VA Early Voting #s

[It’s so Joever]

Continues to be dominated by the 3 Dem NOVA districts (mail-in votes) and the 3 exurban college+ R districts that extend north of Richmond (VA-06, VA-01, and VA-07, the latter of which barely flipped to Biden in 2020).

Hampton Roads is really lagging, including the VRA district and the swing district.  The coal country 70% Trump district, VA-09, is the lowest of all, but IMO there is every reason to assume almost every voter there is waiting for day of.

So business as usual.

[It’s so Joever]

Numbers seem sluggish. Alarm bells should be going off for Democrats.

Compared to what?

[It’s so Joever]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

[It’s so Joever]

Additional early voting sites opened in Fairfax today.  I will be driving by one of them when I grab lunch.  I am curious to see how long the line is.  It's early in a weekday so probably not too long. 

Keep us updated on anecdotal evidence!

I'm curious about what you saw.

Oh my gosh thanks for reminding me.
Yeah I wasn’t in Virginia long, but I saw two Youngkin signs in New Hanover from the train and I saw two McAuliffe signs in Henrico.
Given it took more time to find the McAuliffe signs, it does appear Republicans have an enthusiasm edge. However, the rich white Henrico suburbs (where I was) have not shown evidence of reverting. I probably will take a few trips to NoVa on the metro right before the election.

[It’s so Joever]

Where is Matty?

[It’s so Joever]

There is no reason that we shouldn’t be winning this race by double-digits.  Trying to pretend it was never going to be a blowout is just sticking your head in the sand.  Denial won’t change the fact that the current political environment is absolutely horrible for the Democrats.

It’s hopeless, the Republican dictatorship followed by a civil war timeline is coming at this point.

[It’s so Joever]

7 days before polls close: "If TMac doesn't win by 10%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

10 seconds before polls close: "Actually, if TMac doesn't win by 20%, Democrats are doomed for next year!"

TMac projected to win Virginia by 15%: "Welp, Democrats are in trouble"

When will you acknowledge reality?

[It’s so Joever]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

Sure, but there is no proof that Youngkin is actually doing this. Nor is there proof that Ds are cannibalizing their vote any more than Rs are, since more Rs than usual are also early voting.

Eh, I think there's a good chance that NoVA 2021 is Miami-Dade 2020.

Why?

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

[It’s so Joever]

In all seriousness this rain is annoying. Some of us had Halloween plans, and by some of us, I don’t mean me (but I would prefer sun anyways)

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

Countywide will work downstate but not for NOVA.  There are drastically different parts of Loudoun and Fairfax.  So knowing where the vote is coming from is key.  There are suburban areas like Great Falls and Vienna that could be pretty even.  Whereas there are downtown areas of Reston and McLean that are pretty much all condo skyscrapers and will go to T-Mac by extremely wide margins.

Similar for Loudoun.  The inner and city parts have big condo complexes.  But there are a lot literal farmlands near the WV border.

Yes but looking at the Independent cities in NoVa can give a bit of an idea.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

Countywide will work downstate but not for NOVA.  There are drastically different parts of Loudoun and Fairfax.  So knowing where the vote is coming from is key.  There are suburban areas like Great Falls and Vienna that could be pretty even.  Whereas there are downtown areas of Reston and McLean that are pretty much all condo skyscrapers and will go to T-Mac by extremely wide margins.

Similar for Loudoun.  The inner and city parts have big condo complexes.  But there are a lot literal farmlands near the WV border.

Yes but looking at the Independent cities in NoVa can give a bit of an idea.

Well we know those will go for Terry by a wide margin.  If there is any drop off it's going to be in the wealthy suburban areas (Great Falls, Vienna, parts of McLean, Ashburn, etc.).

I’m sorry I have to disagree with you there. I think the drops would be in the margins in working class neighborhoods.

[It’s so Joever]

Loudoun has already surpassed 40% of its total 2017 vote.  Somewhat a product of its rapid population growth.

Maybe... or maybe Loudoun County voters are particularly motivated this year for some reason.

Honestly doesn’t look like it.
It seems only slightly higher than other NoVa counties in terms of 2017 mail ins and that makes sense honestly given population growth and the fact that Fairfax is a day behind. In fact, it’s behind other cities (although those are smaller but still)

[It’s so Joever]

While I have been bullish on TMAC’s chances relative to most, that will change if NoVa doesn’t start catching up relative to Central VA. I know there have been delays and the gaps are closing, but time is running out. Today and tomorrow are crucial.
Good news, rain is gone for now in NoVa.

[It’s so Joever]

While I have been bullish on TMAC’s chances relative to most, that will change if NoVa doesn’t start catching up relative to Central VA. I know there have been delays and the gaps are closing, but time is running out. Today and tomorrow are crucial.
Good news, rain is gone for now in NoVa.

NOVA will be fine.  It always turns out.  Please don't buy the nonsense from the habitually wrong post-deleting blue avatar from Montana who didn't even know Arlington and Fairfax were two different things.  I am going to pass by an early voting site today.  I will let you know if there is turnout. 

I am looking at the numbers themselves from VPAP, I don’t treat any Atlas poster as gospel. The big three NoVa counties all should be relatively higher by the end of early voting compared to the rurals. In terms of % 2020 turnout, they should at least be on par with the rurals. They are increasing quickly so there is time.

[It’s so Joever]

Not enough, Fairfax needs to hit 40% of its 2020 early vote at least like many central VA rurals.

[It’s so Joever]

To answer the questions I have received, a large number of counties have hit 40% of their early 2020 votes and two have hit 50% (Powhatan and Matthews) I didn’t get all the counties because yamps f**king reset my map even though I literally changed tabs for like one SECOND wo I gave up and did something else.

[It’s so Joever]

To answer the questions I have received, a large number of counties have hit 40% of their early 2020 votes and two have hit 50% (Powhatan and Matthews) I didn’t get all the counties because yamps f**king reset my map even though I literally changed tabs for like one SECOND wo I gave up and did something else.

I think comparing to total vote in 2017 (or even 2020) is more informative than comparing to early vote in 2020.  We know Republican counties did not tend to vote early in 2020 (because Trump was stupid about that) so it's a lot easier for GOP counties to over perform when few people voted early last time.

No offense, but this seems like a coping point. And comparing to 2017 BEFORE there was a difference in voting early vs on Election Day is ridiculous.

[It’s so Joever]

Right now, the counties with the most early voting per 1,000 registered voters are Falls Church (Biden +64) and James City (Biden +5)

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1454883987286020101

Fair to say that James City could be a bellwether for the state?

It will vote to the right of the state.