2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also, the LD path back to relevance has two steps:

1. Win enough seats to hold the balance of power in a hung Parliament;
2. Play their cards well enough to get credit for keeping their coalition partner in check.

If they're only seeking to win about 20 seats, the window in which 1 is even possible as a strategy is incredibly narrow, especially since in those circumstances you can always promise to built a new relief road in County Antrim instead to win over the DUP.

And to demand PR at all costs to enter coalition, which would probably be easy enough to get Labour to do.

I take it you're too young to remember how things went down in 2011?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also, the LD path back to relevance has two steps:

1. Win enough seats to hold the balance of power in a hung Parliament;
2. Play their cards well enough to get credit for keeping their coalition partner in check.

If they're only seeking to win about 20 seats, the window in which 1 is even possible as a strategy is incredibly narrow, especially since in those circumstances you can always promise to built a new relief road in County Antrim instead to win over the DUP.

And to demand PR at all costs to enter coalition, which would probably be easy enough to get Labour to do.

I take it you're too young to remember how things went down in 2011?

This is partly what I’m referring to. Clegg should have demanded at the very least actual PR, not settled for AV (which would have produced a less proportional result than FPTP at the election), and really the next time the party is in coalition, they ought to make it a condition of the coalition to adopt PR without a referendum.

I think if they want to take that negotiating strategy, they should probably make sure they have enough money left for a second election that year. There's a substantial chunk of Labour that opposes PR on general principles, another chunk that reacts poorly to the Lib Dems making ultimatums, and a third chunk whose openness to PR drops rapidly the closer they get to forming a government.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's theoretically possible that Labour might agree to some change to the electoral system in return for a coalition with the Lib Dems. There's absolutely no chance that would involve a national list, or regions anywhere near as large as those used for European elections.

Realistically, most changes besides STV for local elections would require a referendum (as 2011 is a precedent, as are the devolution referendums from some standpoints.) Sticking it in the LD manifesto wouldn't change that, because they'd be the junior partner and if it wasn't in Labour's manifesto too you couldn't say people had already voted for it. And that means you'd have to win the referendum, which means it would have to be something that Labour could be convinced to campaign for (because people don't care about electoral systems and otherwise it'd become a referendum on the Lib Dems, which is only ever going to have one outcome). Which would require the maintenance of something resembling a constituency link - it is a point of principle for a surprisingly high number of people in Labour.

I'm also somewhat sceptical that the Lib Dems would actually try to make it a red line, because again, most people do not care about electoral systems. Lib Dem activists do, but if you made it a red line then you would have to concede to Labour priorities on other issues and if you think those would be popular in Wokingham et al. then I have a bridge to sell you.