What do we think about this race? Does it have potential to be closer than expected? Predictions?
As a Philadelphia resident and former Krasner supporter, I was in favor of his criminal justice reform policies like advocating for the abolition of the death penalty, reducing cash bail, focus on rehabilitation, etc. but as of late, there has been very little deterrence and no fear of harsh penalties. However, as of late, the city is headed in the wrong direction IMO.
I believe this has led to the increased violent crime we are seeing in Philadelphia. Things have gotten so bad that it has been the worst year for violent crime in Philadelphia since 1990. Vega, a Democrat, has police organization endorsements. Vega also seems to be exploiting the fact that Krasner's policies have failed the inner city. If DAs in major cities do not enforce the laws and pursue harsher sentences, there is more of a reason to believe that crime will continue to skyrocket.
Vega will do well with Hispanics in North and Northeast Philadelphia in places like Fairhill and Hunting Park, in areas that are more conservative like South Philadelphia, and with police unions.
Krasner will perform best with Progressives and African Americans where turnout is higher.
I could see Vega winning over working class support in minority communities to narrowly win, especially with the current situation in the city.
Here is my map so far: https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=828150
Asst. DA Carlos Vega (D) - 64,070 votes, 50.69%
Philadelphia District Attorney Lawrence Krasner (D), inc. - 62,325 votes, 49.37%
Strong margins for Vega in NE Philly and droves of cops switching to Dem cost Krasner the nomination. I could be wrong but this is my prediction as of now.
When you hit, you hit well (2016), but when you miss, you miss terribly like today.
Poll
