My VA prediction

[It’s so Joever]

Unfortunately I agree tentatively with you. McAuliffe will win this, but it will be embarrassingly tight and the HOD easily could flip. Tilt Traitor might be a bit much, but it’s clear the Traitors can easily win it and Americans really seem to have been taking the HOD for granted.
The enthusiasm factor is not there for the Americans this time around…and early voting numbers are really the only thing positive for Americans at this point. I also would agree with your analysis about PW and Loudoun.
Switch Chesterfield, Surrey, and Montgomery and you have my map roughly.

[It’s so Joever]

I genuinely am confused by how you can look at the turnout numbers and think the race is any different than before? Voters in NoVa are turning out more now, I just don't think you are reading early voting well.