Democratic Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[RJEvans]

I took tomorrow off from work, so I can follow this thing the whole night ...

You prepared for the curb stomping Sanders is about to get from HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON?

Everyone keeps expecting this. What if he wins VT, MN, CO, OK and MA? He can spin that and drive momentum his way. He'll be down in delegates, yes, but the narrative will be Clinton could not put Sanders away. Meanwhile he goes on to win KS, NE and ME this weekend. He keeps collecting money, keeps driving issues left, keeps racking up delegates and keeps the race going.

[RJEvans]

CNN TV just said that the %age of Dem. primary voters who are black in these states are:

ga 46% black
al 47% black
ma 4% black

That is very low. Possible Bernie comeback?

[RJEvans]

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/704797310052597760

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That looks like a Bernie win to me.

[RJEvans]

Holy HELL I cannot stand Chris Mathews......

What did he say?

[RJEvans]

Sanders campaign manager vows to take campaign to the convention.

They have the money to do it.

[RJEvans]

Yeah, Bernie is even carrying Denver. No way Clinton can come back at this point.

Well we knew Bernie will do well in the caucus states. He'll win KS, NE and ME (total of 97 delegates) this weekend too. Clinton is positioned well for LA, MI and MS (total of 247 delegates).

[RJEvans]

Well good for Bernie to keep the hope alive, but lets look at MN, where he is winning by 19 points. CNN has awarded him 36 delegates to Clinton's 28, for an 8 delegate lead for Bernie (13 delegates remain to be allocated). These delegate margins are just too small. He'll need to win in places like PA, OH, MI and the West if he wants to win the nomination.

[RJEvans]

Looking at the map, Bernie should have pumped some money into Western Virginia. He was within 5% in both the 6th and 9th congressional districts. Maybe could have made it more respectable.

Lessons learned. He raised $40+ million. I'm sure he'll start to use his dollars more wisely and strategically.

[RJEvans]

According to 538, this is how Bernie performed relative to his benchmarks:

CO: +6
OK: +6
MN: -1
VT: -11
MA: -14
GA: -16
VA: -20
TX: -22
AR: -25
TN: -35
AL: -41

Looks like a landslide folks.

Dude you'r fake. He won 87% of Votes in VT & he under-performed by 11% - What was he supposed to get? 98%

Where is the link? Do not come up with fake data to spread your message - Disgusting

Dude, chill.

Do not accuse someone of being disingenuous without facts.

The benchmarks were posted at 10:50pm

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-11918052

[RJEvans]

Actual Numbers vs 538 -

Vs Polling Average -
(Sanders)
Alabama -6%
Arkansas -2%
Georgia +0%  (+0.3)
Mass +5%
Okla +3.5%
Tenn 0%(+0.4%)
Texas -1.5%
Vermont +1.5%
Virginia +0% (+0.2%)

No Polls for MN & CO

538 gave a tough target to Sanders to win the nomination(if tied nationally & he is 10% odd behind)

MN (Target - 60%) (Actual - 60%)
Co (Target - 55%) (Actual - 58%) - +3%

Alabama is the only state Where Sanders has out-performed by 6%.

Most states he has out-performed the polls including beating a very tough target in MN & CO.

Overall average he has out-performed

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-democratic-presidential-election-2016/
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-03-01

The purpose of the bechmarks is to gauge Bernie's performance against Clinton, not himself, in order to reach the requisite number of delegates to win the nomination. So for example, as of 2 hours ago, the benchmark for Bernie in MA was Sanders +11. In other words, he needed to win MA by 11 points. The result (as of 2 hours ago provided in the link above) shows Clinton winning MA by 3. In other words, in MA, the target was 14 points in favor of Clinton.

[RJEvans]

Sanders "underperforming" his target in VT is literally meaningless since it resulted in 0 change of delegates. And it's not as if the media will call VT a disappointment for Sanders.

Clinton hacks are now comparing results vs FB Likes n stuff - No morals, No dignity even while winning!

What are you on about?