COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[It’s so Joever]

My estimate is somewhere in between.
I think we will have found a compelling vaccine candidate by late June, it will be proven effective sometime by September, and companies already will have produced it even before, allowing healthcare workers to have access to it by November.
Other high-risk groups probably will get it by January, with the general populace receiving it throughout Spring next year.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1187829299207954437

A reminder that it didn't need to be this way.

Well of course no country on earth is prepared for a pandemic if you ask government epidemiologists and big pharma lobbyists.  How else would they get their $$$? 

This is like when the American Academy of Civil Engineers every year gives the vast majority of states a bad grade on road infrastructure.  Serious risk-seeking and adverse incentives are at play.   

As someone who’s parents worked with the NIH, you are absolutely insane. Government epidemiologists and NIH workers are so limited they can’t even do things that seem perfectly ethical and normal, much less can they even think about being paid to shill. There are so many regulations preventing that, it just doesn’t happen. Of course, facts don’t matter when you are pushing an anti-scientist narrative.

[It’s so Joever]

The AACE gives most states a bad grade because most states have absolutely abysmal roads, thanks to tax cuts etc.

That's exactly what the AACE wants you to think

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1187829299207954437

A reminder that it didn't need to be this way.

Well of course no country on earth is prepared for a pandemic if you ask government epidemiologists and big pharma lobbyists.  How else would they get their $$$? 

This is like when the American Academy of Civil Engineers every year gives the vast majority of states a bad grade on road infrastructure.  Serious risk-seeking and adverse incentives are at play.   

As someone who’s parents worked with the NIH, you are absolutely insane. Government epidemiologists and NIH workers are so limited they can’t even do things that seem perfectly ethical and normal, much less can they even think about being paid to shill. There are so many regulations preventing that, it just doesn’t happen. Of course, facts don’t matter when you are pushing an anti-scientist narrative.

As someone who has worked in both Federal and state executive service, what makes you think I don’t know what the functions of regulatory big-wigs are?  Self-preservation is the name of the game.  Government agencies and their associated professional/interest groups constantly lobby for increased resources.  Saying your regulatory area is chronically underserved is one of the best ways to do that.  The CDC or NIH are no different.

I swear, for a political forum it never ceases to amaze me the juvenile approach many take to politics here.  This isn’t a conspiracy, just a general note on agency dynamics and intergovernmental lobbying you would have learned in any 300 level poli sci class at a third-rate commuter college.  The NIH and CDC aren’t exempted from iron triangles because doctors are “good guys” or whatever. 

"People always overestimate the importance of what they do, so I will disregard experts when they talk about their fields?" That has got to be one of the laziest ways of dismissing experts I've ever seen. Pretty sure you only troth that one out when experts say something you disagree with though. When Elon Musk was criticizing safety regulations you applauded him instead of noting disregarding regulations would make him money. 

I also note that you didn't even attempt to engage on the substance. That would have been pretty hard given how the lack of preparedness for pandemics is being demonstrated every day this thing goes on. No, just tried to get in a swipe at experts. You can't deny the inconvenient truths, but you sure can shoot the messenger.

I don't have time for some international public health NGO that peddles alarmist reporting saying that 195 countries (depending on how you count, that's more than all of them) are unprepared for a global pandemic in an attempt to lobby the WHO for funding for their own pet projects.  Experts can be powerful advocates for their fields, but Joe Biden blindly parroting their motivated statistics to score points against Trump ain't gonna be fooling me.

Also, I never defend Elon Musk in the Telsa thread (on the contrary, I think I made it quite obvious that I don't personally care for him at all).  What I noted is that we should expect him to maximize profits, and that probably at some point would involve relocation of his investment into a non-shutdown state.  This sort of profit-maximizing is the same behavior public health interests are engaging in when they push panic narratives, too.  It's the same thing.

The "inconvenient truth" of the matter is that COVID-19 is a novel disease that was going to wreck havoc no matter what.  Unlike Ebola (referenced about in the thread), we couldn't anticipate where it would emerge or start with much preexisting knowledge about its pathology.  It's proven to be much more serious than H1N1.  The 2010s epidemics are imperfect comparisons for these reasons.  A stance of constant goal pandemic preparedness is an unjustifiable money pit.  Spending to mitigate risks has to be discounted by their likelihood, which is why we don't spend billions of dollars a year on preparing for asteroid impacts or first contact, either. 

To compare the chances of a pandemic vs the chances of an asteroid hitting is absolutely ridiculous. Given how interconnected our society is, our modern agricultural practices, and the way we interact with nature, pandemics are inevitable and need to be prepared for. Honestly, we got lucky with Covid-19, as awful as it is, it could have been much worse. If we learn anything from this, it’s that we always monitor for strange patterns in public health and foster international cooperation in fighting pandemics.

Covid-19 was no fluke, it’s a growing threat and you can expect more disease outbreaks (although most not as severe hopefully) in the future.
Humanity’s second greatest chance of extinction is probably some sort of virus, whether it be natural or a bioweapon.

[It’s so Joever]

The stories have been mostly separate, but I'm worried all these protests/riots could fuel some big spikes in cases or even outbreaks.

Oh they absolutely will. Unfortunately, the Twitterverse and media probably won’t report on it.

[It’s so Joever]

Just from the numbers we have as of now, today is gearing up to be a terrible day in terms of new cases. This probably is due to a combination of increased testing, and a possible mini spike from reopenings. If the second is true, cases will continue to look worse than they were 7 days ago throughout next week.

[It’s so Joever]

Just from the numbers we have as of now, today is gearing up to be a terrible day in terms of new cases. This probably is due to a combination of increased testing, and a possible mini spike from reopenings. If the second is true, cases will continue to look worse than they were 7 days ago throughout next week.

Just a comment on the second part, definitely not directed at you specifically.  But there seems to be a sense of surprise in some quarters that cases are ticking back up following reopening in some areas.  How could anyone not have expected that to happen?  The level of interpersonal contact is increasing while the population is just as susceptible as ever, except perhaps in a few places like NYC that may have achieved a limited degree of herd immunity.  Did some people expect the virus to give us credit for good behavior the past several weeks and become less infectious?

After a few weeks of posting woke messages on staying home on social media, they decided the virus suddenly stopped existing thanks to their internet activism. It’s like some people don’t even realize the pandemic is still killing about a thousand a day.

[It’s so Joever]

I guess you don’t need to social distance if you’re protesting.
I guess you don’t need to follow curfews if you’re protesting.
I guess you don’t care about tying up vital emergency services if you’re protesting.
So much for all the Coronavirus bullish**t of the last few months.

I guess all the restrictions you put on others don’t apply to yourself. But at least you’re wearing your mask.

If you remove the fourth line, you actually have a point.
The protestors are hypocritical and shouldn’t be doing this right now.

[It’s so Joever]

There will either be a massive spike in cases coming up, or we just shut down part of the economy for two months for no reason.

Cases are already showing signs of rising, so don’t get too hopeful.

[It’s so Joever]

There will either be a massive spike in cases coming up, or we just shut down part of the economy for two months for no reason.

Cases are already showing signs of rising, so don’t get too hopeful.

No? Where are you getting this from?

Worldometers 7 day average.
Meanwhile positivity rates have remained pretty stable.
Maybe it’s a blip, but considering the overall slowing of our decline, I doubt it.

[It’s so Joever]

We have now reached a plateau, which is actually horrible news considering how we are still at 20k cases per day on a good day.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1267517520828825603

Michigan did a really good job.

Considering where they were a month ago, for sure. Kinda like how Washington went from a tragedy to a success story.

[It’s so Joever]

The 7 day average for new cases is continuing to slowly rise.
Although today is a bit higher than it should be because Massachusetts has a case dump.

[It’s so Joever]

The 7 day average for new cases is continuing to slowly rise.
Although today is a bit higher than it should be because Massachusetts has a case dump.

Where are you getting this from? Nate Silver has today's case numbers falling to a record low, 16K.

I don’t know how Nate Silver gets his data, and he probably omitted the MA case dump due to criteria changes, but I use Worldometers.

[It’s so Joever]

The fact both political parties seem to want to ignore the pandemic shows how far astray America has gone. This is a failed nation, with a failing people. It’s a shame nobody cares that 1k Americans are dying each day from Covid anymore. BLM is a disgrace to America and is complicit in the spreading of this pandemic.

[It’s so Joever]

The fact both political parties seem to want to ignore the pandemic shows how far astray America has gone. This is a failed nation, with a failing people. It’s a shame nobody cares that 1k Americans are dying each day from Covid anymore. BLM is a disgrace to America and is complicit in the spreading of this pandemic.

Weren't you arguing against the lockdowns when it was white people going out in droves?

?
I’ve been consistently pro-lockdown. You must have me confused with someone else, being strongly pro-lockdown is literally what distinguishes me here.

[It’s so Joever]

We’ve been at the 20k new case and 1k death plateau for a good while now

Don’t worry, the protests will change that in about ten days.

[It’s so Joever]

The jump will happen much later, probably sometime between June 12-17, but when it hits, it will be noticeable and this thread will come back to life.

[It’s so Joever]

Ugh, so many people without masks including inside stores.

Yeah, that's where we're at. At this point, I'm fine with it.

20,000 cases per day is where we were when we had the lockdowns begin in most places. Just because the media doesn’t report on it anymore (too busy looking woke) doesn’t mean it isn’t a threat.
These protests will also make it even worse (which is why they deserve whatever Trump throws at them)
Masks should be mandatory at this point, we are still seeing high case growth.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/MelissaBlasius/status/1269020760393146374

What happens if they reach capacity?

Either they are lucky and able to transport some patients to more equipped areas, or they have to decide who dies.
This is why you f**king listen to Dr Fauci when he says to keep social distancing.
Shouldn’t have celebrated Memorial Day in crowded venues, Arizona.

[It’s so Joever]

I was a supporter of the restrictions, but the political motivations and double standards of these "experts" has resulted in me cutting my support. I don't want to hear any more "6 ft apart" or "wear a mask". I will be doing neither. F*** you and your agenda.

See liberals?
This is why you don’t break your own advise during a goddamn pandemic. Now reasonable people are doing unreasonable things because you had to go smash windows.

[It’s so Joever]

In other words, they're snowflakes.  It's reprehensible to be against other people choosing not to risk their health just because they don't want to be reminded of the virus.  It's not over!

Well, I can't stop someone from masking up. But a lot of people see it and it really hurts morale.

It also hurts morale to kill granny.

[It’s so Joever]

I was a supporter of the restrictions, but the political motivations and double standards of these "experts" has resulted in me cutting my support. I don't want to hear any more "6 ft apart" or "wear a mask". I will be doing neither. F*** you and your agenda.

Sorry but that's an incredibly embarrassing reason to stop supporting restrictions.

He has a point. The sheer amount of hypocrisy is outrageous and astounding.
I am outraged at all sides at this point, it’s clear saving lives doesn’t matter to anyone in America, and just like the Pro-life GOPers are hypocrites, the Black Lives Matter rioters are hypocrites for going into large crowds during a pandemic that has killed 23k of the lives that matter.

I think Grassroots is being hasty and is acting irrational right now, but he has a good point. When will other Democrats denounce these protests as what they are,  intentional spreading of a deadly disease?

[It’s so Joever]

I was a supporter of the restrictions, but the political motivations and double standards of these "experts" has resulted in me cutting my support. I don't want to hear any more "6 ft apart" or "wear a mask". I will be doing neither. F*** you and your agenda.

Sorry but that's an incredibly embarrassing reason to stop supporting restrictions.

He has a point. The sheer amount of hypocrisy is outrageous and astounding.
I am outraged at all sides at this point, it’s clear saving lives doesn’t matter to anyone in America, and just like the Pro-life GOPers are hypocrites, the Black Lives Matter rioters are hypocrites for going into large crowds during a pandemic that has killed 23k of the lives that matter.

I think Grassroots is being hasty and is acting irrational right now, but he has a good point. When will other Democrats denounce these protests as what they are,  intentional spreading of a deadly disease?

It looks to me like almost everyone at these protests is wearing a mask.



And in any case, it is not hypocritical to make a conscious decision that certain causes or principles are worth risking your life over.

Wearing a mask can only help so much when you are literally screaming at the top of your lungs while standing shoulder-to-shoulder in a cramped formation of thousands.

And sure, risking your life for a cause you believe in is wonderful, but this is going to kill hundreds-thousands of people who simply weren’t involved, who didn’t get that choice.

Keep in mind 23,000 black lives have been lost from this virus. Why are these protestors exacerbating a pandemic which is killing nearly 100x more black Americans in 2.5 months than the police do in a year?
Either these protestors are hypocritical, don’t really care about black lives and just want an excuse to say “guvment bad”, or are ignorant.

[It’s so Joever]

Not sure if this has already been posted here or in another thread, but more than 1000 health professionals signed a letter supporting the BLM protests, but saying that *other* protests are still not good from a coronavirus perspective:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

"However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from demonstrators' ability to gather and demand change. This should not be confused with a permissive stance on all gatherings, particularly protests against stay-home orders."

This is what happens when political culture silences the majority of experts who do disagree with these protests. Let’s be honest, if a healthcare worker or epidemiologist said anything even slightly against these protests, he/she would be the target of a witch-hunting mob and would possibly lose their job.
We really are living in a post-factual society on both sides at this point.

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1269762435713556481

Indeed, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico are suddenly jumping. For two months, Colorado was by far the worst of the Four-Corner States, but things have changed suddenly over the past few weeks.