Rate TX-07 for 2020

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe D, even if Sanders is the nominee (yeah, I know this is silly). I was considering Likely D, but I don’t see it.

This district voted cleanly for 1/2 of the statewide Republicans in 2018, and even counting the House, Beto, etc the average margin was only +0.7% D.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Republicans are comfortably winning back the House if they flip this seat, which is really unlikely so I’ll go with Likely D

That's not true. I know uniform swing is an imperfect measure, but this was the 23nd closest D seat in 2018. Factor in NC redistricting and Hurd and districts that previously had strong incumbents like CA-21 and Republicans would be borderline winning the House at around 215-220 if they won this seat.