2022 French legislatives (user search)
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June 15, 2024, 08:27:16 AM
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EastAnglianLefty
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« on: April 29, 2022, 09:27:32 AM »

It’s not gonna happen but it would be great if it did.


Would be great, but this likely still produces a LREM+ majority or plurality in the end. Left and Far Right vote is comparatively concentrated, LREM vote dispersed. So the vast, vast majority of contests end up as LREM vs FN or LREM vs Left front, and LREM+ wins enough of those engagements through enough local voter consolidation of the opposing side of the spectrum to become the largest group by far. Which is one large reason why the Harris poll has 24% LREM vote equaling a majority of seats. Hell, the finding are essentially the same as the Harris poll's hypothetical percentages, just with LR+ separated from LREM+.

Now "Left-aligned" consolidation is still valuable. It informs voters to not stay home or vote for a different candidate if their chosen factional leftist party did not advance. It expands the playing field notably, based off round 1 data. Finally, you are just going to see a lot more socialists in runoffs with LREM, rather than LR and FN.

For there to be a rejection of History and LREM+ to not get a majority or a near-majority, there would need to be a reversal of the traditional turnout variables that favor the presidential party, something we have no evidence yet to suggest will happen.

Do we have any idea how the FN vote is likely to go in Left/LREM contests?
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