Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

From what I'm aware, privatizing Petrobras now would be a disaster. The company has massive debts and massive mismanagement, so no sane private investor would accept this amount of debt without any kind of government responsibility. And the Brazilian state doesn't have enough money to give any assurance to private investors, so a privatization of the company in this state, would be a disaster for the country's public accounts. Banco do Brasil, I believe, is similar to my country's Caixa Geral de Depósitos, a public bank but with some private investors. However, here there's a constant discussion about a possible privatization because Caixa acts just like any other private bank, not sure what's the Banco do Brasil actions.

I'm commenting less on Petrobas specifically, but while you're right that the company does have major debts, there are models that get around that (ie, assuming some portion of the debt and selling the remainder, etc..). But the bigger point is that the assumption that only a crazy right winger could support privatization is wrong.

Doria is actually even more right-wing than Leite in the policies though, that’s the funny thing. It’s only the COVID and vaccination debacle that changes perceptions because nowadays positioning yourself against Bolsonaro is perceived as the ultimate measurement lol

Leite is supported by Aécio Neves group and he hasn’t been using Anti-Bolsonaro rhetoric like Doria, which makes him more disliked by the left. But Doria is the one who already voiced some crazy economic right wing stuff, like privatizing major companies like Banco do Brasil and Petrobras, which is just insane. Leite, even if personally favorable, said this wouldn’t be a topic of his mandate because there are more urgent reforms to pay attention to.

So in the end, there isn’t much difference tbh, it’s again that distinction between policies vs rhetoric. I guess Leite LOOKS more conservative because of his less threatening rhetoric against Bolsonaro, but Doria is the one more conservative one in practice. Doris’s attacks on Bolsonaro are politically strategical and opportunist after his BolsoDoria campaign in 2018.

I would rather have Leite winning even though I dislike both.

Crazy = doing things every other civilized country already does?

Brazil (or Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran or even China) is not US or UK in their international economic stand, so yeah. Extremely cray cray to think Brazil is like those countries.

Even in a rich country like France, the liberalization process is something that happened with extremely ACTIVE State participation in order to protect national sovereignty on the oil production. Not that this discussion is something conservatives care much about, as they’re completely incompetent in dealing with the economy other than in a simple cash flow way that only thinks about a short term period strategy (or even none at all, as Mike pointed out).

Right, and every one of those countries has dealt with major problems from state owned companies (PEMEX oil spills, PEMEX losses, Aramco profits falling, Gazprom corruption, Iran inefficiency, France slow growth + stagnation), and 2/5 of China's top oil companies are private. Having a private oil or banking supply by no means means that national security is at stake: Norway, Canada, the US, and more have all balanced the two, nor does it mean one is only thinking of short term interests (the US has never had a state run banking system, and neither has the UK).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

Brazilian left-wingers implying that Macron beating Le Pen -> Lula beating Bolsonaro is top-tier Atlas posting.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

There are Brazilian presidential elections in every 4 years and French presidential election in every 5 years. So, in every 20 years, French and Brazilian presidential elections take place in the same year.

In 2002, Lula endorsed Jospin, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Chirac) and a Le Pen. Chirac won a landslide. Lula won a landslide.

In 2022, Lula endorsed Mélenchon, but he failed to go to the runoff by a small margin. The runoff was between a candidate close to the center (Macron) and a Le Pen. Macron won an almost landslide...

In the 2022 runoff, Lula endorsed Macron, who retweeted this endorsement.

Brazilian left-wingers implying that Macron beating Le Pen -> Lula beating Bolsonaro is top-tier Atlas posting.

Let us know what you think when Bolsonaro wins.

I don't think Bolsonaro will win. I also don't think that Macron beating Le Pen is proof he will lose.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

My god, I don't usually disagree with the ideological tilt of the Economist when it comes to America, western Europe, etc. but they really do become deranged neoliberals when it comes to South America. Disturbing stuff!

Huh? The Economist endorsed Lula. I'm not sure what you're referencing here. I would also hardly call it "deranged neoliberal" to endorse Bolsonaro either.