2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Libertas Vel Mors]

How come you are all keeping the CA-21 gerrymander largely intact?

You have to have a district here that can elect a candidate of choice for the Latino community.

I made sure of that in the IE as well (I gave Torres and Aguilar majority-HCVAP seats as well). This is why I took Mono out of the Rural San Bernardino district and added Redlands to it.

It's not as necessary to do that in places that already elect Latinos. The Central Valley has never sent a Latino to Congress.

Valadao?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

How come you are all keeping the CA-21 gerrymander largely intact?

You have to have a district here that can elect a candidate of choice for the Latino community.

I made sure of that in the IE as well (I gave Torres and Aguilar majority-HCVAP seats as well). This is why I took Mono out of the Rural San Bernardino district and added Redlands to it.

It's not as necessary to do that in places that already elect Latinos. The Central Valley has never sent a Latino to Congress.

Valadao?

He's Portuguese, not Latino.

....

Really? You're going to try to create that distinction?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/WeDrawTheLines/status/1455402451771674625

It's... marginally better than the previous viz? Progress!

Viz 1, 45-7 Biden



Viz 2, 46-6 Biden



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1ec729a6-1868-4d7d-a0c4-16f254943881


Getting closer to the beautiful 49-3!

What is the COI justification for splitting the San Diego East County three ways and denying Republicans even a single seat?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Uh I wouldn’t exactly call Kim’s district a GOP vote sink; looks like it only went to Trump by 5 or so. Steele’s looks like Biden + 4ish and Porter like Biden + 14 or smtg

That is a GOP vote sink by Orange County/Young Kim standards. Young Kim currently represents a Biden +10 district where she won by 1.2, and Orange County in general and Northeast OC/Korean-American Southeast LA were both favorable/very favorable to ticket-splitting in 2020, so giving Kim a Trump seat of any kind, let alone a Trump +5 one, is a "sink."

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The new SAVANAANA seat seems pretty interesting. I wonder if Steel runs here if the lines remain as they are: It's 41% Asian, Clinton +13.2, Newsom +0.8, and Biden +6.1, while the new Porter/Steel coastal seat is Clinton +7.6, Newsom +3, and Biden +11.1.

On a side note, even if OC Asians have different voting habits than other Asians, it's still crazy to me that the SAVANAANA/NOCOAST seats have gone from SAVANAANA being 6 points bluer to 5 points redder over just 4 years, especially once considering that the NOCOAST seat is still majority White and actually has a higher White + Asian % than SAVANAANA.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Also, TBH it wouldn't surprise me if Porter lost under this map. Her new district would be Biden +11, but a lot redder downballot (just Newsom +3), she's very left-wing, and by my count a majority of her district is new territory.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Sadhwani is the obvious Dem hack on the commission.

snip

Seems like a large part of her map proposal came from this one.

The Orange County to Long Beach and Orange County to Central Los Angeles districts are pretty funny. What kind of community of interest includes Northeast Orange County and Urban Los Angeles in one district?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Sadhwani is the obvious Dem hack on the commission.

snip
Seems like a large part of her map proposal came from this one.

The Orange County to Long Beach and Orange County to Central Los Angeles districts are pretty funny. What kind of community of interest includes Northeast Orange County and Urban Los Angeles in one district?

I don’t think the light blue district extends into Orange County. It seems to stop at the county line. The dark brown district looks like the new CA-39 and seems centered on the more hilly, more suburban tripoint between Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino Counties.

I'm referring to the Dark Brown district. And yeah, it doesn't go fully into Los Angeles, but it still goes far too deeply into the county.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Sadhwani is the obvious Dem hack on the commission.

https://twitter.com/eqca/status/1469467044231860224

Seems like a large part of her map proposal came from this one.

More than just her. Check out some of the others, for instance:

Isra is currently a Senior Research Evaluation Specialist with Santa Clara County’s Division of Equity and Social Justice. In this role, she leads the intersectional research efforts across the 7 different offices within the Division: Offices of Women’s Policy, Immigrant Relations, Cultural Competency, Labor Standard Enforcement, LGBTQ Affairs, 2020 Census and Gender-Based Violence Prevention. Previously, Isra served as the lead evaluator for the County’s Tobacco Control Program. She has worked for over 9 years in the community organizing, research and policy, to address the inequities related to adverse health impacts from tobacco products in a variety of places including, California Youth Advocacy Network, Stanford Prevention Research Center, Tobacco Related Disease Research Program at the University of California Office of the President, The Truth Initiative and her academic alma maters. Isra earned her A.A. from De Anza Community College, her B.S. in Health Science from San José State University, and her Masters in Public Health in Epidemiology/Biostatistics from U.C. Berkeley. In her free time, Isra enjoys hiking and spending time with her family and friends. She is registered to vote as No Party Preference and lives in San José.

A "independent" who works for the Santa Clara County Division of Equity and Social Justice

Linda Akutagawa is President and CEO of LEAP (Leadership Education for Asian Pacifics). A passionate social entrepreneur for over 25 years and beneficiary of LEAP’s leadership programming, she is a believer in the value, and urgent need, for diverse, equitable, and inclusive leadership. Through LEAP, Linda has dedicated herself to continuing the cycle of leadership development and inspiring Asian and Pacific Islanders to step up to leadership roles across sectors, industries, and communities.

She is the Chair of the Alliance for Board Diversity and an appointed member of the California Department of Insurance Diversity Task Force. She is also a member of the Asian/Asian American Institute Advisory Board at California State University at Los Angeles as well as a Board member of the Asian Pacific Planning and Policy Council.

She’s a nationally recognized speaker and facilitator on leadership, diversity, equity, and inclusion, nonprofits, and board governance. Linda received her B.S. in International Business with a minor in Economics from California State University at Los Angeles. She has a Certificate in Nonprofit Board Consulting through Boardsource. She is married and a furmom to her cockapoo and aunty to eleven nephews and nieces. She is registered as No Party Preference.

Another "independent" who leads the "Alliance for Board Diversity" and is a member of a state diversity task force.

A century ago, Dr. Yee’s ancestors left southern China for “Gum Saan” (“Gold Mountain”). They settled in Oakland, where his parents and then he and his brothers were all born and raised.

He graduated from Oakland High School, UC Berkeley (BS), Dallas Theological Seminary (ThM), and the Graduate Theological Union (PhD), where his research focused on sociolinguistic aspects of liturgical and free worship. He has taught mostly for Fuller Theological Seminary and especially enjoys teaching his class on Oakland for St. Mary’s College.

He’s the author of Worship on the Way (2012), which explores worship in Asian and South East Asian North American churches. He pastored a church for ten years and is active in his present multicultural church community, which wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness.

He’s a longtime history docent at the Oakland Museum of California, with a special interest in the state’s indigenous peoples. He was the first board secretary for Habitat for Humanity East Bay (now East Bay/Silicon Valley). An avid marathon runner, he volunteers with Running for a Better Oakland, a youth sports and scholarship program.

He lives in Oakland with his wife, Dr. Lisa Yee, who is a physician at a community health center. He is registered with the Republican Party.

A "Republican" who "wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness."

Oh, and fun follow-up: Sadhwani literally has Latinx in her bio

Sara Sadhwani is an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College specializing in American politics, racial and ethnic politics, and public policy. Her research has been published in the peer reviewed journals such as the Journal of Politics, Political Behavior, California Journal of Politics and Policy, and Politics, Groups, and Identities. Her analysis of Asian American and Latinx voting behavior in California elections has been featured in the Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, Vox, NBC News, HuffPost and many others.

I intentionally didn't mention any of the Democrats here but when 2 of your independents are openly very left wing and one of your Republicans is clearly a Republican-In-Name-Only it should be no surprise that the commission is drawing maps like this.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Sadhwani is the obvious Dem hack on the commission.

https://twitter.com/eqca/status/1469467044231860224
Seems like a large part of her map proposal came from this one.

More than just her. Check out some of the others, for instance:

Isra is currently a Senior Research Evaluation Specialist with Santa Clara County’s Division of Equity and Social Justice. In this role, she leads the intersectional research efforts across the 7 different offices within the Division: Offices of Women’s Policy, Immigrant Relations, Cultural Competency, Labor Standard Enforcement, LGBTQ Affairs, 2020 Census and Gender-Based Violence Prevention. Previously, Isra served as the lead evaluator for the County’s Tobacco Control Program. She has worked for over 9 years in the community organizing, research and policy, to address the inequities related to adverse health impacts from tobacco products in a variety of places including, California Youth Advocacy Network, Stanford Prevention Research Center, Tobacco Related Disease Research Program at the University of California Office of the President, The Truth Initiative and her academic alma maters. Isra earned her A.A. from De Anza Community College, her B.S. in Health Science from San José State University, and her Masters in Public Health in Epidemiology/Biostatistics from U.C. Berkeley. In her free time, Isra enjoys hiking and spending time with her family and friends. She is registered to vote as No Party Preference and lives in San José.

A "independent" who works for the Santa Clara County Division of Equity and Social Justice

Linda Akutagawa is President and CEO of LEAP (Leadership Education for Asian Pacifics). A passionate social entrepreneur for over 25 years and beneficiary of LEAP’s leadership programming, she is a believer in the value, and urgent need, for diverse, equitable, and inclusive leadership. Through LEAP, Linda has dedicated herself to continuing the cycle of leadership development and inspiring Asian and Pacific Islanders to step up to leadership roles across sectors, industries, and communities.

She is the Chair of the Alliance for Board Diversity and an appointed member of the California Department of Insurance Diversity Task Force. She is also a member of the Asian/Asian American Institute Advisory Board at California State University at Los Angeles as well as a Board member of the Asian Pacific Planning and Policy Council.

She’s a nationally recognized speaker and facilitator on leadership, diversity, equity, and inclusion, nonprofits, and board governance. Linda received her B.S. in International Business with a minor in Economics from California State University at Los Angeles. She has a Certificate in Nonprofit Board Consulting through Boardsource. She is married and a furmom to her cockapoo and aunty to eleven nephews and nieces. She is registered as No Party Preference.

Another "independent" who leads the "Alliance for Board Diversity" and is a member of a state diversity task force.

A century ago, Dr. Yee’s ancestors left southern China for “Gum Saan” (“Gold Mountain”). They settled in Oakland, where his parents and then he and his brothers were all born and raised.

He graduated from Oakland High School, UC Berkeley (BS), Dallas Theological Seminary (ThM), and the Graduate Theological Union (PhD), where his research focused on sociolinguistic aspects of liturgical and free worship. He has taught mostly for Fuller Theological Seminary and especially enjoys teaching his class on Oakland for St. Mary’s College.

He’s the author of Worship on the Way (2012), which explores worship in Asian and South East Asian North American churches. He pastored a church for ten years and is active in his present multicultural church community, which wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness.

He’s a longtime history docent at the Oakland Museum of California, with a special interest in the state’s indigenous peoples. He was the first board secretary for Habitat for Humanity East Bay (now East Bay/Silicon Valley). An avid marathon runner, he volunteers with Running for a Better Oakland, a youth sports and scholarship program.

He lives in Oakland with his wife, Dr. Lisa Yee, who is a physician at a community health center. He is registered with the Republican Party.

A "Republican" who "wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness."

Oh, and fun follow-up: Sadhwani literally has Latinx in her bio

Sara Sadhwani is an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College specializing in American politics, racial and ethnic politics, and public policy. Her research has been published in the peer reviewed journals such as the Journal of Politics, Political Behavior, California Journal of Politics and Policy, and Politics, Groups, and Identities. Her analysis of Asian American and Latinx voting behavior in California elections has been featured in the Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, Vox, NBC News, HuffPost and many others.

I intentionally didn't mention any of the Democrats here but when 2 of your independents are openly very left wing and one of your Republicans is clearly a Republican-In-Name-Only it should be no surprise that the commission is drawing maps like this.

If the commission actually wanted to draw a D gerrymander, then they wouldn't be leaving Issa in a winnable seat and moving Porter's seat well to the right.

I mean I don't think they're drawing a crazy map or anything but giving Porter a Biden +11 seat that she may lose anyway doesn't mean it's a fair map just because that seat might vote red in 2022. The commission is cutting an R seat in Fresno, cutting an R seat in Northern LA (admittedly, the Northern LA thing is a lot more justifiable), and turning a red district into a purple swinging left seat in Riverside. In other words, they're taking a 41-7-5 map and turning it into a 43-6-3. Now, admittedly, Republicans might still win some of those 43 blue seats in 2022 -- ie, SAVANAANA and NOCOAST, and SAVANAANA I could see getting redder by the end of the decade, but this is definitely a D leaning map.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Sadhwani is the obvious Dem hack on the commission.

https://twitter.com/eqca/status/1469467044231860224
Seems like a large part of her map proposal came from this one.

More than just her. Check out some of the others, for instance:

Isra is currently a Senior Research Evaluation Specialist with Santa Clara County’s Division of Equity and Social Justice. In this role, she leads the intersectional research efforts across the 7 different offices within the Division: Offices of Women’s Policy, Immigrant Relations, Cultural Competency, Labor Standard Enforcement, LGBTQ Affairs, 2020 Census and Gender-Based Violence Prevention. Previously, Isra served as the lead evaluator for the County’s Tobacco Control Program. She has worked for over 9 years in the community organizing, research and policy, to address the inequities related to adverse health impacts from tobacco products in a variety of places including, California Youth Advocacy Network, Stanford Prevention Research Center, Tobacco Related Disease Research Program at the University of California Office of the President, The Truth Initiative and her academic alma maters. Isra earned her A.A. from De Anza Community College, her B.S. in Health Science from San José State University, and her Masters in Public Health in Epidemiology/Biostatistics from U.C. Berkeley. In her free time, Isra enjoys hiking and spending time with her family and friends. She is registered to vote as No Party Preference and lives in San José.

A "independent" who works for the Santa Clara County Division of Equity and Social Justice

Linda Akutagawa is President and CEO of LEAP (Leadership Education for Asian Pacifics). A passionate social entrepreneur for over 25 years and beneficiary of LEAP’s leadership programming, she is a believer in the value, and urgent need, for diverse, equitable, and inclusive leadership. Through LEAP, Linda has dedicated herself to continuing the cycle of leadership development and inspiring Asian and Pacific Islanders to step up to leadership roles across sectors, industries, and communities.

She is the Chair of the Alliance for Board Diversity and an appointed member of the California Department of Insurance Diversity Task Force. She is also a member of the Asian/Asian American Institute Advisory Board at California State University at Los Angeles as well as a Board member of the Asian Pacific Planning and Policy Council.

She’s a nationally recognized speaker and facilitator on leadership, diversity, equity, and inclusion, nonprofits, and board governance. Linda received her B.S. in International Business with a minor in Economics from California State University at Los Angeles. She has a Certificate in Nonprofit Board Consulting through Boardsource. She is married and a furmom to her cockapoo and aunty to eleven nephews and nieces. She is registered as No Party Preference.

Another "independent" who leads the "Alliance for Board Diversity" and is a member of a state diversity task force.

A century ago, Dr. Yee’s ancestors left southern China for “Gum Saan” (“Gold Mountain”). They settled in Oakland, where his parents and then he and his brothers were all born and raised.

He graduated from Oakland High School, UC Berkeley (BS), Dallas Theological Seminary (ThM), and the Graduate Theological Union (PhD), where his research focused on sociolinguistic aspects of liturgical and free worship. He has taught mostly for Fuller Theological Seminary and especially enjoys teaching his class on Oakland for St. Mary’s College.

He’s the author of Worship on the Way (2012), which explores worship in Asian and South East Asian North American churches. He pastored a church for ten years and is active in his present multicultural church community, which wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness.

He’s a longtime history docent at the Oakland Museum of California, with a special interest in the state’s indigenous peoples. He was the first board secretary for Habitat for Humanity East Bay (now East Bay/Silicon Valley). An avid marathon runner, he volunteers with Running for a Better Oakland, a youth sports and scholarship program.

He lives in Oakland with his wife, Dr. Lisa Yee, who is a physician at a community health center. He is registered with the Republican Party.

A "Republican" who "wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness."

Oh, and fun follow-up: Sadhwani literally has Latinx in her bio

Sara Sadhwani is an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College specializing in American politics, racial and ethnic politics, and public policy. Her research has been published in the peer reviewed journals such as the Journal of Politics, Political Behavior, California Journal of Politics and Policy, and Politics, Groups, and Identities. Her analysis of Asian American and Latinx voting behavior in California elections has been featured in the Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, Vox, NBC News, HuffPost and many others.

I intentionally didn't mention any of the Democrats here but when 2 of your independents are openly very left wing and one of your Republicans is clearly a Republican-In-Name-Only it should be no surprise that the commission is drawing maps like this.

If the commission actually wanted to draw a D gerrymander, then they wouldn't be leaving Issa in a winnable seat and moving Porter's seat well to the right.

I mean I don't think they're drawing a crazy map or anything but giving Porter a Biden +11 seat that she may lose anyway doesn't mean it's a fair map just because that seat might vote red in 2022. The commission is cutting an R seat in Fresno, cutting an R seat in Northern LA (admittedly, the Northern LA thing is a lot more justifiable), and turning a red district into a purple swinging left seat in Riverside. In other words, they're taking a 41-7-5 map and turning it into a 43-6-3. Now, admittedly, Republicans might still win some of those 43 blue seats in 2022 -- ie, SAVANAANA and NOCOAST, and SAVANAANA I could see getting redder by the end of the decade, but this is definitely a D leaning map.

Why do you think it will get redder?

Swung several points to the right 2016-2020 and has a lot of Asians

(Btw, have not forgotten to respond to ProgressiveModerate, just haven't had a chance yet).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A century ago, Dr. Yee’s ancestors left southern China for “Gum Saan” (“Gold Mountain”). They settled in Oakland, where his parents and then he and his brothers were all born and raised.

He graduated from Oakland High School, UC Berkeley (BS), Dallas Theological Seminary (ThM), and the Graduate Theological Union (PhD), where his research focused on sociolinguistic aspects of liturgical and free worship. He has taught mostly for Fuller Theological Seminary and especially enjoys teaching his class on Oakland for St. Mary’s College.

He’s the author of Worship on the Way (2012), which explores worship in Asian and South East Asian North American churches. He pastored a church for ten years and is active in his present multicultural church community, which wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness.

He’s a longtime history docent at the Oakland Museum of California, with a special interest in the state’s indigenous peoples. He was the first board secretary for Habitat for Humanity East Bay (now East Bay/Silicon Valley). An avid marathon runner, he volunteers with Running for a Better Oakland, a youth sports and scholarship program.

He lives in Oakland with his wife, Dr. Lisa Yee, who is a physician at a community health center. He is registered with the Republican Party.

A "Republican" who "wrestles tangibly with matters of social justice, class & race, cultural contextualization, community redevelopment, crime & safety, recovery, re-entry, and homelessness."

I intentionally didn't mention any of the Democrats here but when 2 of your independents are openly very left wing and one of your Republicans is clearly a Republican-In-Name-Only it should be no surprise that the commission is drawing maps like this.

None of these are necessarily partisan issues. These are all legit issues R candidates will have to deal with if they want to become more competitive in currently D-leaning districts.

Now, admittedly, Republicans might still win some of those 43 blue seats in 2022 -- ie, SAVANAANA and NOCOAST, and SAVANAANA I could see getting redder by the end of the decade, but this is definitely a D leaning map.

Why do you think it will get redder?

Yeah I can't see the Westminster-Garden Grove district in this map trending R over the long term, given that the local 2016-2020 R swing was almost entirely due to one-time increased turnout rather than Biden losing raw votes from HRC.

All of those other than crime/safety and homelessness are definitely left-leaning issues, or left-wing labels for the issues. And I'd be wary of building analysis around Biden having more votes than HRC considering that that was true basically everywhere in the country, and for both parties -- ie, Trump got more votes in Morris County NJ in 2020 than 2016, but that doesn't mean the county isn't trending left.