KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Libertas Vel Mors]

ITT: People forgetting Kansas is more then just Kansas City

[Libertas Vel Mors]

KS has changed politically, even if Pompeo runs, Bollier can win

lul

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Safe R

No it's not, Barb Bollier ia sending me lots of emails saying she can win, which I have donated to

If Barb Bollier is saying she can win, then this race has to be Safe D.

I know right, this quote is hilarious

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Kansans love their radical centrists and middle-aged neoliberal ladies. Barbara Bollier is going to do them proud in the Senate.

D+1.

Is it sarcastic or not?

Sadly no.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Btw, reminder to everyone here that even with Sharice Davids winning by 10 points in 2018 and the 2nd district basically being tied House Rs still won the statewide vote by double digits. Safe R.

Right, this is a very good indicator. Watkins was/is a weak candidate as well so that drug down the numbers a bit.

It also says something about the state demographic vote makeup. If even a stellar performance in KS-01 and almost winning a Trump +20 district isn't enough to even come close to a win statewide, anyone who thinks this race is competitive is fooling themselves.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Marshall wins by 7-12% if he runs a competent campaign (big if), Kobach either loses narrowly or wins by the skin of his teeth (something like a 1% win, at best a MO-SEN 2016 "redux").

Kobach will make this competitive, no doubt whatsoever.

E: Also, I’m getting Heitkamp vibes from Bollier tbh

Marshall wins by Abbott-Davis margins lul

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Marshall wins by 7-12% if he runs a competent campaign (big if), Kobach either loses narrowly or wins by the skin of his teeth (something like a 1% win, at best a MO-SEN 2016 "redux").

Kobach will make this competitive, no doubt whatsoever.

E: Also, I’m getting Heitkamp vibes from Bollier tbh

Marshall wins by Abbott-Davis margins lul

Yeah, Marshall would win by double digits, something like 57/42, MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

muh trends = safe D ks

[Libertas Vel Mors]

MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

I think Marshall would win (not by a landslide though), but I certainly don’t buy the "Titanium R KS" narrative.

1. Kobach is a serious contender for the nomination and probably even a slight favorite. He’s as close to a Kansan version of Roy Moore as you could realistically get.
2. This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country.
3. This particular seat was already competitive with an uncontroversial Republican incumbent in a Republican wave year, and KS has only gotten less Republican since then. 
4. The state is pretty clearly trending Democratic, and Trump doing significantly worse in 2020 than in 2016 will only help Bollier. It’s much easier to overcome a 10-point deficit at the top of the ticket than it is to overcome a 20-point deficit.
5. Bollier is basically the embodiment of the Democrat who has exactly the right profile to win statewide. She fits her state like a glove and has run a pretty good campaign so far.
6. Red states are generally more open to sending candidates from the other party to the Senate than blue states.
7. Even if Marshall wins the nomination, he’ll probably have to move to the right to beat Kobach in the primary, which will hurt him in a general election.

TL;DR: This is not the kind of race Republicans can take for granted.

1. Yes.

2. LOL wew lad. I can't wait for the 2020 WV and MT D Presidential flips and vice versa Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maryland R Presidential flips.

3. Uhh....Pat Roberts was pretty controversial, though for other reasons, like not really living in Kansas. Also, Greg Orman was vastly overhyped by the media and an actual independent, and still lost regardless. Bolliers best case is something like what he got.

4.

Romney 2012 Margin: R+21.61

Trump 2016 Margin: R+20.42

But sure, kAnSaS wIlL bE sInGlE dIgItS

5. The campaign hasn't even begun, and you have absolutely 0 evidence backing that up. Kansas has never elected a Senator like her and has no Congressmen like her. Her demographic profile is fine, but it really will not matter either way.

6. Kansas isn't West Virginia, and it isn't Alaska either.

7. Yes, because being a conservative in Kansas is an election loser lol

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Someone ran the stats on Twitter, and for all the doubters out there even if Kobach performed as badly in 2020 as he did in 2018 in the KC/urban eastern KS counties he would still win if he performed at generic R rural numbers, which oc he will with Trump on the ballot and in a federal race (he'll also likely improve compared to his 2018 performance in KC with higher GOP turnout and a federal race where people vote more partisanly). Safe R at this point in time tbh, Kobach +6 or something.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The KS GOP moderate branch needs to be cleansed with fire, and that's the end of it. Tim Huelskamp 2020.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The KS GOP moderate branch needs to be cleansed with fire, and that's the end of it. Tim Huelskamp 2020.

Wow how dare a moderate state have a moderate ruling party!

Moderate? Kansas voted for Trump by 20 points.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The KS GOP moderate branch needs to be cleansed with fire, and that's the end of it. Tim Huelskamp 2020.

No.

How about we do something else? How about we act like normal people and "cleanse" the GOP of lunatics like Kobach and Huelskamp instead?

How is Tim Huelskamp, who stood for his beliefs even to the point of electoral defeat, worse than party switching, float like a boat, Barbara Bollier?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Wagle is awful. 0 chance. She really did sound like Pelosi. Not forceful or conservative at all. Lindstrom did very well though. Same for Kobach.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Despite being smart enough to know that Kobach could very well lose us the race, the debate sealed the deal for me. I would totally vote for him if I could.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Wagle is awful. 0 chance. She really did sound like Pelosi. Not forceful or conservative at all.

Would it ease your worries if I said Hamilton and Marshall also sounded like they bags over their heads as well?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Wagle is awful. 0 chance. She really did sound like Pelosi. Not forceful or conservative at all. Lindstrom did very well though. Same for Kobach.

Respectfully, I disagree completely - she gave the most clear, policy-driven answers of the lot. Despite Kobach's bogus claim, she has a proven conservative record during her time in the State Senate and has been FAR more effective at implementing conservative policies in the state than he has. She stuck to the issues and didn't attack her opponents. Kobach is an excellent debater - that is what happens when you're an attorney-turned-career politician who loves nothing more than the limelight. It doesn't translate to being able to win in November, or be an effective legislator. I want my representatives to be solution-driven legislators who will work to make deals for the state, not national talking heads who are on Fox News every night.

Being in North Carolina, you know as well how difficult it will be for Republicans to keep the Senate in November. We need a nominee in this race who can win comfortably in November - Marshall and Wagle (and possibly Lindstrom) would do that. Kobach, on the other hand, will keep the race a toss-up and require Republicans to spend a couple million here, money that could be going to help Tillis, Collins and other Republicans who need help.

Wagle may be fine establishment wise, but lord knows she won't be doing any real fighting for conservative values. If I wanted Bollier, I'd vote for Bollier. As for Marshall, he felt untrustworthy as all hell and I didn't like how either of them acted like Democrats, offering goodies like government health insurance or internet access for votes. Lindstrom was fine and I could see myself voting for him (assuming I lived in KS I mean lol), but I'd need to see polls first tbh. Still, Kobach really did amazingly. Reassured every policy concern I had about him. Still, you do make a good point about not wanting to lose Tillis.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Republican internals show Trump trailing in Kansas and all Bollier has to do is make ads with Marshall pictures next to Trump and talk about how he didn't stand up to him. It's not that hard. And @Xing, at this point it looks like it will be a landslide election. Maybe that will change later, but for now, it looks like this is going to a national blowout

Trump is not losing Kansas lmao