It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?
I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).
Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.
I'll respond without making any solid projections, as that might be unwise:
South West is an odd one - it might be expected to vote Lib Dem but there is no real Lib Dem support in Hounslow, so Labour could definitely give the appearance of playing spoiler in the Assembly constituency. In the mayoral race I suspect it stays Tory - not sure Sadiq Khan could emulate Ken Livingstone there.
West Central probably voted Labour at the last two GEs given the strength of the Labour vote in Hammersmith/weakening of the Tory vote elsewhere, so a gain in the Assembly is entirely possible. I'd say it's the likeliest one on paper, but not certain.
Most of the UKIP vote in Havering and Redbridge will have come from the Tories in Havering (which includes Rainham) - maybe there is some data to that end. The Labour bits are very Remainy (Ilford, Wanstead etc.), so I imagine the location of the UKIP vote means they'll break enough in the Tories direction even with Khan's victory.
Croydon and Sutton which you didn't mention may have been close at the last general election but the Tories are strong enough there and I don't think enough Sutton Lib Dems would vote Khan/Labour to flip the seat at either level.
The other assembly constituencies are all safe for their respective parties and they won't flip.
Why did Ken Livingstone do so well in Richmond in 2004? It voted very heavily for Goldsmith (though he was from there) and Boris. There has been much less coverage of the race this time; I'm not sure how that'll affect the race. West & Central is very Tory at the London level - not so much at the national, even in 2015 IIRC. I'm wondering whether Tony Devenish will win here - do you know much about him? I'm not sure whether to support him.
It's no longer that Tory at the local level - the Tories were very slightly ahead in raw votes in Westminster and K&C in 2018, but the Labour advantage in Hammersmith comfortably outweighed that.
