I am able to seperate out what I want vs what the reality is.  I would have loved it if Russia took Kiev, which was the aim, but it was a big fat L, and I won’t try and say otherwise.

Ah so you are a clear thinking cheerleader for rape, looting and mass murder. Splendid.

[Logical]

"Major General Roman Vladimirovich Kutuzov, nicknamed "Fog" 05/06/22 was tragically demilitarized in the village of Nikolaevka, Popasnyansky district, Luhansk region."

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1533483275058135040?s=20&t=j2FJvOT6suc...


Kutuzov was the head of the 5th CAA from October 2017 to August 2018. There's a somewhat sketchy "Hindustan News Hub" article claiming Kutuzov  "commanded the 1st army corps of the self-proclaimed DPR, and gave the order to storm one of the settlements in the Donbass, and then was forced to lead it and died from Ukrainian artillery fire.

According to [Marine Corps officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry] Ivanov, this happened in the area of ​​the Artemovsk [Bakhmut] -Lysichansk highway, a key supply artery for the Ukrainian army, defending Severodonetsk, which the Russian army has been trying to take control of for more than a week."

https://hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine-news/another-russian-general-dies-in-donbass-the-moscow-times/

Nikolaevka/Mykolaivka, Luhansk Oblast appears to be here at 48.77707, 38.33159. That is indeed close to the Bakhmut-Lsyschansk Highway and located 17 km north of Popansa, which is from where the Russians are advancing (or at least trying to do so) towards the highway.

https://tsargrad.tv/news/boj-za-donbass-kak-pogib-general-major-roman-kutuzov_560811

According to Russian sources he was the commander of DPR 1st Corps and died like a Napoleonic general, personally leading his men in an attack from the front (lol).

[Logical]

Zelensky managed to visit Lysychansk earlier today. Which means that Ukraine will fight and not retreat from the Severodonetsk salient.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1533619320093388800

[Logical]

Macron for all his neo Gaullist fantasies has sent many heavy war materiel including a third of CAESAR spgs France operates. He is serious about wanting Ukraine to win despite the ridiculous amount of calls to Putin. Scholz on the other hand is all hot air. None of the Gepard or PzH 2000 Germany has promised since March has arrived yet.

[Logical]

I love how CAESAR's user interface is straight out of an early 2000s strategy game.

[Logical]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-intelligence-russia-kyiv-military-b2096715.html

"Ukraine forces outgunned up to 40 to one by Russian forces, intelligence report reveals"

Not sure all the stuff/numbers being said in the report are true but this is another example of the Western media trying to prepare their population for likely future positive news for Russia's military advances.

Quite apart from the use of the classic weasel words "up to", if Russia had anything like that sort of numerical advantage they would be making sweeping advances rather than slow incremental gains?

Even incompetence has its limits given a supremacy of such an order of magnitude.

It is certainly true that given the hype of the Russian armed forces their ability to plan and execute large-scale advances seems far below par.  Their recent limited success is more of a success of massive artillery bombardment much like WWI Western front battles.  

Of course, things I think one has to keep in mind should be
a) Russian military doctrine has always been about the destruction of the enemy forces versus capturing territory.  Their current strategy could be more about their self-assessment that they are less likely to destroy the professional core of the Ukraine forces if they break the front and they fall back versus keeping the front static and luring the professional core to move to the front where they can be taken out slowly with brute mass artillery
b) Russian control of the air PLUS Western allies feeding up-to-date intelligence to Ukraine just make large-scale offensive hard for both sides.  Any large concentration of Russian forces for a large-scale offensive can be detected by the West and fed to Ukraine where counter-measures can be taken.  Likewise, Russian control of the air also means they can attack a large concentration of Ukrainian forces in the open who are getting ready for the offensive.

It seems these factors are producing a protracted grind attritional war and it comes down to which sides runs out of trained troops, equipment or political will.

Remarkable how much more this conflict resembles WWI than WWII.

Basic military theory states that you need Mass AND Firepower in order to facilitate the large scale maneuver warfare of WWII. Neither side has this. Ukraine has Mass but not Firepower, Russia has Firepower but not the Mass to exploit breakthroughs. So you end up with attrional warfare and small scale attacks as both sides try to whittle down and exhaust the other to in order to advance on limited sections of the front.

[Logical]

These numbers came from the DNR 1st Army Corps only. This does not include LNR casualties and volunteer/militia units. According to official data the DNR has a total of 20k professionals in their pre war army. So they have lost at least half of their experienced forces in just 3 months of war. This matches what Russian mil bloggers and Girkin have been saying, that the separatist armies are spent as a fighting force, only conscripts and alcoholics are left in their "army".
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1535374429504405504