UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[EastAnglianLefty]

Without meaning to suggest that Preston is the eighth wonder of the world, train stations and their environs are famously poor indicators of the wealth of a town.

[EastAnglianLefty]

By-election imminent in Lagan Valley?

Probably not. You can continue to serve as an MP whilst charged with a criminal offence and the seat is only considered to be vacated if a sentence of more than 12 months imprisonment is passed. In practice, if the case proceeds to trial there is no way it will be held before the end of the year.

So the only reasons to resign would be if Donaldson chose to or if the DUP pressured him to do so. I do not think a by-election which would probably focus on the reasons for the resignation would be somethingthe DUP would look forward to, so they're probably not going to pressure him to do so.

However, given the likelihood that criminal proceedings will be in preparation at the next general election, it's probable that the DUP will select a new candidate for the seat.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Harwood is also young and transphobia has much less purchase amongst younger generations, for whom young people transitioning isn't a "the children are wrong" issue but a thing that affects some members of their generation.

[EastAnglianLefty]

What would have been the mechanism for the SNP membership to vote? They didn't have a vote on the initial agreement and Yousaf was opposed to them having a vote now.

If the Green membership had rejected the agreement that would certainly have hurt Yousaf, but I'm not convinced that publicly burning his bridges with the Greens having just been defending them is a better option, particularly as it makes him look dependent on the right of his party. He had a difficult hand but this looks like a poor way to play it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

A lot of the Green anger is clearly towards Yousaf specifically - otherwise it seems unlikely there would have been an unanimous decision to vote No Confidence (assuming this is true.) It's possible another SNP leader could convince them to think again, but there would probably have to be a policy concession to sweeten the deal.

And I presume that in the interim the new leader would have to be Keith Brown as Depute Leader. Whether he would want to do that long-term, if he'd face a leadership challenge and how SNP members would break in that hypothetical contest are all different questions.

I'd add that even if Yousaf does survive this, the SNP constitution appears to allow for annual elections. I would assume that this whole affair has damaged his credibility enough that somebody (Forbes?) will try to take a run at him over the summer.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Albeit that that is somewhat dependent on the result of the next Westminster election and which SNP parliamentarians find themselves on the hunt for a seat. Most of the SNP talent is at Holyrood, but there are a couple of Westminster figures who would presumably do respectably in a leadership contest and some of them are in seats that are at least somewhat vulnerable.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Regan has announced she'll be voting against the VoNC in the government as a whole. Not a massive surprise, but makes a snap election less likely.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Ordinarily that sort of briefing would mean that the Conservative Whips Office is either a) feeling paranoid and has decided to spook any would-be jumper into getting cold feet or that b) it has been yelled at by a paranoid No. 10 and is therefore doing the same as a) in order to stop the shouting. I say 'ordinarily' as they've really not been good at even the basics of their jobs for quite a while now.

There is of course the alternative possibility, that their own MPs respect the whips so little that they're threatening to defect just to mess with them.

[EastAnglianLefty]

In the unlikely event it is a defection, there's every chance it's not even an Essex-based MP and that that's just a piece of misdirection.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Labour are telling journalists not to expect a defection, FWIW.

[EastAnglianLefty]

May has also confirmed she's definitely not defecting.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Providing jobs and supporting regional economies being, of course, entirely socially useless things.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Higher education, although a lot of the things the government are most negative about (eg foundation years) are functionally a bit of both.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The committee has two Tories, two SNP and a Labour chair. On the one hand, one of the Tories had commented on Matheson's case before it came up, which is a conflict of interest (and incidentally, she has previously been suspended.) On the other hand, the SNP members seem to have voted against any sanction, so the chair gave as his reason for voting in favour that there needed to be at least some sanction.

In conclusion, it's a mess but what Swinney is doing makes no political sense.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Is Greater Manchester Police also going to be affected by purdah?