2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[It’s so Joever]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

Huh?

You read that correctly.
None of the Southeast Three or #Bluexas are happening.

[It’s so Joever]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

Huh?

You read that correctly.
None of the Southeast Three or #Bluexas are happening.

pretty bold statement for multiple states that are all within the margin of error, some trending D.

Just watch.

[It’s so Joever]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

[It’s so Joever]

I hate this election already and not a single state has been called.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1319115514992611328

Useful data, awful design.
Whoever made this graph deserves a thumbs up and the electric chair.

[It’s so Joever]

Biden is winning Texas, losers. Deal with it.

Don’t get my hopes up.

[It’s so Joever]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

 I liked this post because it's funny but I haven't worried about Nevada all election cycle.

Yeah I’m a doomer, but I’m pretty bullish on Biden’s chances in these Western states. Nevada is no exception. They got a Dem trifecta in 2018 and even some Latino movement towards Trump isn’t enough to cancel out the huge suburban hemorrhaging of the GOP.

[It’s so Joever]

Biden is winning Texas, losers. Deal with it.

He just won't. Forumlurker knows that and through him, I now know that as well.

I don't know why he'll lose in Texas outside of it not being there yet, but that's what I've heard and I'm sticking to it.

It'd be foolish to think otherwise

Dude, you will have so much crow to eat after this cycle.
413 is a pipe dream.

Anyways, Trump honestly probably wins in by about 4-5%
I’m not saying it won’t swing, but not to the extent you seem to think it will.

[It’s so Joever]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

May I remind you that the REP turnout in 2016 was 7 points higher than DEM turnout in 2016! We actually discussed that here several days ago. Yes, REPs may and probably will eventually catch up to DEMs in FL, but it's still going to be a big improvement for DEMs compared to 2016.

There will likely be a huge surge of Trump voters on Election Day. We need a strong margin with the total EV+VBM to cancel that out.

[It’s so Joever]

Iowa early voting stats has been updated.
IA-1
D 92664
R 47015
D+ 45649

IA-2
D  91775
R 46603
D+ 45172

IA-3
D 92411
R 48850
D+ 43561

IA-4
D 59930
R 57118
D+ 2812

Total
D 336780
R 199586
D+ 137194
Total 649483 people voted early

D have added another 1500 votes to their lead.

R are slowly closing return rate gap with Dem. They have cut D's advantage in IA 4 from 4300 yesterday to 2800 today but still lose the day to Dem due to Dem's strength in other three districts.

POLOK county still has relatively low return rate Dem should concentrate on that county to increase their lead more.

860393 people requested for early voting. Yesterday it was 842000 ,so 18000 new people requested early vote. If the momentum continue another 150000 people will request ballots.

Therefore I think more than 1 million Iowan will vote early. Which is around 64% of 2016.

Well known bellwether, Polok County IA will tell us who wins this election.
I think the media should cover it a bit more considering how pivotal the margins here are.

[It’s so Joever]

Your daily AZ update. 1.3 million ballots. Ds lead by 127k over Rs. Not looking like 2018 or 2016 here in the desert.

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1319361665444409345

Can we officially declare Marthy McSally toast?

I think that was established back in like, June.

[It’s so Joever]

So what’s the Atlas spin on how Democrats benefitted from Florida voting today?

[It’s so Joever]

Florida in-person EV: Day 4 as of 4:20 PM

Rep 111,769  (+41,320)
Dem 70,449
NPA/Other 43,246
Total 225,464

Cumulative total

Rep 595,191  (+132,220)
Dem 462,971
NPA/Other 228,136
Total 1,286,298

Clearly good for Biden. I expect him to win statewide by double digits and flip Brevard/Polk/Sarasota/Volusia/Lake County.

[It’s so Joever]

I feel like citing raw # of lead in Florida rather than by % to portray the dynamics of the race is misguided.
Just look at the Siena/NYT poll.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/flpa-0930-crosstabs/16c21b7ab34ed4d1/full.pdf

Vote intention (D/R/I)

Mail (42/24/38)
Early voting in person (34/23/25)
Voting on election day (18/48/35)

In other words, Democrats are supposed to have a lead in both mail and early voting in person. The fact that Republicans are outpacing in early voting so far might mean that either greater % of Republicans than estimated are demonizing mail voting, or that Democrats are over-worried about covid and sticking to mail voting.*

The latter seems unlikely to me, at least enough to the point that it skews the picture of the race. Not a doomer, but I'm not sure that Democrats are doing as well as people are suggesting.

Edited*

This.
It seems a lot of people forget Dems are supposed to be leading in early voting judging by polls.

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.