Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/russian-troops-kill-up-to-80-polish-fighters-in-ukraine-moscow/articleshow/92455028.cms

"Russian troops kill 'up to 80' Polish fighters in Ukraine: Moscow"

Russia MoD claims to have killed up to 80 Polish mercenaries as part of a missile strike.  My impression is that the Polish form the biggest contingent of mercenaries on the Ukraine side.

Could you please not use the term "mercenaries" about international volunteers, there is an international definition of what a mercenary is and paid foreign volunteers in a regular army aren't included (if they were the Gurkhas in the British army would also be mercenaries, which would be ridiculous).

Jaichind only understands things in terms of individual pecuniary game, so the concept of anyone putting their lives on the line for things like Freedom, defending against imperialism, Etc is alien to him.

This is untrue. He understands the idea of freedom and of resisting imperialism. It's just that he's pro-imperialism and anti-freedom.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

Oh. If they begin the WW3, we will end it, believe me! Russia will not only lose its identity, it would be as if Russia never existed at all.

I think that Russia, China, Iran, and the other Axis of Resistance members combined could easily defeat the US and NATO in a hypothetical World War 3. Such a war would probably last about 3 months at the most. Human wave attacks (Iran), irregular warfare techniques (Russia and the Axis of Resistance members), and very large numbers of military troops (China and Iran) can take down even the most technologically advanced military forces.

This would have been a dumb take six months ago. At this point it's gone right round and is practically art.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/sep/06/liz-truss-expected-to-freeze-uk-energy-bills-at-2500-a-year

One European country after another announcing full freezes on Energy prices (for at least this winter and in some already admitting until mid 2024). France already has one in place, Germany and Austria have now also said this, and the UK's new Prime Minister Liz Truss will announce the same tomorrow. Hard to see how public pressures won't now result in a domino effect in all of Europe here.

This is not really a good idea at all because it will end, or at least drastically reduce the incentive to save energy (depending on how the freeze is implemented). There should be more targeted support payments to more vulnerable households, instead of artificially cheapening a already scarce resource for everyone. However it is clear that the public pressure is now so intensive that in a democratic system there is no alternative. But if European countries don't reduce energy consumption significantly, there will be a essentially a very bad circular loop where the prices on the spot market this winter will balloon to astronomical levels, and Governments have pour more and more money (debt) in to subsidise the energy and keep the cap in place.

The consequences of this could be: In Germany only small businesses and private households are planned to be price capped, not industry. The result will be industry paying massively inflated prices at which point many will no longer be able to produce. The economic consequences of that would be horrific, so it is likely that the German Government would then have to impose energy rationing.

But Germany is not even on the worst end here: The UK, which doesn't have meaningful manufacturing, but whose economy instead relies on foreign capital inflows is possibly in even worse situation. Why? UK will be even more exposed to market conditions this winter as it has almost no storage (Germany has iirc somewhere like enough storage for 60 days, while UK has for about 4 Days), and as such will have to take even more debt to fund its price freeze. UK already has a big current account deficit and unusually large foreign outflows. Deutsche Bank has warned that the UK is increasingly at risk of no longer attracting enough foreign capital to fund the external balance, which would result in a very stark depreciation of GBP, and a emerging-market style currency crisis. Without manufacturing, exports won't be helped by this, only imports will become much more expensive, drastically reducing living standards. To be clear this is the worst case szenario, but it is definitely realistic. Europe really needs leaders with nerves of steel right now.

This is complete nonsense. Prices in the UK are being capped at around 3 times as high as they were last year (and they're historically higher here than in the US.) That is more than high enough to encourage cuts in energy use (and the bulk of energy use is on heating, which you can only cut so far before it causes other problems.)

You could let prices go higher, but they no longer provide a useful price signal - if you cannot afford to pay three times as much as last year, you cannot afford to pay five times as much, so it does not provide any additional information. Meanwhile the signal that energy is incredibly expensive and you should use less of it remains really clear - they are not being capped at a peppercorn rent.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Rumours of Ukrainian forces in Oskil. Unconfirmed at present, but if it's true then Oskil is completely cut off.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Northern Luhansk also lacks large settlements, and if Ukraine advances into it then its forces there would be flanked on three sides. So it's not likely to see many Russian troops stationed there, but equally it's unlikely to be a priority for future offensives.

[EastAnglianLefty]

But what I don't get is...

How did Prigozhin, with a ragtag group of cons, manage to do this to a group of well-trained, motivated & NATO-equipped professional soldiers?

Wagner has a lot of cannon fodder, but it also has a core of experienced mercenary forces who are at least as experienced as anybody the Ukrainians have under arms.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Regardless of who did it (and all the signs point to Russia), it's an odd move at this point. Ukraine shaping operations have done concentrated in Donetsk region, and whilst that might be a misdirection, we can be reasonably certain that an amphibious assault across the Dnieper was not going to be the next act, because that's almost impossible to disguise and incredibly difficult to carry out if it's competently opposed.

I could see the military value to Russia in doing it to cover a retreat if they were retreating entirely from the Kherson region, but I don't see why that would be necessary unless you thought the Ukrainians would be in Melitopol within a week. Maybe that is the ultimate objective of the coming offensive, but even if it is the operation to accomplish that hasn't even begun yet.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Woody, freeing whomever if that was what precipitated Putin, is a splendid idea if the US navy shows up in the Black Sea for convoy support. Be patient.

In other news:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/world/europe/mi6-moore-putin-wagner.html

Despite some assertions to the contrary in this thread, the head of UK intelligence thinks that the West has more staying power than Russia does in waging the Ukraine War. Fancy that. I must say, a surname of Cleverly is simply splendid for a spy chief.

Russia ultimately withdrew from Afghanistan because internal Russian pressure became insurmountable, Mr. Cleverly said, referring a decade-long conflict that ended in 1989. “And we are seeing some of the evidence that a similar thing is happening,” he added.

Mr. Cleverly said the rebellion underscored the falsity of Mr. Putin’s assertions that Russia would be more committed to a long war in Ukraine than the West would be. “It proved the lie that underpins Putin’s strategic rationale,” he said.

‘“What Prigozhin said out loud is what we all instinctively knew: This was an entirely unjustified and uncalled-for invasion,” he added. “This was driven by the ego and ambition of Vladimir Putin. There was never any risk or threat to the Russian homeland or the Russian people.”

Cleverly isn't an intelligence officer, he's the Foreign Secretary.

[EastAnglianLefty]

2)Ukraine is inflicting more losses on Russia during this counterattack despite the fact in warfare the defender is meant to enjoy favorable casualty ratio’s especially as a dug in one

And what is your source for this?

Mainly people like Oryx, Andrew Perpetua, and warspotting
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1688783615394516992?s=12

Well, those are all heavily pro Ukrainian sources. It makes no sense in reality that Ukraine is gaining so little if that is even remotely true.

All three of those sources are beyond fair in their analysis despite their sympathies. Also it totally makes sense as the reason for the slow progress is Russia heavily mined everything in the area so Ukraine is deliberately going slow to avoid heavy casualties

All those videos of lost Leopards and Bradleys at once in the early days of offensive are not suggesting they are taking it slow on purpose. I mean they lost like 15 vehicles in one assault, that's not taking it slow to avoid casualties. Also, we could argue about Oryx, but Perpetua is a clear hack.

That assault is the reason they started taking it slow. There doesn't seem to be much evidence for equivalently heavy losses in recent weeks.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I don't think anybody has claimed that the counter-offensive is as it stands is a major success. The debate is about whether it is a disaster that is about to culminate, or if it's still capable of continuing for a longer period and that there are enough signs to be optimistic that it might bear dividends in future.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://twitter.com/colbybadhwar/status/1692335708311089394?s=12
If one anonymous official is judging the counterattack as “anything short of Melitopol before summer end is a failure” then it looks like they didn’t learn lessons after “Kyiv will fall in 3 days”

Melitopol falling would mean that the land bridge to Crimea would be cut, which would be a pretty decisive victory.

That seems unlikely unless there's a major breakthrough and widespread crumbling along the front.

Dialling it back to things that seem more plausible as things stand now (if not exactly imminent), what would be the impact in terms of Russian logistics of Ukraine gaining Tokmak or cutting the roads there?

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/daenemark-niederlande-kampfjet-f-16-lieferung-krieg-russland-ukraine-100.html

"What the F-16 jets mean for Ukraine"

ZDF argues that F-16 will help but Russian air superiority will remain and F-16 should not be viewed as a game changer.

What Russian air superiority? We've known since about a month into the war that the Russian air force is barely functional.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I get the optics but of not having elections but how in gods name can the West be legitimately pressuring for them when Russia’s deliberately firing missiles at civilian targets? Polling centers would be nothing but giant bull-eyes and an all mail-in ballot election in these circumstances would be a logistical nightmare

Is it "the West" pressuring them or the Americans? Certainly there's no pressure on this front from Britain, which didn't hold general elections in either WW1 or WW2 and none of the Dominions that held elections during that period had their own territory directly threatened by war. We don't have the precedent of 1864.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Unlike the aftermath of the fall of Raqqa or Kabul, I do expect there to be a nasty insurgency in Ukraine should Russia take over its entire territory from public support and more intense foreign backing. There's nothing stopping any Ukrainian from instigating a massive uprising which will bring some territory back to it.

I am certain that a Russian victory at its best means a rump Ukrainian state based to the west of Kiev, not a total end to Ukraine.

Russia isn't going to take over Ukraine's entire territory. The Ukrainian offensive this year has not gone as well as was hoped, but Russians attempts to counter-attack have made no significant progress and have never at any point looked likely to break through Ukrainian lines.

Stalemate is a plausible outcome; large-scale Russian advances as things stand are not.