Change Research: Biden +2 in AZ, Biden +3 in FL, Biden +4 in MI, Biden +3 in NC, Biden +2 in PA...

[The Mikado]

Per Change Research:

Country as a whole moves 7 points more Dem vs 2016. (+9 rather than +2)
Arizona moves 5.5 points more Dem
Florida moves 4.3 points more Dem
Michigan moves 4.2 points more Dem
North Carolina moves 6.8 points more Dem
Pennsylvania moves 2.7 points more Dem


So...um...if every one of the swing states is moving less Dem than the national average is moving, the safe states (Republican and Democrat) must be absolutely killing it moving towards Biden in Change Research's world. I'm imagining, like, 15 point Dem swings in Missouri or Tennessee or New Jersey or Washington or etc. It's literally the only way you get these results.

Either that or the state polls just make absolutely no sense in context with the national polls and Change Research isn't a great pollster anyway.

Pick your poison.

Pennsylvania is NOT voting 7 points right of the national average.  Just...no.