Let’s talk about Gavin Newsom 2024.

[The Mikado]

Agreed. He is mainly positioning for 2028, BUT he is also positioning himself to be the guy that steps in if Biden has a health scare or something else makes Biden withdraw over the next few months. It can't be ONLY about 2028 or he wouldn't be making all of these moves in 2023.

It absolutely can. See: Nixon going to the mat campaigning for Goldwater in 64 or Hillary Clinton for Kerry in 04. If you want to run but not THIS time building support with the current nominee is a really good play.

[The Mikado]

Anyway, this gets more ridiculous by the week as the calendar gets later and later.

People know that Oct 16th is Nevada's filing deadline, right? The first in the nation? Why are people still speculating about candidates jumping in at this absurdly late date when he's not even taking the steps he'll need to do to even be capable of running and getting on the ballot?

[The Mikado]

Anyway, this gets more ridiculous by the week as the calendar gets later and later.

People know that Oct 16th is Nevada's filing deadline, right? The first in the nation? Why are people still speculating about candidates jumping in at this absurdly late date when he's not even taking the steps he'll need to do to even be capable of running and getting on the ballot?

You realize if Biden announces his retirement the media will totally ignore the early states right? No, the media will not declare RFK Jr. or Marianne Williamson the front runner under any circumstances.

Newsom can easily win enough delegates in the event Biden steps aside. More importantly, the Democratic Primary is taking place in people’s hearts and he’s winning.

So you're saying he can only win if Biden steps aside, something that has about a 0% chance of happening?

If Gavin Newsom wants the nomination and thinks he can win he should run for it. Given that he's not doing so, the expectation becomes clear that he sees his best path to becoming president as running in 2028.

Joe Biden is not going to "drop out" of the race. If you think Newsom 2024 is going to happen you should be talking about how you think he can beat Joe Biden in the primary, and "not running" isn't going to do the trick there.

[The Mikado]

So you're saying he can only win if Biden steps aside, something that has about a 0% chance of happening?

Bro, it's not a 0% chance. No it isn't. The actuarial tables don't support this.

Leaving that aside, don't act like it's impossible for an 80 year old, who's a lifelong Democratic Party team player (and has much less of an ego at this point) to step aside in favor of new blood. It could happen. Barack Obama will have to arrange a few meetings but it could happen. Yes it could.

I just don't get this. If you've ever read anything written about Joe Biden over the last 40(!) years, it's that the entire purpose of his entire life has been to become President. He's never ever ever going to give this up of his own free will. Ever.

You're left with "Biden dying within the next two months" as your other alternative. Any later and it'll be literally too late for anything other than Harris runs on Biden's ballot line in the primary and takes his delegates.

[The Mikado]

I am going to be relentlessly bumping this thread over the next few months to make fun of you as this proves increasingly ridiculous. You know that, right?

[The Mikado]

What's the Democratic equivalent of Gavin Newsom? In the sense that Newsom is someone who conservatives are obsessed with becoming the nominee in the future but who Democrats don't care about, or at least care significantly less about.

Newsom picked Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis as his rivals and the latter is a better fit than the former. The difference is that Ron! actually tried to run and ran into the problems Newsom would if he ran.

I think Republicans see Newsom as DeSantis but Dem and it's one of the reasons they overvalue his stock.

[The Mikado]

Nevada Democratic Primary ballot finalized:

Dem primary

Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato
Brent Foutz
Marianne Williamson
Stephen Lyons
Joe Biden
Jason Palmer
Donald Picard
Stephen Leon
John Haywood
Gabriel Cornejo
Mark Prascak
Superpayaseria Crystalroc
Frankie Lozada



Funny that I don't see the name Gavin Newsom on here...You'd think if he wanted to run for President he'd file in the state adjacent to CA that any Californian would expect to win.

[The Mikado]

Heatcharger bringing up Newsom's vacation plans to distract from the fact that every week he's not running it gets harder for him to get in. Biden camp puts in strong fundraising results, most of which is usable in the primary if necessary, and would be ready to nuke anyone trying to seriously challenge him if they were foolish enough to try.

Anyway, filing deadlines for South Carolina and Alabama are Nov 10th, 3 weeks from today. Tick tock. He's already missed Nevada and what sort of Californian running for President skips Nevada? (Maybe it's because he isn't running for President).

[The Mikado]

Really quickly: you know who else is going to Israel right now?

Governor Kathy Hochul, D-NY.

Is she also running for President? Or maybe, just maybe, this IS an ordinary thing governors do?

[The Mikado]

Heatcharger, for real for a second, how do you see this working out? If Newsom wants to run in 2024 he has to launch, like, approximately "now." We have had two filing deadlines go by and there's three more (SC and AL on Nov 10th, AR on Nov 14th) within the next three weeks?

If you really think Newsom's going to announce at his Nov 30th debate with DeSantis (which LOL) he's going to really really struggle with the massive amount of filing deadlines in the first half of December, many of which require signatures.

If he were going to run, why isn't he...running? Dean Phillips the Gelato Man is.

[The Mikado]

heatcharger Atlas Icon ★★★★★ Posts: 4,444

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/biden-drops-out-2024.html Congratulations to President Biden on leaving the arena. It looks like Gavin Newsom will announce his campaign shortly.

The Mikado Moderators ★★★★★ Posts: 50,021

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » Um, guys, why is anyone still talking about Gavin Newsom as a potential candidate? How will he possibly get enough delegates to win the nomination?? This isn't 1968 anymore! This is now obviously a race between Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to face Donald Trump this November.

If Biden drops out on April 1st with the primaries being over, Biden's campaign will decide where his delegates go to, not primary voters.

And if Biden dropps out after the Convention, it goes to Harris automatically.

It would be a big "no one voted for X to be my nominee" situation.

Technically if Biden dropped out at that point his delegates become free agents...but the delegates of the Biden campaign will all be people handpicked by the Biden campaign so they'll tend to be people pretty compliant with Biden's instructions. A candidate who dropped out can say who he/she wants the delegates to go to but delegates don't HAVE to follow those instructions.

Anyway, my guess is the delegates hand-selected by the Biden/Harris campaign, deprived of Biden, would go for Harris.

FWIW I think if this happens it's only because Biden literally has a debilitating stroke or heart attack or something (something that's arguably a greater risk for the GOP's rather obese nominee presumptive). He's not going to drop out if he's even remotely physically capable of continuing to run.

[The Mikado]

Gavin Newsom to Rob DeSantis:

"There's one thing we have in common. Neither of us is going to be our party's 2024 Presidential nominee."

Apparently some people here:

"Hm, he sure sounds like he's running."

[The Mikado]

States where it's too late to get on the Democratic primary ballot. Your boy Gavin better start running soon, Heatcharger. I think he's already locked out of a delegate majority!

[The Mikado]

2024 is here. Getting nervous, heatcharger? Your prettyboy sure seems to not be running.

[The Mikado]

States its too late to get on the primary ballot are in red. Gotta be sweating bullets now, Heatcharger. Your prettyboy is pretty clearly not running.

[The Mikado]

Red is too late to get on the ballot. Hard to see how Heatcharger's boy Newsom can challenge Biden at this point. Almost all the primaries have already closed. Biden also has a ton of momentum from winning the first two primaries and it's hard to see how a challenge to him would go very well, and it's not like Newsom would have unique appeal in, like, Nebraska vs Biden.

[The Mikado]

heatcharger Atlas Icon ★★★★★ Posts: 4,444

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/us/politics/biden-drops-out-2024.html Congratulations to President Biden on leaving the arena. It looks like Gavin Newsom will announce his campaign shortly.

The Mikado Moderators ★★★★★ Posts: 50,021

BREAKING: Biden announces he's dropping out, citing age and need to defeat Trump « on: April 1, 2024 1:09:25 pm » Um, guys, why is anyone still talking about Gavin Newsom as a potential candidate? How will he possibly get enough delegates to win the nomination?? This isn't 1968 anymore! This is now obviously a race between Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson to face Donald Trump this November.

Just one month left...

[The Mikado]

Now we're well past Heatcharger's predicted Biden dropout day of April 1st. The final filing deadline in the country of New Jersey has passed. Biden has over three quarters of the delegates and is on track to get over 98% of them by the time this is over and his campaign has 9 digits in the bank.

Heatcharger still thinks that the Biden-Harris campaign is going to unravel and that the tens of millions of dollars of donor money in the Biden-Harris campaign itself is going to have to sit unused as the hundreds of staffers on it are laid off so a new campaign can emerge and have to start over the fundraising and staffing from scratch so a guy who got zero votes can be the nominee. How does that make sense? Also he never factors in that the Biden campaign is choosing who the delegates are and the Biden campaign are interested in remaining employed. They're picking people who, if one half of Biden/Harris dies, will pick the other half so that the campaign can continue and they don't all get laid off.

Somehow in this whole thread heatcharger never responds to any of this and continues posting obnoxious "stay tuned" stuff as each prediction he's made is proven wrong one after another after another and continues to say this increasingly ridiculous nonsense that this race is going to be Trump/Newsom with no explanation of how that's happening or why the Biden/Harris campaign would pick delegates predisposed to Newsom over Harris when that means that the campaign staff all get fired and tens of millions of donor money has to be reraised.