2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[The Mikado]

It's like somehow people refuse to accept that a county's population increasing 15% in just the four years between the 2016 and 2020 elections might have an effect on its political patterns and demography.

Denton's electorate itself is different from what it was in 2016 before you even consider patterns in voters who were already there. if you aren't factoring this in, your opinion is worthless on this subject.

[The Mikado]

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

[The Mikado]

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

Not a Republican (just a “doomer”), but I will take you up on it.
I even will extend it on my end to an entire year if Biden actually somehow wins Texas, and will extend it to four years if Biden breaks 400 EVs (lol)

Sounds good!

What avatar are you going to want me to take if Trump wins TX by more than 2?

[The Mikado]

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

Not a Republican (just a “doomer”), but I will take you up on it.
I even will extend it on my end to an entire year if Biden actually somehow wins Texas, and will extend it to four years if Biden breaks 400 EVs (lol)

Sounds good!

What avatar are you going to want me to take if Trump wins TX by more than 2?

Considering it is his new home state...I guess R-FL would be appropriate.

Perfect. Everyone can mistake me for Fuzzy Bear.

You're on.

[The Mikado]

What do people make of the Colorado turnout numbers?  They look horrendous for Republicans so far.  Cory Garner is definitely losing.

Democrats   380,589
Republicans   207,086
No Party Affiliation   311,269

Yeah, Colorado is probably one of the few places where this year is pretty much like every other year, correct? These #s look horrific for the GOP.

Yeah.  Republicans keep saying "ground game" over and over again but in states that are basically all mail ballots like CO, NJ, etc., their numbers are horrible.  And Colorado has what was supposed to be a battleground senate seat, at least it was when Republicans were building this allegedly amazing voter turnout operation.  

I'm starting to think the red wave ground game talk is just yet another con from the party of pathological liars.

In my experience, ground game is mostly useless in high profile races and campaigns who say their ground game is going to have a major effect on the race are full of sh[inks]. And this is true of both parties (remember when Bernie’s army of volunteers knocking on thousands of doors a day was easily swept aside by Biden’s non-existent campaign?).

Also, if Democrats don't have a ground game, why do I get two texts a day asking me to contact my non-voting friends (as if) to go vote?

Within the last week, I've been contacted by Vote Tripling, MoveOn, the Texas Democratic Party, Stand Up America, Powered By People, the Hegar campaign, and the Allred campaign. Before I voted it was all "Make sure you vote," after I voted all "make sure your friends vote."

For some reason people think that Dem GOTV doesn't exist this year. If that's you, do you even have a phone?

[The Mikado]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

[The Mikado]

Some more TX numbers:

Denton and Collin counties both at 69% of 2016 turnout after today.

Williamson County at 77% of 2016 turnout and at over 44% turnout of overall registered voters.

Tarrant county at 53% of 2016 turnout after today.

Hidalgo County at 62% of 2016 turnout after today.

What does it all mean?

For one thing, things aren't slowing down. Denton and Collin Counties are both up at least 7% from yesterday, as is Williamson. I believe Tarrant went up 6-8% too from yesterday. Tarrant is especially impressive given we are still voting 8-5 while most of the rest of the urban counties are 7-7 now, which we dont switch over to until Saturday.

Right but which candidate does this likely help?  Or is it too soon to say?  

For instance if you told me that Northern Virginia turnout was outpacing downstate, I'd know instantly that is good for Biden because more votes here and more sporadic voters are probably going 3 to 1 for Biden.

Denton and Collin are ex-GOP strongholds that Trump should NARROWLY win (after winning Denton by 20 and Collin by 17 last time...I'd expect Collin to be pretty close to tied this time) Hard anti-Trump trends in those areas but still will likely be GOP carried. Both affluent DFW suburban counties full of college educated people.

Williamson (Trump by 9) and Tarrant (Trump by 8 ) are very likely to be Trump 16-Biden 20 counties (I could still be wrong and Trump could carry Tarrant by the skin of his teeth, but I doubt it. Williamson is just GONE) Williamson is Austin Suburbs, Tarrant is Fort Worth and DFW Suburbs.

Hidalgo is a safe D county for decades in South Texas (McAllen TX, Clinton won the county by 40), but like all of South Texas, is traditionally plagued by s***y voter turnout and as such punches WAY below its theoretical weight in size of the county. If Hidalgo County and neighboring Cameron County (Brownsville) actually show up in force, that's...basically unheard of.

[The Mikado]

If these really are Biden's internals, overconfidence in AZ is, well, overconfident.

Other than ME-02 this is my exact map

Me too, except I am not so sure about North Carolina.  And I think Florida will be a lot tighter because it's Florida.  But everything else looks spot on to me.

Team Biden thinking they're up 3 and a half points in Georgia is the big shocker here.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1318985598787530752

So what I'm hearing out of that is that Dems have to be up by 600k in order to win Florida?

[The Mikado]

I do know some things about Texas politics, fwiw, and you might have remembered me from threads in 2014 or 2016 or 2018 (maybe further back than that!) pouring cold water on "Texas is going blue" ideas. I freely admit that until, like, the last two weeks of 2018 I wasn't taking Beto O'Rourke as seriously as I should've been, but eventually came pretty close to nailing the margin (I had Cruz by 4 at the end, still underestimating Beto but not by a lot).

I'm saying that to say that anyone who isn't taking the prospect of Biden winning Texas this time seriously as a real possibility is not "a spoilsport" or a "pessimist" or something. You're actually just flat out wrong. Trump might well pull off Texas, but if he does, it'll be by the absolute skin of his teeth on a 7 or 8 point swing against him. Trump winning Texas by, like, 5+ points is just not going to happen and you're living under a rock and completely ignorant of what's going on in Texas if you aren't seeing what's happening here.

[The Mikado]

Dallas update:

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1319117999513677824

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1319118866530840582

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319376999459278849

Officially passed the TOTAL number of early votes cast in 2016 and still 12 days out. Voting definitely skewing way earlier this time.

Does Tender or any of the other people spewing the "It's just high propensity voters and cannibalizing E Day, doesn't mean anything for overall turnout" crowd want to change their tune, or do we have to wait for states to start eclipsing their 2016 turnout on early votes alone (which will start happening next week)?

[The Mikado]

These guys are being misleading. Show the daily mail amounts as well

I checked The Daily Mail and...



Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but Trump won. It's hard for me too.