Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.
Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Beto isn't winning Texas in 2022 barring a miracle, but I'd argue fixing godawful turnout in downtown Dallas and Houston would ultimately go a lot further. Ironically, Austin is really the only majour Texas city with good turnout in hyper D areas (prolly because white liberals).
Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.
I think this is sorta a simillar thing to Georgia where Dems technically had the votes to win statewide for a while, it's just turnout in Atlanta was dreadful relative to the rest of the state. Yes the strong swings in GA-06 and GA-07 helped but the number of votes Biden net over Obama in the 3 core Atlanta districts (4, 5, and 13) is insane in comparison.
Also worth noting Davis did end outperforming Obama in Austin and Dallas suburbs (in terms of % margin) but pretty much underperformed everywhere else lol.
There's no reason to think that being more liberal is the key to turning out currently non-voting urban voters.
Poll
