Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[Logical]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20211029-2NFQVGSQTBJARLLFO4C7ZGGYBE/
Sankei/FNN did a follow up poll on 100 constituencies of which ~60 are considered tossups. They found that LDP are now comfortably ahead in 4, CDP in 17 with the rest remaining close. Unfortunately I am unable to find a non paywall version so no details on the seat breakdown.

[Logical]

Other livestreams. Regional TV networks usually does their own exit polls and breaks it down in detail.

National
TBS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nS484Odd4w
NTV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnNSlaDVPQM
FNN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHx6Hbp4T6c
ANN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coYw-eVU0Ks

Regional
Hokkaido: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxKJIPfPzu0
Yamagata: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5XIFAdPBTQ
Fukushima: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB8yiP59wvg
Niigata: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_H90ohXSidQ
Kansai: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bPJ2X1M_0s
Osaka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5PIA8oPXlE
Tottori/Shimane: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lCgR_-Uhec
Okayama: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7boYo-HcDM
Hiroshima: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44kcVhaG5yU
Ehime: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eqOG0b3yOk
Kochi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivTS3SQ6s2M
Fukuoka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7e_8KjLuack
Saga: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzU8YcxVY-c
Nagasaki: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vWV6apcNmQ
Miyazaki: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_KTIRWUE3w
Kagoshima: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hlOz9tl8Pg

[Logical]

are the authorities sleeping or something? are we gonna get a turnout update?

Go to the prefectural websites for the latest hour by hour turnout. E.g.
Hokkaido: https://www.pref.hokkaido.lg.jp/hs/82601.html
Tokyo: http://sokuho.r3syuugiinsen.metro.tokyo.jp/sokuho/
Kanagawa: https://www.pref.kanagawa.jp/sys/senkan/sokuhou/shusho_t.html
Shizuoka: https://www.pref.shizuoka.jp/senkan/shugiin2021/result_vote.html
Osaka: http://www2.senkyo.pref.osaka.jp/sokuho/syu/fumin/toushusen.html

[Logical]

Turnout so far

           2014     2017     2021
Early   12.65    20.15    19.49    
10 00   5.68      7.15      6.32
11 00  11.08    12.24    11.32
14 00  22.66    21.83    21.49
16 00  29.11    26.30    
18 00  34.98    29.99
19 30  37.72    31.82

Final    52.65    53.68    
    
As jaichind said, an incoming typhoon pushed people to vote earlier in the day. Don't expect turnout to peter out the way it did in 2017.

[Logical]

As of 18 00 e-day turnout in Osaka is 34.12%. When you add early votes to it, 17.65%, then it is already 3 points higher than total turnout in 2017 which was 48.39%.

[Logical]

Final update on Osaka, as of 19 00 total turnout is now almost 6% higher than 2017. Turnout will probably reach ~56% here

[Logical]

Updated chart

           2014     2017     2021
Early   12.65    20.15    19.49    
10 00   5.68      7.15      6.32
11 00  11.08    12.24    11.32
14 00  22.66    21.83    21.49
16 00  29.11    26.30    26.78
18 00  34.98    29.99    31.64
19 30  37.72    31.82

Final    52.65    53.68    

[Logical]

The turnout pattern is clear:

a) Rural down, urban up
b) Kinki up, North down

Shikoku and southern Kyushu is also up. Must be the typhoon effect.

[Logical]

Exit poll has LDP sec gen Amari behind and bigwig Ishihara immediately defeated lol.

[Logical]

Various exits

NNN

LDP 238
KP 31
CDP 114
JCP 10
DPP 12
JRP 45
RS 2
SDP 1
Independents 12

FNN

LDP 230
KP 31
CDP 130
JCP 14
JRP 39
DPP 7
RS 1
SDP 1
Independents 12

TBS

LDP 239
KP 30
CDP 115
JRP 40
DPP 13
JCP 12
RS 3
SDP 1
Independents 12

[Logical]

uhh, ISHIN in the lead in Tokyo 12?

I have no idea what to make of this. Would be the shock of the election surely.

[Logical]

JRP has a good chance of winning a district seat outside Osaka, most likely in Hyogo. There are 4 seats there where they are ahead on exits or just behind.

[Logical]

From the interviews, no one but the JRP sounds pleased.

[Logical]

Woah, NHK calls it against Ozawa. RIP to the puppet master. End of an era. The margin is narrow enough that he'll make it back on a PR slot, but he will never regain the backroom influence he had.

[Logical]

Former DPJ leader Kaeda Banri loses in Tokyo 1st. CDP are generally doing worse than the exit polls in Tokyo.

[Logical]

NHK updated projection has LDP winning 234-253 seats.

[Logical]

Amari loses! First time a secretary general of the LDP is defeated in their constituency.

[Logical]

Oh boy, this is looking increasingly awful.

Ichirō Ozawa losing after fifty two years counts as a silver lining even if it's an LDP gain. Wicked, evil man.

Lots of dirty old bastards got stomped this election, both from the LDP and opposition. It does feel like a "generational change" election more than a "punish LDP" one.

[Logical]

Good ol Naoto Kan has won for a 15th time, beating back a concerted LDP effort to defeat him.

[Logical]

CDP got very lucky in Niigata.

Niigata 4th
CDP 50.1
LDP 49.9

Niigata 6th
CDP 49.8
LDP 49.3

 

[Logical]

It's frankly amazing how the 2 CDP incumbents in Saga manages to win again in a very rural and LDP leaning prefecture.

[Logical]

Outside Kansai, LDP is matching or exceeding Koizumi 05 levels in PR vote. Completely unexpected.

[Logical]

There is a Chinese saying 人怕出名豬怕壯 or "People fear getting famous, pigs fear getting fat".  This seems to be the case for the new LDP General Secretary 甘利明(Amari Akira). 

He was involved in a bribery scandal in 2016 which resulted in him having to resign from the cabinet. By 2017 this was forgotten and he was able to win his 神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th district with ease.  He was and is close to both Abe and Suga and Kishida decided to make him LDP General Secretary to curry favor with both Abe and Suga.   But doing so merely made his bribery scandal back in 2016 show up on the national media again and seems to have impacted his standing in his district.  With recent polling showing his lead dropping to a level to make his seat competitive he is canceling all campaign events for other candidates and rushing to campaign in his district.

Most likely he will still win but here is an example of him becoming a national figure actually hurting his campaign.

This proved prophetic.

甘利明(Amari Akira) has resigned as LDP Secretary General.  It was expected that he would resign because LDP would lose a bunch of seats but he will win his.  It ended up being the other way around and he still had to resign.

Does he have any hope to return to office of significance over the course of the next few years? Or is he now in purgatory?

He's 72. Most likely he'll retire next election or the one after.

[Logical]

岐阜(Gifu) 5th is also interesting but most likely not competitive in the end.  

The reason it is interesting is the CDP is running a 25-year-old woman 今井るる(Imai Ruru)
as its candidate.  It seems that out of college she has no real political experience other than being a community activist.  


In 2017 this district was

LDP    54.1
HP     34.0  (DPJ background)
JCP    11.9

It is fairly rural so it is really not a good fit for someone without deep roots in the district.  Worst both the JCP and JRP are also in the race.  In theory, the PR vote in this district is fairly positive for CDP so she does have some basis to build her vote.  Recently some poll has her closing in on the LDP incumbent but most likely he will win by a good margin.

Still, it is interesting to see the CDP try out a candidate that young.  Most likely they are playing the long game.  Given the lean of the district if she can perhaps win on the PR slate she can slowly build roots in the district and finally dethrone the LDP a couple of election cycles from now.  She has the time.

The result was

LDP 48.5
CDP 40.5
JRP  5.9
JCP  5.2

She did very well considering the circumstances. If she runs again in the next election she could even win outright or make it close enough to get in proportionally (had CDP not performed awfully in Aichi she would've made it in this time). A talent to watch for.

[Logical]

Edano refuses to step down as CDP leader.   This is not a good look for him or CDP.  

is there any talent left to lead the party or are they, like most LDP leaders, a charisma black hole

The name I see being floated by CDP supporters is Ogawa Junya. Young, energetic and defeated an LDP incumbent in this election. The only problem I see is that he represents a small prefecture in Shikoku so any home region bump he gets is minimal.

To be honest I think CDP should get a female leader to stand out and attract the women vote but there is no one both tenured and charismatic enough. Renho's had her chance in 2017 and she blew it bad.